Ladakh Flash Point

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steel21

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Soldiers are not expendable in China, unlike in India. The Chinese populace can rally very quickly to a patriotic cause. We have observed that during China's battle against Covid-19 in Wuhan last year. India better not make itself the rallying cause for the Chinese people.


Correct assessment. India does not understand the concept of "face-saving" negotiations. Next time, just use the only language that India understand: Force. For the next round of negotiations, be sure to remind the Indian side, that China is prepared to obliterate all Indian bases and army formations in Ladakh and South Tibet if India tries anything.


I would argue that it doesn't really matter. When Pakistan aired Abhinandan's beaten-up face on national TV with him saying: "The tea was excellent!". India didn't dare launch more cross-border airstrikes. Instead India accepted Pakistan's offer to return Abhinandan. After he was returned, India still didn't launch more air-raids. Because India was still in shock and disbelief that the PAF can actually hurt them. India was also shocked by the PLA's fighting capability after Galwan. So India will still concede, one way or another. Instead, China gave India 8-months to obfuscate the truth with mountains of BS. And gave India more time to take the negotiations for a ride.


That is an accurate assessment. Looks like next time, China is not gonna allow another chance for India to murder its PLA soldiers in cold blood. Next time, there won't just be replies with riot shields and rods. Next time, it should be uglier for India.
I think at the strategic level, CCP is still hoping to work with India.

If you take the long term outlook, it is almost an absolute certainty that China will be the long pole in the tent in terms of GDP and technological output and growth after 2030.

US and EU (along with UK) is in decline, at differing speeds, but there is no access capacity to pull along developing countries.

And the LARGEST developing country is..... India.

India has much potential but it really need to get its shit together.
BTW, looks like he is wearing a Vuitton Tie.

China has much to offer India, but India needs to become a secular society that values science and technology more than spiritualism. It is a hard transition, as in some ways, it has to become less Indian.

I think China has more to offer India and would be on terms much better than the West. But India need to be less thrifty and accept sacrifices up front as the Chinese did in the 80's and 90's.

India suffer from the worst populist democracy where nothing gets done and a uniquely India short sightedness on their strategic planning and posture, going after every nickel and dime when every minute means millions. Pile on top of that an epic level of delusion and crackhead level of optimism, at this rate it is edging ever closer to GAME OVER with no reset button, real quick.

However, I really don't see the Indian elites making that epiphany until the decline of Western liberal order is complete, in about 10-15 years time. Unfortunately, by then automation and AI would have absorbed any low skill labor cost advantage India might momentarily enjoy. When that happens, India would have to have to wait another technological revolution at another chance to reach middle income, and that might be at least 50 to 100 years away, and the barrier to entry will be vastly higher than it is today. Once general intelligence AI is matured in 30+ years, then the value of human input would be marginal at best.

There will be NO population dividend, it will be a huge implosion.

Their ticket out of shithole-ville is already fast expiring. They are literally holding 1/2 a ticket as it is. In reality, they have a less than 10% chance of making the last train on the globalization low skilled labor express.

It's rather tragic to see 1.4+ billion people sunk to irrecoverable poverty for at least the next century.

Hate them or love them, I don't think CCP want to see a basketcase of fuckups of epic proportions next door, hence the restraint, hoping that there is still some real strategist in India.

By the recent awards by IA, the Chinese should abandon all hope and extend the great wall against the inevitable flood of refugees.
 
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Sardaukar20

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There appears to be a cultural of rewarding failures within the IA and it seems to pervade all three branches. You’ve got Abhinandan being awarded high honors for being shot down and held captive and the Su-30 pilots received decorations for dodging AIM-120s!

https://www.reddit.com/r/LessCredibleDefence/comments/9uwqzk
I recall this bit of news causing quite a bit of stir when it was first released in 2011. I was skeptical when I first saw this but I am skeptical no longer. Seems like basic competency is an issue here.
The USN officer gave the IN 3/10 score. He gave the INS Delhi a higher chance of becoming a coral reef than actually hitting targets. Even in a conflict against Pakistan. And India is boasting of using the Indian Navy to blockade China out of the Malacca Straits. Against the PLAN, an upcoming rival to the USN. LOL! You can't make this sh*t up.
 
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Sardaukar20

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Let’s not underestimate the enemy, This AMA was in 2011, so 9-10 years ago... the Indian Navy might be 4/10 now
Indian Navy taking advice.jpg
Based on the USN officer answer above. I doubt that the Indian Navy boys would have improved by much (if any). Yeah the Indian Navy had added newer and much better ships since 2011. So has the PLAN, but on a much larger scale in terms of tonnage and capability.

Remember, that back in 2011, India was still run by Manmohan Singh. That India, although very flawed, is still nothing like the clown-show that we are seeing right now. Judging by India and its military culture in 2020-2021. Could we really say that their military culture would have improved since 2011? It looks more like a regression is actually going on, despite the addition of newer toys. So 3/10 could have dropped to 2/10 even with the new toys added.

But you're still right. Never underestimate the enemy. Better to treat them with sufficient respect and overperform, than to underestimate them, and get a nasty surprise. But China must also not underestimate the enemy's stupidity. A PLA negotiation party was ambushed at Galwan. China cannot rule out more stupid moves by India. That should also include their stupid threat to blockade the Malacca Straits.
 
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