I'm not sure what people were expecting from an all out Israeli attack. Iran is not Hezbollah, it has strategic depth and can afford to take many hits. The level of damage reported so far seems to be well within expectations. Nobody was expecting Iran to shoot down ballistic missiles. China and Russia both refused to sell modern fighter planes. So losing some replaceable commanders and some damage to Natanz is "ok" as long as Fordow is safe. There haven't been any reports of an attack on Fordow, which is crucial for the nuclear breakout option.
Iran can respond with ballistic missiles as well and we already know that Israel can't defend against them either. All this attack will do is to shift the nuclear program closer to weaponisation. The enriched uranium isn't disappearing. Iran can already build probably around 20 bombs. That's not quite enough to survive a first strike, but it's getting there. Unlike north Korea, Iran will need more nukes after the first test because it doesn't have China to protect it
For years Iran kept itself safe by threatening to go nuclear but never took the final step because it would be condemned by the whole world if there was no good justification. China would most likely have joined sanctions on Iran and that's enough to deter nuclearisation. But now, it might be possible to exit the npt without triggering Chinese and international sanctions. There is still the October deadline for the UN snapback to keep in mind. Iran will likely try to get across that line at huge costs to itself. Losing Natanz to get un sanctions removed permanently is a cheap price
Iran's mistake was to incorporate western style democratic elements like elections and anti government media in its system. Many countries with elections have seen major anti government protests. And yet, even as so many governments around the world have fallen to colour revolutions or student protests, Iran is still here. Of course people are unhappy about the economy etc. But the level of hatred for their own country's system is probably not too out of the ordinary. But western media keep amplifying anything anti government out of proportion while keeping quiet about similar protests in Europe
I agree with you Iran has strategic depth. They have the huge population. Western sanctions have made them hardened and insulated from western economic hits. They also have their own industry. So, overall they have everything to launch a full scale war against Israel. The only thing that is in doubt is the morale of the populaton and morale of the leadership. If they chicken out, if they get afraid then that is the end of it.
If they have the grit and the morale then Iran should not go for a single strike or two. They should go for a war of Attrition. We should look at Russia Ukraine war for this. Russia was also heavily penetrated by western intelligence and there have been many embarassing hits against Russia that surprised us many times. But look what Russia has done, they have understood their weaknesses and strengths and focused on what they can do best, which is to use their strategic depth and go on a war of attrition against Ukraine.
War of Attrition is the only kind of war where the west is guaranteed to lose. They have lost in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and recently against the Houthis. That is key to defeating the west and Israel. Grind them out.
Iran should focus on a slow and steady grinding war of Attrition with missiles and drones. Send missiles and drones for the next several years. Make life a living hell in Israel. Ofcourse Israel will hit back, there will be huge losses for Iran as well. But they have the depth to withstand it if their morale is strong.
Lets see how they go.
