Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

[Tam]

The vast majority of China's trade surplus is recycled back into US treasury bonds (e.g. US Debt purchases). That's why China owns $1.3 Trillion in US debt, because it's the only nation that even has that sizeable trade surplus of US dollars to re-invest into US stocks and debt, other than Japan.

With US spending $3 Trillion plus on stimulus bailouts on COVID, do you realistically think EU, Japan, Mexico, Vietnam, Ireland, Italy, Korea, India, Thailand, ALL Combined can replace Chinese debt purchases? Nope.

So de-coupling is not possible. That's just rhetoric from news sensationalists baiting for clicks from bored people.

Not this year, with US Treasury Bonds being lowered, which means China not buying US Treasury Bonds, as bonds mature, and selling some of what they have. China's holdings are down to about $1 trillion, which puts Japan now ahead, though Japan is also slightly shrinking their holdings. China + Hong Kong combined however, amounts to nearly $1.5 trillion.

Instead, China puts its excess dollars buying large amounts of oil, ore and grain --- including oil and grain from the US --- in a move that appears like large scale stockpiling, in case of a war or their trade routes getting cut off. In fact, around spring this year, Chinese ports were overloaded with tankers full of oil, and the ships have to stay in huge fleets outside of the harbor, as ships are unloaded one by one.

 

[caudaceus]

Not this year, with US Treasury Bonds being lowered, which means China not buying US Treasury Bonds, as bonds mature, and selling some of what they have. China's holdings are down to about $1 trillion, which puts Japan now ahead, though Japan is also slightly shrinking their holdings. China + Hong Kong combined however, amounts to nearly $1.5 trillion.

Instead, China puts its excess dollars buying large amounts of oil, ore and grain --- including oil and grain from the US --- in a move that appears like large scale stockpiling, in case of a war or their trade routes getting cut off. In fact, around spring this year, Chinese ports were overloaded with tankers full of oil, and the ships have to stay in huge fleets outside of the harbor, as ships are unloaded one by one.

Or China believe that U.S. treasury bond rate is really bad to the point that oil and agricultural products are more valuable than the bond. Also there is still phase 1 trade deal.

 

[ansy1968]

Not this year, with US Treasury Bonds being lowered, which means China not buying US Treasury Bonds, as bonds mature, and selling some of what they have. China's holdings are down to about $1 trillion, which puts Japan now ahead, though Japan is also slightly shrinking their holdings. China + Hong Kong combined however, amounts to nearly $1.5 trillion.

Instead, China puts its excess dollars buying large amounts of oil, ore and grain --- including oil and grain from the US --- in a move that appears like large scale stockpiling, in case of a war or their trade routes getting cut off. In fact, around spring this year, Chinese ports were overloaded with tankers full of oil, and the ships have to stay in huge fleets outside of the harbor, as ships are unloaded one by one.

Hi Tam

Instead, China puts its excess dollars buying large amounts of oil, ore and grain --- including oil and grain from the US --- in a move that appears like large scale stockpiling, in case of a war or their trade routes getting cut off.

OR They are being sold at a bargain price due to low demand.

 

[emblem21]

So one of Biden's strategies to revive the U.S economy is to introduce a "new deal" style program amounting around 700B

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So what are the possible challenges for these initiatives?
At least these are what I am thinking.
1. Deficit Hawks coming back for 2022
2. Libertarians hate "market distortion"
3. Congress fighting programs for their constituencies
4. Progressive attacking the industries for not having proper union/benefit/woke
5. Hyperfocus on anecdotal mistakes/inefficiencies instead of the big picture by media/think tank/Republican

I get the feeling that the republican party is one of the greatest weaknesses that the USA has right now since if not for them, the USA many not have to deal with so many problems and also they probably would have been able to contain China while maintaining there world image. Now however, with all the problems the USA has right now, these things are going to be next to impossible to fix, not to mention that the republican party are going to do everything they can to sabotage the Democrats. The only real thing that can help is the complete and utter removal of the republicans from any seat of office and this is something that can never be done

 

[caudaceus]

I get the feeling that the republican party is one of the greatest weaknesses that the USA has right now since if not for them, the USA many not have to deal with so many problems and also they probably would have been able to contain China while maintaining there world image. Now however, with all the problems the USA has right now, these things are going to be next to impossible to fix, not to mention that the republican party are going to do everything they can to sabotage the Democrats. The only real thing that can help is the complete and utter removal of the republicans from any seat of office and this is something that can never be done

Sometime I'm embarrassed that I was geared towards "Patrician Republicans" during my youth time.

 

[emblem21]

Sometime I'm embarrassed that I was geared towards "Patrician Republicans" during my youth time.

Don't worry, they are very good at marketing, thus they can trick people quite easily. I was like that when I was younger, but nowadays with how crazy they are, the fact that anyone supports them right now seems to suggest a nation wide gas lighting thing is going on

 

[solarz]

Don't worry, they are very good at marketing, thus they can trick people quite easily. I was like that when I was younger, but nowadays with how crazy they are, the fact that anyone supports them right now seems to suggest a nation wide gas lighting thing is going on

Seriously, it boggles my mind how Americans can still support Trump!

 

[emblem21]

Seriously, it boggles my mind how Americans can still support Trump!

The only conclusion from this. As a whole, they a stupid for a short answer. For a slightly longer answer, there education system has shifted away from critical thinking and more into towing the party line, hence they are taught to be stupid as a whole. There are smart people but as a whole on the other hand, the major dwarfs the former by an extreme margin

 

[caudaceus]

Probably not very related but this is a good thread

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1316098768303841280

 

[Skywatcher]

It's inevitable that Biden will rollback some of the CEL listing because Individual #1 has made it so large.