Ladakh Flash Point

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davidau

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I don't think the Indians are to be taken that seriously. They're bragging about hangars that can resist 1 ton bombs, but once the H-20 fleet comes online, it'll be as if the Indians had to share a border with the United States during the Cold War.

Previously, my concern with India was the expense imposed onto China for building a counter-India force, but as it turns out, the H-20s are long-ranged enough to be able to cover both Ladakh and Guam at the same time. And the suspected H-20 procurement (50) looks as though it'd have a payload capability comparable to a 3rd of the American strategic bomber fleet.

That means that Chinese gravity bombs can be dropped onto all Indian assets, and what's more, India joining the Quad implies that tactically, the Chinese are liable to "break out" by hitting the weak link in the chain. Since India is economically weak, technologically backwards, and organizationally impoverished, India seems to be the likely target if the Chinese opt to do a breakout.

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The only requirements for China, though, beyond the H-20 fleet, are that:

1- China gets a sufficient J-20 fleet to fight US Central Command assets if necessary. Oman is about 1400 km distant, meaning that F-35s can attempt to intercept (which they're not designed for) H-20s in the region.

2- China gets a sufficient nuclear deterrent to threaten off US intervention or Indian nuclear launches. BMD also comes in handy in this regard. While Lhasa is disposable, Chengdu is not, and being able to deter Indian nuclear escalation is crucial.
Do you honestly think that China think Lhasa or Chengdu or any territory including SCS islands of China disposable?
 

siegecrossbow

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Concrete towers vs wooden poles. If this is even true it really says a lot about the kind of race of infrastructure build up these indians are trying to muster.

I think that this is probably an apt comparison between military buildup of the two countries in this region. Indians are piling manpower/Jugaad solutions/token acquisitions of foreign equipment whereas China has probably spent the equivalent, in dollar terms, just to resettle Tibetan herders into poverty alleviation villages. It will be unfair to compare how much China has spent for military buildup in the region.

According to the host of a Chinese military show, a conservative estimate of the cost of SAMs fired for the latest episode involving a Chinese military academy (live firing presumably a requisite before requirement) is above 400,000,000 yuan, or 61,818,080 USD as per latest conversion ratio. I do not think that India could match this even if they had China's economy because most of their military equipment (or at least functional ones) are acquired from abroad. I'm of the opinion that frequent live-firing is needed not only to keep the troops sharp, but find potential defects and shortcomings with existing weapons systems. Go figure.Capture.PNG
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think that this is probably an apt comparison between military buildup of the two countries in this region. Indians are piling manpower/Jugaad solutions/token acquisitions of foreign equipment whereas China has probably spent the equivalent, in dollar terms, just to resettle Tibetan herders into poverty alleviation villages. It will be unfair to compare how much China has spent for military buildup in the region.

According to the host of a Chinese military show, a conservative estimate of the cost of SAMs fired for the latest episode involving a Chinese military academy (live firing presumably a requisite before requirement) is above 400,000,000 yuan, or 61,818,080 USD as per latest conversion ratio. I do not think that India could match this even if they had China's economy because most of their military equipment (or at least functional ones) are acquired from abroad. I'm of the opinion that frequent live-firing is needed not only to keep the troops sharp, but find potential defects and shortcomings with existing weapons systems. Go figure.View attachment 74636

There are some things lots of common people don't understand at all but talk a lot about. Especially with judgemental tones and pure arrogance like how overweight losers like commenting on sporting events and how "it should be". These two things are basic economics and manufacturing.

