its not certain that Taiwan and Japan will 'fight back with everything they have', Taiwan isn't dead set on separatists there are lots of different factions who are opportunistic, their public is shifting take '馆长‘ for example, as matter of fact, lots of people are sick of being sitting under the hanging sword they just want to see a certain future no matter which side wins, they have everything to lose unlike the Ukrainians, why engage a war while you can sip your milktea the next day? Japan, on the other hand, they have no legit cause to be involved in such a pivotal war (it could turn out to be a total war), it's strict Chinese internal affair, the civil war is still going on, there never is any official truce, only temporary cease fire, the mainland is always hesitant towards Taiwan, can't say the same for Japan, if Japan decides to be the mole, they will be whacked and facing the risk of losing Okinawa
US conflict in the Americas
- Thread starter BasilicaLew
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Everything you've said is valid but only half the picture. America is not standing still and lashes out to deal some damage to China every once in a while.
American may have the ability to chase China to the finish line and if it is able to get there first, it would spell disaster. China should aim to undermine America at every turn at least as much as they do. That is the crux.
All China have to do is break the silicon shield that taiwan has an it already on track to do that by 2028 or 2030 with euv development once that is tmsc monopoly broken then losses the main thing it's got an then Taiwan will be toss the side
But US isn't in control of the country or its resources are they? Trump will need to do a lot more than make claims if he actually wants to do so, right now even he knows he can't install Machado because nobody will listen to her, even he knows he has to cooperate with Maduro's government.
There is no next in line, it's still the same government, same treaties with China, same line.
that would be the best case scenarios but can China wait that long, one factor to consider is the public, the nationalists are actually eagerly looking forward to 2026-2027, if by then the CCP hasn't done anything and somehow the global geopolitics and domestic economy get worse for China, they would have to do something even at risk, only time will tell...
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
It's more than half; it's the big picture.
Scientifically and technologically, it's not moving fast compared to China.
Superficial, while China strikes deep into the heart of American tech-dependent dominance every day.
I don't understand this. There is no finish line and China is running faster.
Sure, but there are some things that are their specialty and not ours. We can develop ourselves to marginalize the importance of those specialties but we are not at the point where we can beat them militarily in their own back yard. We continue to strike at them with our specialties which they cannot counter and are crucial to controlling the future, but unfortunately sometimes, we have to tolerate when they strike at us in their specialities as long as we can manage and sideline the importance of the damage.
I will bet China can and will want that more thing passes the stronger China gets in semiconductor and military it don't make sense to attack in 2027
American is not scientifically and technologically stagnant. They are not moving as fast as China granted but the rest is conjecture about their progress. They've gone all in on AI which is extremely foolish especially with their AI industry being powered by Chinese nationals and Chinese Americans who could easily turn tail and give China the shortcut if America ever does even get to AGI/ASI. In other fields they are still moving forward despite the gap being enlarged by China.
The finish line here is defined as the line where you achieve the ability to completely overwhelm the other in such a fashion you basically can stop the other's development. E.g. China vs US in 1950s before China got the nuke. There are greater technological horizons in humanity's future.
Alternatively, the chasm between the two could be made so wide it is equivalent to passing "the finish line".
Of course we are not at the point of defeating the US in their own back yard. The US used to have this over China though. While this is no longer the case and the balance between tech/capability and quantity may lie somewhere around the second island chain, China is far from building up enough of a naval overkill where US backyard (second island chain equivalent) can be militarily controlled by China.
It may be a western specialty for Machiavellian tactics and deceit but China ought to get upskilled here too. There is an abundance of people and resources to begin. It might come useful in future.
Isn't it better to hit back and absorb damage than to only absorb damage?
Situation is becoming worse and worse for China every year on every perspectives.
What is it that you think the US did? Did they get Venezuela to actually hand over their oil to US oil companies? Did they terminate any deals with China? Even Trump had to write off Machado and acknowledge has has to work with the China friendly government in power, what does that say about real soft power?
Meanwhile China got even Argentina's Miley to renew RMB swap and continue RMB trade not to mention rest of South America, notice China did so without military threats.
If US had soft power they'd be able to get Venezuela to hand US oil contracts without conflict, as China did around the world, if US had hard power they would have boots on ground by now and physically control the oil, as China is planning for Taiwan. As it is they achieved neither.
The reality of both hard and soft power is, those that actually have it just get things without any theatrics because it become matter of course.
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