2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Chill, we don't know the details of their assassination. Iranian scientists have been killed in many weird and unimaginable ways in the past.
But yes if it's just an airstrike assassination plain stupidity on their end
That's exactly what I'm saying. It has happened many times in the past and it just happened again. It really doesn't matter how it happened this time. They weren't in defended bunkers hunted down after the nation falls like national assets should be protected.

When China underwent our nuclear weapons program, Chinese nuclear scientists lived for years, not seeing their families or even the sun in fortified underground bunker labs in the middle of the desert free from all foreign spying. It was eat, sleep, nuclear science. That's it, and they successfully carried the weight of the nation on their shoulders. Iranian scientists work 9-5, go home to regular housing, buy all thier shit from markets like they're just normal people outside of work.
 

Aegis21

Junior Member
Registered Member
I'm not sure what people were expecting from an all out Israeli attack. Iran is not Hezbollah, it has strategic depth and can afford to take many hits. The level of damage reported so far seems to be well within expectations. Nobody was expecting Iran to shoot down ballistic missiles. China and Russia both refused to sell modern fighter planes. So losing some replaceable commanders and some damage to Natanz is "ok" as long as Fordow is safe. There haven't been any reports of an attack on Fordow, which is crucial for the nuclear breakout option.

Iran can respond with ballistic missiles as well and we already know that Israel can't defend against them either. All this attack will do is to shift the nuclear program closer to weaponisation. The enriched uranium isn't disappearing. Iran can already build probably around 20 bombs. That's not quite enough to survive a first strike, but it's getting there. Unlike north Korea, Iran will need more nukes after the first test because it doesn't have China to protect it

For years Iran kept itself safe by threatening to go nuclear but never took the final step because it would be condemned by the whole world if there was no good justification. China would most likely have joined sanctions on Iran and that's enough to deter nuclearisation. But now, it might be possible to exit the npt without triggering Chinese and international sanctions. There is still the October deadline for the UN snapback to keep in mind. Iran will likely try to get across that line at huge costs to itself. Losing Natanz to get un sanctions removed permanently is a cheap price


Iran's mistake was to incorporate western style democratic elements like elections and anti government media in its system. Many countries with elections have seen major anti government protests. And yet, even as so many governments around the world have fallen to colour revolutions or student protests, Iran is still here. Of course people are unhappy about the economy etc. But the level of hatred for their own country's system is probably not too out of the ordinary. But western media keep amplifying anything anti government out of proportion while keeping quiet about similar protests in Europe
It was always a Catch-22 for Iran. Israel always destabilized Iran (assassination, hacking) and built up forces to launch all out attacks like today. If Iran wanted to commit to nuclear breakout, they would be attacked by both Israel and the US.
 

texx1

Junior Member
@texx1
And you believe the US government? Who gave Israel a free pass over Iraqi airspace? Who do you think is doing aerial refueling of Israeli airplanes and feeding them with Intel?
I believe Trump didn't want Israel to sabotage his negotiation. I can't say for those Iran hawks in his administration like Lindsey Graham.

Trump always wants to be one to call the shots. For initial strike waves, Israel air force could have launched standoff weapons from Syrian airspace.
 

lube

Junior Member
Registered Member
Do what? Their nuclear facilities all look like a bucket of Legos that someone set on fire now.

They're going after the scientists because the underground facilities are too hard to take out completely.
Unless Trump lets Israel borrow some planes, they're not going to have the bunker busters to finish the job.
 
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