Ladakh Flash Point

[twineedle]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1424355253021941765

A higher resolution image of the disengagent area.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1427510731482664964

 

[Maula Jatt]

Just do a territorial settlement treaty between the 3 countries, it's almost the same theater

No one's gaining anything with this millitary bs

Costs are too high for no reason,

 

[Overbom]

Just do a territorial settlement treaty between the 3 countries, it's almost the same theater

No one's gaining anything with this millitary bs

Costs are too high for no reason,

No. India benefits from this because it can increase its value to the US if it can show that it can pressure China and draw its attention away from SCS and Taiwan.

So India wont try to resolve this anytime soon

 

[Mohsin77]

That's ridiculous. You're implying that China was forced to pick this fight because of its friendship with Pakistan. As if India and China would've been best friends if it weren't for Pakistan? lolz

A few posts ago you said that the Chinese are 'very strategic.' Well, good strategists don't "react" into major maneuvers without an actual long-term plan, and China did not react randomly. 370 was the trigger, but the planning for this maneuver started well before 370. China has committed to opening up a whole new theater here because of its own strategic calculus. All the airbases, infantry, armored divisions, and all the infrastructure to support these forces, this is a major strategic investment. You actually think this was all done for Pakistan's sake? Why? Did we save China's life or something? All of this was done because it aligns with China's own sovereign long-term interests, and the alignment of those interests with Pakistan is merely incidental, which is great for Pakistan, but we are not forcing China's hands.

You were right when you said the Chinese leadership isn't stupid, and they are indeed "very strategic." You just fail to understand what the word "strategic" means apparently. I've been citing Sawhney since this whole thing began, because he's been most on-point with his analysis, pre and post-Ladakh. He has published many pieces on the roots of this conflict, and why China is doing what it's doing. He also believes that this whole thing actually began a decade ago, and will only continue to ramp up from here. China/Pak are still in the positioning stage and the board is just being set up.

p.s. There is obviously a friendly affinity between China and Pakistan, their people and especially their militaries. I know this first hand as I lived in China for a year, and people there hold the China-Pakistan friendship in high regard. We've also seen the close relations between the serving officers of both nations when they work with each other on joint-exercises. But that doesn't mean that China's entire regional strategy is determined by Pakistan's concerns. And this move in Ladakh is clearly a long-term strategic maneuver by China. This stuff doesn't happen randomly. A lot of thought and preparation went into this from the Chinese leadership (both political and military) as Sawhney has made very clear.

 

[Overbom]

A lot of thought and preparation went into this from the Chinese leadership (both political and military) as Sawhney has made very clear.

Hello, do you mind linking to him? Is he a member here, analyst on a website, YouTube etc?

Thanks in advance

 

[Maula Jatt]

No. India benefits from this because it can increase its value to the US if it can show that it can pressure China and draw its attention away from SCS and Taiwan.

So India wont try to resolve this anytime soon

I am not too sure, millitarically it'll be a disaster, if it ever turns hot

Will take away thier resources from growth, and will get isolated in Asia general and in the neighborhood specifically

What benefits can they get from US?

- Seat at the table in established power structure - probably yes
-Trade - yes or no answer, US isn't signing a FTA with em but US Market is still a very attractive market for any country, life-changing even

So while thier are some benefits but costs are high too

If I was Modi

I'd try to shut down at least one front, this 2 front is hard to handle for most nations in the world (I believe thier are talks happening between China and India atm)

that's why I am not completely sold on indian aggression, if they're purposely aggressive they'd try to concentrate on one side only wouldn't they?- and look for peace or calming down of relationship with the other side


But honestly my wish is if a 3 way agreement happens between em and somehow that state gets permanent international borders

 

[Mohsin77]

Hello, do you mind linking to him? Is he a member here, analyst on a website, YouTube etc?

Thanks in advance

He was the JANES editor for South Asia, before that he was in the Indian Army. He now runs his own publication called Force Magazine. You can see his analysis videos on youtube:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

 

[Overbom]

I am not too sure, millitarically it'll be a disaster, if it ever turns hot

Will take away thier resources from growth, and will get isolated in Asia general and in the neighborhood specifically

What benefits can they get from US?

- Seat at the table in established power structure - probably yes
-Trade - yes or no answer, US isn't signing a FTA with em but US Market is still a very attractive market for any country, life-changing even

So while thier are some benefits but costs are high too

If I was Modi

I'd try to shut down at least one front, this 2 front is hard to handle for most nations in the world (I believe thier are talks happening between China and India atm)

that's why I am not completely sold on indian aggression, if they're purposely aggressive they'd try to concentrate on one side only wouldn't they?

But honestly my wish is if a 3 way agreement happens between em and somehow that state gets permanent international borders

You are right but you obviously didnt take into account Modi's genious on this matter. India got empty US promises and on its hubris and carelessness believed the US which is why took all these actions.

It seems that they smartened up this time but not much

This is Jai Hind highjacking India's national interests

Also agree that Modi should agree on at least closing 1 front. Most probably is going to be against Pakistan.

I doubt that he wants India to lose leverage against US. It needs US assistance for its economy to grow. Shame though, thevUS have smartened up this time, no China x2 again

 

[Maula Jatt]

You are right but you obviously didnt take into account Modi's genious on this matter. India got empty US promises and on its hubris and carelessness believed the US which is why took all these actions.

It seems that they smartened up this time but not much

This is Jai Hind highjacking India's national interests

Also agree that Modi should agree on at least closing 1 front. Most probably is going to be against Pakistan.

I doubt that he wants India to lose leverage against US. It needs US assistance for its economy to grow. Shame though, thevUS have smartened up this time, no China x2 again

I wish, but nope relationship have further nose dived in recent years

I am hearing more about China and India making up than anything

I don't know where they're going with this

But if they don't actively try to close one side of the conflict (I want two but..)

Than either they were not the aggressor or really messed up with strategy

 

[Maula Jatt]

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