Chinese semiconductor industry

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foofy

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Even if the machine is accurate enough to do this it will require a lot more manufacturing steps which will be slower and require more etching and more materials than using EUV.



A lot of technologies tried to replace bulk silicon in the past like SiGe. They typically end up used in niche applications only.
EUV is not easy.
 

voyager1

Captain
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That's like spending less effort to improve and compete in making rocket engines as the nuclear power age is coming around back in the 1960s when the Americans and Soviets were trying to develop (and testing) nuclear powered aircraft and rockets.

There is no real indication that silicon is anywhere near being made obsolete. Any new alternative material/principle is going to take time to make commercially available anyway.
Of course, I am not arguing that silicon based development is dead now.

However we are soon approaching the physical limits of how low we can go with silicon (approx 2nm). Now they may find some new techniques and architecure to extend the limit but it wont do much.

So at 2nm, the current silicon based chips cant advance any more by shrinking the process size

Thats its is good that they are researching other ways to get more performance gains as silicon is at its last legs and it is time to utilise nee materials. I also agree that it will take a lot of.time to replace it (~10 yrs)
 

BoraTas

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Of course, I am not arguing that silicon based development is dead now.

However we are soon approaching the physical limits of how low we can go with silicon (approx 2nm). Now they may find some new techniques and architecure to extend the limit but it wont do much.

So at 2nm, the current silicon based chips cant advance any more by shrinking the process size

Thats its is good that they are researching other ways to get more performance gains as silicon is at its last legs and it is time to utilise nee materials. I also agree that it will take a lot of.time to replace it (~10 yrs)
Node shrinkage can stop purely because of commercial reasons too. For most of the chip industry, profit margins are extremely low. Each new process used to almost half the costs for the same performance. Now it is around 10%. This why most of the chips don't use below 10 nm processes. Nobody used 5 nm except Apple and Huawei initially.
 

weig2000

Captain
Node shrinkage can stop purely because of commercial reasons too. For most of the chip industry, profit margins are extremely low. Each new process used to almost half the costs for the same performance. Now it is around 10%. This why most of the chips don't use below 10 nm processes. Nobody used 5 nm except Apple and Huawei initially.

Two years ago, I asked in another forum with some semiconductor experts the question of what potential large-scale application could drive the demand for even smaller processing nodes after smartphone.

Smartphone is what's been driving the current wave of going for 7nm and below. It has the need and the scale to justify the increasingly huge cost for a fab for advanced nodes. IoT chips probably have the potential volume, but not the complexity.

Nobody could come up with a good answer, but some suggested that the trend is more likely for innovation in architecture, not smaller nodes as it hits the physical limits.
 

BoraTas

Captain
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Two years ago, I asked in another forum with some semiconductor experts the question of what potential large-scale application could drive the demand for even smaller processing nodes after smartphone.

Smartphone is what's been driving the current wave of going for 7nm and below. It has the need and the scale to justify the increasingly huge cost for a fab for advanced nodes. IoT chips probably have the potential volume, but not the complexity.

Nobody could come up with a good answer, but some suggested that the trend is more likely for innovation in architecture, not smaller nodes as it hits the physical limits.
True. Intel recently got a 20%+ increase in performance by improving their architecture. This more than the performance difference between the first TSMC 7 nm and the recent 5 nm.
 

AndrewS

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Two years ago, I asked in another forum with some semiconductor experts the question of what potential large-scale application could drive the demand for even smaller processing nodes after smartphone.

Smartphone is what's been driving the current wave of going for 7nm and below. It has the need and the scale to justify the increasingly huge cost for a fab for advanced nodes. IoT chips probably have the potential volume, but not the complexity.

Nobody could come up with a good answer, but some suggested that the trend is more likely for innovation in architecture, not smaller nodes as it hits the physical limits.

5nm is still new, so it will likely get cheaper as time goes on.
So 5nm chips will be somewhat cheaper than their 7nm equivalents.
Plus 5nm will save a little on space and also has some improvement in performance and power consumption.
See below.

However chip volumes have to be large given the added development cost. See below



Despite the cost, the 5nm node is a promising one. At the same power consumption as a 7nm chip, a 5nm one will run 15% faster. At the same performance level, a 5nm chip will consume 30% less power than a 7nm one. And the 5nm node is reported to have better yield rates, too.

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Oldschool

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China main strategic semiconductor opportunity lies at electric vehicle sector not cellphone, PC, AI or Server. It's estimated by 2025 , there will annual electric car ouput of 5 million in China market alone and each electric car take about 400 to 500 chips. It will go up more in the future. Maybe needs 10,000 chip in each electric vehicle further in future.

So do the math, by 2025, 5million cars *500=2.5billion chip each year just for electric car in China market.

And 28nm process is sufficient for 90% of 2.5billion chips annually.

That's expansion of 28nm capacity is greatly needed. Beijing and Shenzhen currently expands at this node. More will come online to meet the great demand for electric vehicle.
 

broadsword

Brigadier
China main strategic semiconductor opportunity lies at electric vehicle sector not cellphone, PC, AI or Server. It's estimated by 2025 , there will annual electric car ouput of 5 million in China market alone and each electric car take about 400 to 500 chips. It will go up more in the future. Maybe needs 10,000 chip in each electric vehicle further in future.

So do the math, by 2025, 5million cars *500=2.5billion chip each year just for electric car in China market.

And 28nm process is sufficient for 90% of 2.5billion chips annually.

That's expansion of 28nm capacity is greatly needed. Beijing and Shenzhen currently expands at this node. More will come online to meet the great demand for electric vehicle.

I would think "cellphone, PC, AI or Server" are as important as electric cars.
 
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