Chinese manufacturing scale and optimisation is actually only met in three other places on Earth - Japan, Germany, and South Korea. In many fields, these four manufacturing giants excel in different areas and have their own dominating niche fields and market sectors. When it comes to high tech stuff, China actually isn't lacking. Not as much and less so with every passing hour. One can pick their favourite confirmation bias poisons to soothe their egos and protect their long held beliefs from being violated but the reality is China can produce the cheap to the extraordinary, equal or at better optimals than competitors. In almost every field and certainly in the military one. Faults exist like they do with every industry in every country, but when it comes to a cost like this, it isn't a matter for China. It isn't truly $60 something million USD being used on a live fire training set, it is $60M being spent on China's MIC. That money went from the pocket of the government to the pockets of its SOEs to continue those lines and get invested into further development. The only true cost here is whatever that amount truly represent the material and time cost of producing spent ordinance. This isn't quite so if one imported those units where they are all made elsewhere by others. Indeed India cannot afford to fire off a few dozen missiles just for one training event. They do that on a smaller scale once every few years though since it is so necessary. India would be amiss if they didn't make their tests and training more materially and economically lean.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
There are some things lots of common people don't understand at all but talk a lot about. Especially with judgemental tones and pure arrogance like how overweight losers like commenting on sporting events and how "it should be". These two things are basic economics and manufacturing.

Chinese manufacturing scale and optimisation is actually only met in three other places on Earth - Japan, Germany, and South Korea. In many fields, these four manufacturing giants excel in different areas and have their own dominating niche fields and market sectors. When it comes to high tech stuff, China actually isn't lacking. Not as much and less so with every passing hour. One can pick their favourite confirmation bias poisons to soothe their egos and protect their long held beliefs from being violated but the reality is China can produce the cheap to the extraordinary, equal or at better optimals than competitors. In almost every field and certainly in the military one. Faults exist like they do with every industry in every country, but when it comes to a cost like this, it isn't a matter for China. It isn't truly $60 something million USD being used on a live fire training set, it is $60M being spent on China's MIC. That money went from the pocket of the government to the pockets of its SOEs to continue those lines and get invested into further development. The only true cost here is whatever that amount truly represent the material and time cost of producing spent ordinance. This isn't quite so if one imported those units where they are all made elsewhere by others. Indeed India cannot afford to fire off a few dozen missiles just for one training event. They do that on a smaller scale once every few years though since it is so necessary. India would be amiss if they didn't make their tests and training more materially and economically lean.

Yeah but my point is that they burned an excess of 60 million dollars just for an exercise for an academy. Imagine how much money is spent on actual military exercises in Xinjiang/Tibet.
 

erikh

New Member
I think that this is probably an apt comparison between military buildup of the two countries in this region. Indians are piling manpower/Jugaad solutions/token acquisitions of foreign equipment whereas China has probably spent the equivalent, in dollar terms, just to resettle Tibetan herders into poverty alleviation villages. It will be unfair to compare how much China has spent for military buildup in the region.

According to the host of a Chinese military show, a conservative estimate of the cost of SAMs fired for the latest episode involving a Chinese military academy (live firing presumably a requisite before requirement) is above 400,000,000 yuan, or 61,818,080 USD as per latest conversion ratio. I do not think that India could match this even if they had China's economy because most of their military equipment (or at least functional ones) are acquired from abroad. I'm of the opinion that frequent live-firing is needed not only to keep the troops sharp, but find potential defects and shortcomings with existing weapons systems. Go figure.View attachment 74636
He's saying RMB 40 million, not 400 million (correct me if I am wrong).
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
They probably burn the equivalent of IA's whole ammo stockpile every three months or so.

It is strange why the Indian military has been so insistent on foreign imports. For snapshots of situations, it makes sense but surely their planners at some point in the last 50 years would have formed coherent understanding of the need to eventually be very self reliant on ammunition and ordinance. I suspect a lot of foreign interest groups lobbying and corrupting decision makers, combined with a bit more desire for immediate gratification, and a bit less capability in domestic producers. Even with halo projects that were supposed to be trend setters like Tejas and Arjun, both have delivered acceptable platforms but overall still rather underwhelming in capability while costing more than they should and taking several times as long as they should have.

And yet the explanation is boiled down to the soundbyte "China sucks and our stuff is just super high quality which is why it took long". Sure okay.
 
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