This suggests the US didn't see it coming. Otherwise they would've pre-moved them. Look at the flight radar in mid February 2022 - Ukrainian skies were cleared of passenger planes.
2025 Israel - Iranian conflict
- Thread starter Maikeru
- Start date
China's has her own economic interests at play. Why should they do Iran biding during trade negotiations with the US instead of naargaining with their own economic interests?
If Iran thought they could stand up to the west without forming a formal military, economic and diplomatic alliance with a great power then they only have themselves to blame, and maybe they believe they have the capabilities to stand up to any power that wants to threaten them. If not I don't understand what their goals are. So I believe China should stay away from this like they have been doing so far. China doesn't have much interests in Iran anyway, compared to even a volatile country like Pakistan. Iran is wary of every foreign power and doesn't allow much depth for any foreign power to be involved or have some control over their industries and defence.. They should be able to handle themselves alone. Afterall, the US is not the one bombing them, if that was the case then I will be more worried..
I'm not sure what people were expecting from an all out Israeli attack. Iran is not Hezbollah, it has strategic depth and can afford to take many hits. The level of damage reported so far seems to be well within expectations. Nobody was expecting Iran to shoot down ballistic missiles. China and Russia both refused to sell modern fighter planes. So losing some replaceable commanders and some damage to Natanz is "ok" as long as Fordow is safe. There haven't been any reports of an attack on Fordow, which is crucial for the nuclear breakout option.
Iran can respond with ballistic missiles as well and we already know that Israel can't defend against them either. All this attack will do is to shift the nuclear program closer to weaponisation. The enriched uranium isn't disappearing. Iran can already build probably around 20 bombs. That's not quite enough to survive a first strike, but it's getting there. Unlike north Korea, Iran will need more nukes after the first test because it doesn't have China to protect it
For years Iran kept itself safe by threatening to go nuclear but never took the final step because it would be condemned by the whole world if there was no good justification. China would most likely have joined sanctions on Iran and that's enough to deter nuclearisation. But now, it might be possible to exit the npt without triggering Chinese and international sanctions. There is still the October deadline for the UN snapback to keep in mind. Iran will likely try to get across that line at huge costs to itself. Losing Natanz to get un sanctions removed permanently is a cheap price
Iran can respond with ballistic missiles as well and we already know that Israel can't defend against them either. All this attack will do is to shift the nuclear program closer to weaponisation. The enriched uranium isn't disappearing. Iran can already build probably around 20 bombs. That's not quite enough to survive a first strike, but it's getting there. Unlike north Korea, Iran will need more nukes after the first test because it doesn't have China to protect it
For years Iran kept itself safe by threatening to go nuclear but never took the final step because it would be condemned by the whole world if there was no good justification. China would most likely have joined sanctions on Iran and that's enough to deter nuclearisation. But now, it might be possible to exit the npt without triggering Chinese and international sanctions. There is still the October deadline for the UN snapback to keep in mind. Iran will likely try to get across that line at huge costs to itself. Losing Natanz to get un sanctions removed permanently is a cheap price
Iran's mistake was to incorporate western style democratic elements like elections and anti government media in its system. Many countries with elections have seen major anti government protests. And yet, even as so many governments around the world have fallen to colour revolutions or student protests, Iran is still here. Of course people are unhappy about the economy etc. But the level of hatred for their own country's system is probably not too out of the ordinary. But western media keep amplifying anything anti government out of proportion while keeping quiet about similar protests in Europe
Israel wouldn't be launching any ground invasion of Iran, they can't even if they wanted to since they don't border Iran unlike Saddams Iraq, its silly to even think that. Moreover, the Iran-Iraw war was a different era. The mullahs had just taken power after riding behind the popular protests movement from people in Iran against the shah regime. So I guess many Iranians still had some hope and belief in the new regime and even those who were reluctant or cautious were at best neutral and adopted a wait and see posture towards the new rulers, so Iraq invading Iran immediately following that period was different since the people were still united over such issues even back then. However, today is different, after decades of mullah rule, many have grown tired, dissapinted and dissatisfied with the regime. Else you wouldn't have seen so many mass protests despite the threat of death penalties and heavy handedness for going against the regime.. So I'm afraid things are not the same as the 1979 start of Iran-Iraq war.
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China has been trading with Iran despite the sanctions, don't use China as an excuse for Iran's failure
Edit: I used to be in favor of China selling high tech weaponries to Iran. In hindsight I'm glad it didn't happened. The moment J-10C landed in Iran mossad would have the complete blueprints within the hour
I must point out that this is the actual core of the issue.
Iran isn't a real dictatorship despite what the dissidents say. And that is why it is so weak and easy to infiltrate. It has all the negatives of a typical 3rd world democracy like India or Nigeria.
