Chinese semiconductor industry


FriedRiceNSpice

Senior Member
As much as AI applications and servers do not need blazingly fast chips and may be supplied with China's own, without them China will lose market share to foreign brands as has happened to Huawei. Without them, she runs the risk of future sanctions from an insecure America. Then the technology can be applied elsewhere than smartphones. So let's not get smug and hope all should be well without top of the line chips.
Chips and AI are two separate issues. Stating that AI does not need cutting edge chips does not imply that China does not need to be able domestically produce cutting edge chips. I was simply stating that cutting edge chips are not needed to be competitive in AI, as long as the chips used can be fully sourced domestically. How can these companies be sanctioned in the same way as Huawei if they are fully using domestic technology? Of course, the US can choose to sanction them in other ways, but that would be the case regardless of how cutting edge the chips used were. Whether or not Chinese companies can outcompete US companies for market share in offering AI services would not even partially be dependent on how cutting edge the chips used are.
 

t2contra

Major
Chips and AI are two separate issues. Stating that AI does not need cutting edge chips does not imply that China does not need to be able domestically produce cutting edge chips. I was simply stating that cutting edge chips are not needed to be competitive in AI, as long as the chips used can be fully sourced domestically. How can these companies be sanctioned in the same way as Huawei if they are fully using domestic technology? Of course, the US can choose to sanction them in other ways, but that would be the case regardless of how cutting edge the chips used were. Whether or not Chinese companies can outcompete US companies for market share in offering AI services would not even partially be dependent on how cutting edge the chips used are.

I agree with that bold part. My point was China main strategic semiconductor opportunity lies at electric vehicle sector and cellphone, PC, AI or Server. Because that market size and significance of the latter are not smaller or strategically less important. Living without EVs is not as crippling as without cellphones, pcs, AI or servers.
 

voyager1

Junior Member
Registered Member
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United States and Japan looking to cooperate in the semiconductor industry and planning to establish common ground during Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's April 16 visit to the US.

At the same time, the United States has also invited South Korea to join a ‘Semiconductor Alliance’ in a bid to prevent China developing a semiconductor industry.
But Germany and Japan have also recently begun talks on a similar alliance to prevent Chinese acquisition of vital chip making equipment.

And Nikkei Asia has reported that Japan and Germany’s foreign and defence ministers will meet in mid-April to discuss joint efforts toward ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific, in response to China's growing presence in the region.
So Japan coming in, Germany (EU) is also jumping in on the action, and now S.Korea is also invited to do the same.

Here is my opinion of what will happen:

Press 'F' for the Chinese semiconductor industry from 2021 to 2025

Then Press 'F' again for the world's semiconductors industry from 2025+ to infinity
 

gelgoog

Captain
Registered Member
Japan should be getting ready to lose its semiconductor industry. Not that they had much of it left after South Korea ate their lunch on memory. Sales of machines and equipment together with materials to China could have basically saved the Japanese tools industry. It is also telling that the Japanese chip manufacturers did not invest into China like the South Koreans or even Taiwan (UMC, TSMC) did.

The US has been robbing the Japanese chip industry blind. Just look at what happened to Toshiba. The Taiwanese memory manufacturers also suffered from this. Micron basically bought Taiwanese memory assets for a song. That is how they put Chinese company Fujihan Jinhua out of the market. They claimed it infringed on Micron patents. Well. Fujihan Jinhua hired the Taiwanese engineers who worked on Taiwan memory products which were sold for a song and fired when Micron (US) acquired those companies. Mind you, Taiwan would not allow China to buy those companies even if they paid more, but it is fine if it is Uncle Sam doing it. Micron claims Fujihan Jinhua thus infringed on "their IP" and uses this as an excuse to kill this company with sanctions.

I hope the Chinese government will help support Fujihan Jinhua with Chinese equipment.
 
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voyager1

Junior Member
Registered Member
Japan should be getting ready to lose its semiconductor industry. Not that they had much of it left after South Korea ate their lunch on memory. Sales of machines and equipment together with materials to China could have basically saved the Japanese tools industry. It is also telling that the Japanese chip manufacturers did not invest into China like the South Koreans or even Taiwan (UMC, TSMC) did.

The US has been robbing the Japanese chip industry blind. Just look at what happened to Toshiba. The Taiwanese memory manufacturers also suffered from this. Micron basically bought Taiwanese memory assets for a song. That is how they put Chinese company Fujihan Jinhua out of the market. They claimed it infringed on Micron patents. Well. Fujihan Jinhua hired the Taiwanese engineers who worked on Taiwan memory products which were sold for a song and fired when Micron (US) acquired those companies. Mind you, Taiwan would not allow China to buy those companies even if they paid more, but it is fine if it is Uncle Sam doing it. Micron claims Fujihan Jinhua thus infringed on "their IP" and uses this as an excuse to kill this company with sanctions.

I hope the Chinese government will help support Fujihan Jinhua with Chinese equipment.
Yep. The Chinese gov is WAY too passive on semiconductor shenanigans from the semiconductors cartel Japan/Taiwan.

As you saw from the article I posted, Japan is ready to block technologies on China. So how is China reacting?

Has it placed requirements for domestic manufacturing if Japan wants to sell semiconductors on China?

