China isn’t pushing for conflict, basically every move it has made has been to de-escalate while firmly pushing back against Indian advances.
If China wanted to escalate the situation, it could have done so many simple, almost standard things to put massive pressure on Modi to ‘respond’. Beijing no doubt have video footage of the clash, and could easily release it to humiliate the Indian army; it could push India much hard diplomatically; and it could be actively advancing on the boarder. Hell, even just releasing the PLA casualty figures would probably be enough to have Indian ultranationalists foaming at the mouth.
What China wants is a peaceful boarder, and while Beijing might not have went into this crisis with a view of giving India a bloody nose, we must remember that plans are never fixed, but rather always changing based on facts on the ground.
China would have noted the muted response of the rest of the Quad, and America in particular, and taken that into consideration.
America is fully occupied with its COVID19 disaster, and the rest of the world is more dependent on Chinese supplies than ever before as they also struggle to contain their own outbreaks. As such, it would be fair to conclude that the west’s appetite for sticking its oar into China’s business is at an all time low.
China has already effectively proven that with its HK national security bill. What, in normal times, would have been a major issue that could have led to massive pressure from western governments only got the bare minimum lip service needed to keep western domestic pressure groups in check.
If China wanted to give India a spanking, now is the perfect opportunity.
However, we must also remember that India is very low on Beijing’s priority list.
Yes, India is a unredeemable hostile power that China will need to deal with eventually, but given past and current Indian performance, one can easily see why China sees no hurry to press the issue.
Unlike China vs the US, where China is narrowing the lead the US has on it with every passing day, the gap between India and China only grows wider with time. As such, India is a problem that China can keep on the back burner to revisit in the future.
I personally would be much more worried about Taiwan.
Beijing has seen first hand what foreign hostile powers have managed in HK, so I think there is now a new sense of urgency in that if the same hostile powers are allowed to continue poisoning generations of Taiwan’s youth against China, peaceful reunification would not only be completely off the table forever, even military options would become increasingly unpalatable with a resolutely hostile population.
I think strategists and leaders in Beijing are having long and hard looks at China’s options right now, and the last thing they want is to have some of those options become untenable because of some meaningless pissing contest with India on the boarder.
I think China’s strategy is to exert maximum pressure on India now to get them to back down as soon as possible, and to wait for the moment of maximum leverage to make a decision on Taiwan.
Nothing is set in stone, and a lot will still depend on outside factors. But, if the COVID19 outbreak and internal racial tensions continue to deteriorate in the US, and if China ‘wins’ the COVID19 vaccine race, I think enough chips would fall in place to make a move on Taiwan viable.
If China has the world’s first and only viable COVID19 vaccine in mass production, with deliveries to the US and EU promised on the coming weeks; and suddenly an ‘unexpected incident’ sparks a shooting war across the straits that escalated with unprecedented rapidity, would the EU and the US give up on their covid19 vaccine deliveries for Taiwan? Especially as they are struggling to contain a second or even third wave, as seem all but inevitable given the rush to lift the lockdown now, while the outbreak is still far from contained?
As I said, I think China is keen to cool the boarder clash with India as soon as possible, as I have a feeling things might start getting very heated in the straits in the coming months.
