Ladakh Flash Point

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
So it looks like India has implemented a blanket 100% inspection policy on imports from China, which is leading to delays and increased costs.

This sounds like an emotional decision to me, because it will hurt the Indian economy more than it will hurt the Chinese economy.

The smart thing to do would be to target specific categories of Chinese imports.
It makes no sense to hold up medical supplies for example, but India is doing that.

And in terms of economic growth this year, the IMF estimate is China growing at 1%, whilst India is expected to shrink by -4.5%
 

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
Unless the United States decides to let India use all its satellites, this is all but impossible

At this point in time, with they way they have dealt with the coronavirus and the current locust swarm messing things up and the economic damage taken, trying to take advantage of the situation by lying about there satellites superiority (I mean, come on do they have the R & D and patents to manage this) isn't going to improve the situation
 
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discspinner

Junior Member
Registered Member
If you cannot launch a successful attack and can fend off an attack yourself, what you can do is to spur an enemy attack yourself.

That seems to be the end-game when it comes to Ladakh; provoke the Indians enough, get the Indians to launch an attack, then interrupt their attack with superior firepower and savage Indian attacking forces.

I think the senior Indian leadership understands that there is no military option. On the other hand, China does not claim past the LAC. So most likely, we are going to be at a new status quo. Whether that was worth it from China's point of view, who knows. I'm sure there are additional considerations at play here other than the pure border claim with India.
 

Figaro

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is a very sad story back from 2017 I thought still carries a lot of relevance to today. A Chinese soldier accidentally wandered into Indian territory and ended up being trapped there in a 50+ year nightmare. Imagine if the 60 Indian soldiers captured by the Chinese on June 15 were only released back to India in the 2070s? Thanks to the BBC, now we know this tragic story. Pathetic for a country that always claims the moral high ground and plays the victim in this dispute.
The Chinese man trapped in India for half a century
  • 31 January 2017
In 1963 a Chinese army surveyor crossed into India and was captured, weeks after a war between the countries. Wang Qi has been unable to leave India ever since - and longs to see his family in China. BBC Hindi's Vineet Khare met him.

Tirodi village is a nearly five-hour drive from the nearest airport in Nagpur in central India.

I am here to meet Wang Qi, a Chinese army surveyor who entered India in 1963 but could never go back. For over five decades, he has been longing to see his family back home.

Sporting cropped white hair, black trainers and a body warmer, Mr Wang, who is now in his eighties, hugs me when we meet. We are about to try and make video contact with his family more than 3,000km (1,864 miles) away in China.

Together we go to the government office, which is the only centre equipped with internet for miles around.

He watches in anticipation as I dial and then his eyes light up as the image of his elder brother Wang Zhiyuan, 82, appears on the screen, seated on a sofa in Xianyang, a city in China's Shaanxi province.

The two brothers are seeing each other after more than 50 years. The conversation in Mandarin lasts 17 minutes.

"I couldn't recognise him. He looked so old. He said he was alive just for me," Wang Qi, also known by his Indian name Raj Bahadur, tells me in strongly accented Hindi as his three Indian-born children gather around to comfort him.

Mr Wang's story is a long and sad one.

Born to a farmer family in Shaanxi with four brothers and two sisters, he studied surveying and joined China's People's Liberation Army in 1960.

Mr Wang says he was "tasked with building roads for the Chinese army" and was captured when he "strayed erroneously" inside India's territory in January 1963.

"I had gone out of my camp for a stroll but lost my way. I was tired and hungry. I saw a Red Cross vehicle and asked them to help me. They handed me over to the Indian army," he said.

Indian officials said Mr Wang "intruded into India" and gave "false background and the circumstances" about his whereabouts to the authorities.


He spent the next seven years in a number of different jails before a court ordered his release in 1969.

Police took him to Tirodi, a far-flung village in the central state of Madhya Pradesh. He has not been allowed to leave the country ever since.

It's still not clear whether Mr Wang is a prisoner of war. But he has been denied official Indian documents or citizenship and also been denied permission to travel back. His family says Mr Wang needs a document to exit India.

Senior local official Bharat Yadav agrees that there have been "deficiencies" and a "lack of interest" in the case.

"There are no suspicions about his actions. If he wants to go back, we will try and help him," he said.

An official at the Chinese embassy, which helped him secure a passport in 2013, acknowledged he was aware of the issue. A response to questions sent to India's federal home ministry is still awaited.

It has been a long, excruciating wait for Mr Wang.

Be it language, food or a vastly different society, Mr Wang has had to adapt every step of the way.

"I began by working in a flour mill. But I cried in the night as I longed for my family. I missed my mother," he said.

"I wondered what I had got into."

Mr Wang married a local girl, Sushila, under "pressure from friends" in 1975.

"I was livid with my parents for marrying me off to an outsider. I had trouble understanding his language. I tolerated him for a few months. Then I got used to him," she says with a smile.

Mr Wang tried his hand at business but his undefined legal status meant visits by local police.

"I remember Mr Wang being beaten by the police for not bribing them. He was an honest man," says BB Singh, his neighbour for many years.

"He always talked about his home in China. His family lived in utter poverty. He would cycle for miles with no break," another former neighbour Jayanti Lal Waghela says.

Mr Wang wrote letters home but received his first reply only in the 1980s. Family pictures were exchanged.

He spoke to his mother for the first time in more than 40 years on the phone in 2002.

"She said she wanted to see me as her last days were near. I said I was trying to return. I wrote letters to everyone who mattered to provide me with exit documents but nothing moved."

She died in 2006.

Mr Wang's nephew met him when he came to India as a tourist in 2009.

It was he who helped him to get the necessary documents for his passport.

It is still not clear whether Wang Qi will be able to go to China - and if he did, would he want to return to India?

