News on China's scientific and technological development.

horse

Major
Registered Member
nope just saying SMIC use alot US equipment, so they are worried. and fab is probably their only business.
1. What do you think SMIC management will do?

2. What do you think are SMIC management plans for the next couple of years, where they assume their access to US technologies will be banned?
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
1. What do you think SMIC management will do?

2. What do you think are SMIC management plans for the next couple of years, where they assume their access to US technologies will be banned?
hi horse,

See WTAN opinion posted on this thread,


ansy1968 said:
Hi WTAN,

will this affect SMIC operation? What about technical personnel, will SMIC able to hire local technician to able to operated this foreign equipment if ASML and others leaves?
I think SMIC should be able to operate the FABS normally as they have technicians that have already been trained by ASML and other companies. They will continue to produce Chips till the equipment breaks down or runs out of parts.

But remember that the new SMEE 28nm Litho is ready by the end of the year and this will take over from the ASML equipment. The equipment from Naura ,North Industries and CETC are all fairly advanced as well and can be used as replacements for the equipment from LAM, KLA Tencor etc.


ansy1968 said:
Hi WTAN,

If the sanction on SMIC do happen, what will their course of action will be, suing is out of the question? what about their operations? can they replace their critical equipment with domestic one, pieces by pieces so that it wont impede operation? or all at once, sorry for the stupid question, from what I learned from KYli, localizer and you, is that its a complex process, one missing pieces will derail the whole process.
Actually, even if Trump does not go ahead to sanction SMIC, the damage has already been done. Chinese FABs will find it too risky to buy American equipment. The next President might just finish what Trump did not do. This is bad news for all American equipment manufacturers as well as Japanese and European.

I have done some analysis and i conclude that SMIC will not be affected much at all by this American sanctions. Remember that the SMIC 14nm Chip production business only makes up a small amount of revenue for SMIC. If i can recall only 2-5% of SMIC total revenue. Can someone please find this article?
Most of SMIC revenue comes from sales of Chips 22nm/28nm and above.
Worse case scenario the 14nm FAB will be shut down.
The other FABs can switch over to using the SMEE 45nm Immersion Lithograph and also the new 28nm Immersion Lithograph. As i have said, China already has produced a localised 28nm production line which can be used to replace the foreign equipment. Reconditioned equipment can also be used with spares provided by local companies.
The sanctions will only affect SMICs 14nm and future 7nm Chip plans. But plans are underway to address the production of 14nm and 7nm using the new 28nm Immersion Lithograph.
SMIC will survive this and come out stronger.
Also if SMIC is sanctioned, it can continue to produce 14nm Chips for Huawei 5g Base Stations and Mid Range Mobile Phones.
 

s002wjh

Junior Member
1. What do you think SMIC management will do?

2. What do you think are SMIC management plans for the next couple of years, where they assume their access to US technologies will be banned?
stockpile equipment/permanent software license for one, more R&D, partnership with other domestic companies, diversify income revenue. not sure what else they can do, thats problem rely too much on US equipment when Trump can jeopardize its operation on a whimp(thats if he is elected), even Japan/SK is an issue if Trump decide to put pressure on them, like he did with Huawei - TSMC/Samsung relation. Short term painful, long term as long as china domestic industry can come up with decent hardware/software, then they wont be in the same situation again.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
Registered Member
stockpile equipment/permanent software license for one, more R&D, partnership with other domestic companies, diversify income revenue. not sure what else they can do, thats problem rely too much on US equipment when Trump can jeopardize its operation on a whimp(thats if he is elected), even Japan/SK is an issue if Trump decide to put pressure on them, like he did with Huawei - TSMC/Samsung relation. Short term painful, long term as long as china domestic industry can come up with decent hardware/software, then they wont be in the same situation again.

Even if China managed to achieve independence in semiconductor manufacturing, US will at some point lift the entity list, then demand China to "abide by free market rule "and import US semicondictors materials/equipment.

History has been repeating itself for decades.

US merely switches between Free Market Card(when it want you to buy despite you not having the need) or National Security Threat(Deny access to throttle your progress when you get competitive) as and when they like, having both say at either end.
 

s002wjh

Junior Member
Even if China managed to achieve independence in semiconductor manufacturing, US will at some point lift the entity list, then demand China to "abide by free market rule "and import US semicondictors materials/equipment.
if china have its own comparable equipment/eda, then there is no need to do what other demands. Fool me once shame on you, Fool me twice shame on me.
 

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Maybe next time we get a super duper fab or equipment maker we should keep our mouths shut? If SMIC told the world they were only capable of producing 1000nm chips then they wouldn't be o n the radar for sanctions.
 

free_6ix9ine

Junior Member
Registered Member
In fact keep the names of chip companies names completely secret. So when Huawei gets its chips back, it will be impossible to sanction the company making those chips because the American chip policia doesn't even know who or what is making the chips for Huawei.
 

horse

Major
Registered Member
hi horse,

See WTAN opinion posted on this thread,
Thanks ansy1968 for posting what WTAN posted before, and I fully agree with him.

The most important about a fab, we must all remember, is that it is a factory. What is the important point about a factory is production.

SMIC production already at 14nm. To me, that is end of story. There is nothing anyone can do to stop production.

Where the story gets really interesting, is that with the capital given to SMIC, they will buy Chinese only machines, installed in the same factory as the American machines, to produce this 14nm and sell to Huawei.

Then SMIC will try to move to lower nodes. I think we should wait 1-3 years to see what happens. In the meantime, 14nm widgets from that factory that will be verified by gong an not as using American machines will be in mass production.
 
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