Has it moved to warn domestic companies using Japanese IC IP?

From what I know, Chinese companies are spending money like crazy to buy Japanese IC IP owned products. What are all these companies going to do when they get blocked from getting the equipment, that they paid for, from Japan.

Same applies for Taiwan, same for Germany (EU), same for the US.

And same for ASML, it is crazy to me that China allows ASML to steal domestic market share by selling old IC equipment while withholding advanced IC equipment sales.

Time for China to require ALL foreign semiconductors companies to present a roadmap to the authorities about when they are planning to phase out US/JAPAN/EU components from their products. If they fail to do so then BAN THEM ALL or raise tariffs dramatically (100%+)

Time for China to grow some balls and start punching back if the US, Japan and the EU join hands to restrict China's domestic semiconductors industry development
 
Yep. The Chinese gov is WAY too passive on semiconductor shenanigans from the semiconductors cartel Japan/Taiwan.

As you saw from the article I posted, Japan is ready to block technologies on China. So how is China reacting?

Has it placed requirements for domestic manufacturing if Japan wants to sell semiconductors on China?

Has it moved to warn domestic companies using Japanese IC IP?

From what I know, Chinese companies are spending money like crazy to buy Japanese IC IP owned products. What are all these companies going to do when they get blocked from getting the equipment, that they paid for, from Japan.

Same applies for Taiwan, same for Germany (EU), same for the US.

And same for ASML, it is crazy to me that China allows ASML to steal domestic market share by selling old IC equipment while withholding advanced IC equipment sales.

Time for China to require ALL foreign semiconductors companies to present a roadmap to the authorities about when they are planning to phase out US/JAPAN/EU components from their products. If they fail to do so then BAN THEM ALL or raise tariffs dramatically (100%+)
Lots of the things being done are behind the scenes and the money paid may not be for deals as they appear on the surface. By this time, all Chinese companies are more than aware of the dangers that you speak of and the conversations that the CCP has with them are not public. The strategy they seem to be taking is to learn as much from these sources as they can before any full alliance is formed, if it will ever be, and concurrently develop China's domestic lithography industry through innovation and adaptation of what they have learned. After all, China realizes it's dealing with (some) countries being held hostage by the US instead of an organic alliance. This is the smartest way to do things.
Time for China to grow some balls and start punching back if the US, Japan and the EU join hands to restrict China's domestic semiconductors industry development
China's intelligence in dealing with these hostilities is what has gotten China where it is today. Lashing out and cursing or preemptively banning equipment from America's hostage nations does China no good but it serves to unite them under America's plan. Some of them may feel that since China is about to dominate the IC scene, they can have some of that pie by being the entity that came to China's help when it needed but that will become a full commitment behind America if China attacks them first. This is a tech race, not a fight; so your boxing strategy is moot. Don't confuse aggressive bravado will "balls" as many a country have failed doing things that way. China has always had the "balls" to confront the US, but it does so intelligently. Those who don't see that should grow a brain rather than ask China to grow anything.
 

voyager1

Junior Member
Registered Member
Lots of the things being done are behind the scenes and the money paid may not be for deals as they appear on the surface. By this time, all Chinese companies are more than aware of the dangers that you speak of and the conversations that the CCP has with them are not public. The strategy they seem to be taking is to learn as much from these sources as they can before any full alliance is formed, if it will ever be, and concurrently develop China's domestic lithography industry through innovation and adaptation of what they have learned. After all, China realizes it's dealing with (some) countries being held hostage by the US instead of an organic alliance. This is the smartest way to do things.

China's intelligence in dealing with these hostilities is what has gotten China where it is today. Lashing out and cursing or preemptively banning equipment from America's hostage nations does China no good but it serves to unite them under America's plan. Some of them may feel that since China is about to dominate the IC scene, they can have some of that pie by being the entity that came to China's help when it needed but that will become a full commitment behind America if China attacks them first. This is a tech race, not a fight; so your boxing strategy is moot. Don't confuse aggressive bravado will "balls" as many a country have failed doing things that way. China has always had the "balls" to confront the US, but it does so intelligently. Those who don't see that should grow a brain rather than ask China to grow anything.
I think it is possible for China to get S.Korea on its side. If it manages to do so then that would be a massive diplomatic coup for China.

S.Korea has already faced the treacherous Japanese IC sanctions so they might be more inclined to cooperate with China on this. Unless of course, the West massively pressure S.Korea, which in this case it would be forced to join this western "Semiconductors Alliance"

And yes I know, China is on a dramatic upwards trajectory right now. After the tech acceleration from the Trump tech sanctions, then covid hit and now there is a double acceleration with digitalization and 5G.

So I fully expect that in 5 years (earliest) the foreign IC companies will be in huge trouble
 

FriedRiceNSpice

Senior Member
I agree with that bold part. My point was China main strategic semiconductor opportunity lies at electric vehicle sector and cellphone, PC, AI or Server. Because that market size and significance of the latter are not smaller or strategically less important. Living without EVs is not as crippling as without cellphones, pcs, AI or servers.
Catching up in cutting edge chips is definitely a high priority. Without them, it is likely China will miss opportunities for future innovations and applications. Having them not only allows China to stay competitive in current technologies such as cell phones, but positions China to capitalize on future innovations and technological trends.
 

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