"My family is here. Where would I go?" he says, playing with his granddaughter in his lap.

Sushila is worried though. "I hope he comes back."
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emblem21

Major
Registered Member
So
This is a very sad story back from 2017 I thought still carries a lot of relevance to today. A Chinese soldier accidentally wandered into Indian territory and ended up being trapped there in a 50+ year nightmare. Imagine if the 60 Indian soldiers captured by the Chinese on June 15 were only released back to India in the 2070s? Thanks to the BBC, now we know this tragic story. Pathetic for a country that always claims the moral high ground and plays the victim in this dispute.

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somehow, I feeling that the USA and India are the last countries that should ever be talking about human rights and moral superiority. I honestly hope that the economic collapse/coronavirus pandemic hits these two country brutally and with as much damage as possible, if only to show that constant lying isn’t going to go unpunished although with the current economy and current amount of infected expected to rise without end, that day won’t be too far away
 

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
This is a very sad story back from 2017 I thought still carries a lot of relevance to today. A Chinese soldier accidentally wandered into Indian territory and ended up being trapped there in a 50+ year nightmare. Imagine if the 60 Indian soldiers captured by the Chinese on June 15 were only released back to India in the 2070s? Thanks to the BBC, now we know this tragic story. Pathetic for a country that always claims the moral high ground and plays the victim in this dispute.

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some say he was a defector
 

Maxef208

New Member
Registered Member
I don't think China is about to invade India or Taiwan any time soon.

I think what China has done so far on the LAC is arguably, as much as it CAN do, as it has advanced its troops to the limit of the LAC as China perceives it at Depsang Bottleneck, Galwan, Pangong Lake, and Demchok, and presenting India with a fait accompli. The clash with deaths was a risk China took, and fortunately that has been contained as Modi and the top Indian leadership have backed down. Even if in the next few months an insubordinate junior commander in the Indian army opens fire, I still think the top leadership on both sides would immediately seek a way to cool tensions because India has made the correct assessment that this is a war with China that cannot be fought.

Now, true, I've been stating that the long term goal of India is for an independent Tibet. However, China can't simply launch a war of aggression to break India up. The best course for China in the long run is, of course, to remain wealthy, powerful, and united itself.
China will only attack Taiwan if Taiwan does something nutty like unanimously vote independence and expect the US military to intervene on their behalf and maybe it will coordinate this with the US considering it's "shift towards China" that seems unanimous between both parties. I only hear rumors that Taiwanese who are more affectionate towards the mainland or just not hateful end up moving there, and that may be swinging the votes towards Green party, idk how true that is.
 

vesicles

Colonel
An independent Tibet is simply not going to happen.
There are only 3million people in Tibet, and they are well on the way to assimilation.

I would say that China should continue to use Kashmir and the Indian Northeast as leverage.

India will be a lot more careful if they know that China would enable their independence, if India joined an anti-China alliance like the Quad.

I honestly don’t believe China will support any effort for independence by anyone, even Kashmir and India. One of the core interests of China is to keep its own territory intact, and prevent any efforts within its own borders to become independent, mainly Taiwan. That means China will NOT encourage any form of independence of any kind anywhere in the world. They don’t want to give the Taiwanese any ideas. This is their core interest, and should supersede any other temporary threats.
 

jimmyjames30x30

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't think China is about to invade India or Taiwan any time soon.

I think what China has done so far on the LAC is arguably, as much as it CAN do, as it has advanced its troops to the limit of the LAC as China perceives it at Depsang Bottleneck, Galwan, Pangong Lake, and Demchok, and presenting India with a fait accompli. The clash with deaths was a risk China took, and fortunately that has been contained as Modi and the top Indian leadership have backed down. Even if in the next few months an insubordinate junior commander in the Indian army opens fire, I still think the top leadership on both sides would immediately seek a way to cool tensions because India has made the correct assessment that this is a war with China that cannot be fought.

Now, true, I've been stating that the long term goal of India is for an independent Tibet. However, China can't simply launch a war of aggression to break India up. The best course for China in the long run is, of course, to remain wealthy, powerful, and united itself.

China is not stupid like Japan was in WW2. China does NOT want a separated India. A separated India is a vulnerable India with a LOT of people. It also has nuclear, biological and chemical weapon that could very easily find itself in the hands of terrorists. A separated India is also not going to be an independent India, this means that other great power (namely the US, UK, France, Russia, Pakistan, and even Japan), will seek to fill the power vacuum, which is very bad for China.
Right now, the subcontinent's balance of power is still quite stable. China can inexpensively exert enough deterrent on India, with the help of Pakistan, Nepal and some times Bangladesh to keep a balance of power in the region. If China somehow breaks India up, then the shared interest between China, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh would be gone. Other great powers will come in, the whole region will become complicated again, and China will be dragged into the conflict.
 

Inst

Captain
I think the senior Indian leadership understands that there is no military option. On the other hand, China does not claim past the LAC. So most likely, we are going to be at a new status quo. Whether that was worth it from China's point of view, who knows. I'm sure there are additional considerations at play here other than the pure border claim with India.

The two terrifying words for the Indian leadership should be Vietnamization and Brazilianization.

What do these words mean? Vietnamization -> being forced to overspend on the military in order to fend off a strategic threat, impoverishing your economy. It is a Sun-zian way of winning without fighting.

Brazilianization -> being forced into a middle income trap by a superior power

Even if India doesn't throw any punches, it still faces the threat of China Vietnamizing it so that it can Brazilianize it. If India is stuck spending huge amounts on defense, for nationalist glory, it's not spending money on human capital and physical capital upgrades. Unless you're running a militarily parasitic economy (see Nazi Germany, Spanish Empire), guns don't make money.
 
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