Yuan Class AIP & Kilo Submarine Thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
Have there been hints of an 039 successor? From what I read here, it seems that most of the rumours in the tea leaves suggest that the PLAN will be devoting all its submarine engineering efforts to nuclear ones (whether that mini nuke thing or the real stuff) from here on out.
Feels like the nuclear sub advocates have the upper hand by far, since they got the government to approve the massive shipyard.
I'd guess China found good methods to translate SSK experience to SSN, and the military wants SSNs for their range and endurance, which tbh makes sense because it can project power without being reliant on foreign bases, since those are not in plentiful supply yet.
it's because SSKs like Song really don't offer anything more than what UUVs would offer in the future. At least Yuan with AIP has a little more endurance and quieter. They can be used for ambush and such if datalinking works. What do you do with a sub that has to constantly surface?
With where satellite technology is right now and likely to be, you really can't hide anywhere if you are surfaced or at close to that.
With where satellite technology is right now and likely to be, you really can't hide anywhere if you are surfaced or at close to that.
Then is it logical to say: once we see huge decommission of 039 Song and 035B (no kidding, latest one entered service at 2004, even later than Kilo joined PLAN, of which we already knew one is done so), we can "guess" how China's UUV is progressing?
-- I know: not that easy to learn details of decommission of PLAN, unless very obvious
My impression is 039C keeps joining at a relative trickle to replace older boats (notably the last remaining 035 series hulls). Its a little bit like new 072A getting produced to replace older LSTs, but whereas with amphibs the main effort is on LHDs now, with submarines the main effort is indeed to get the nuclear powered fleet up to speed.
Wouldn’t some lines of SSK development remain open for export, tho’?
I think even for domestic requirements they will stay open. There will IMO not be a full on tilt like say with the US channeling funding fully towards nuclear powered designs. But at the same time I do think any export motivations remain secondary considerations (unlike say with the way German manufacturers were geared after WW2).
I don't think UUVs will replace manned fleet subs of any nature in the coming few decades. Subs, by their nature, work with very limited data (no radar, no active sonar, sporadic communications). This means human intuition is very important for submarines which is why submarine crews get a special treatment in most navies. What they do is more art than science. AI will likely not reach that level for a few more decades.
SSNs will get roles that SSKs can't fullfill like anti-shipping patrols in the Pacific Ocean therefore they won't be available for missions SSKs are currently tasked with. There are just too many to replace in a reasonable time period. So I expect China to maintain a fleet of a few dozen SSKs for decades to come which means we are likely to see a Yuan successor at some point.