Trump 2.0 official thread

[huemens]

Essentially giving US a 6 month reprieve for what exactly, the restrictions US added as a retaliation to the rare earth controls? That's pretty much saying that US retaliated and China caved because of the retaliation.

Really disappointed if this is the agreement. China chickened out and Trump overpowered them with controls on jet engines for Comac and student visas.

China gave up its most powerful leverage for nothing. Now US and the entire world knows China has leverage on rare earth and they will start investing heavily to mitigate that. So the leverage has an expiration date now.

Those things were offered upfront by US going into the meeting. So if that was all China was seeking the meeting would have been over in 5 minutes, not 3 days. So clearly China asked for something else.
If those were the things agreed upon by the end of the meeting, then US should not have any problem disclosing it and there wouldn't be any more pondering needed from the US side as they were already willing for those things based on Hassett's earlier remarks. Instead Trump kept that part vague and only mention student visas, which probably were not even a talking point in London, because Hassett failed to mention that in those remarks.
Hours after Trump posted his tweet, WH press secretary was asked about it and she said he is going through the details with his team. Furthermore, Lutnick said that it would still take several days to finalize the deal and that even when it gets done there's unlikely to be a publicly shared written text of it.
All of this suggests there being other things than those "new sanctions and reversals" US just prepped up for this meeting. There may be things not even export related and things that are never going to be made public.

 

[fishrubber99]

Delete

 

[PandaAI]

According to wall street Journal (US newspaper of record & had the most accurate analysis on the makeup of CCP standing committee during 20th congress), China will grant six month valid rare earth licenses for US firms. In return US will allow export of jet engines and ethane. During the trade talk, US didn't loosen its export restrictions on high end chips and associated technologies.

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“As part of the trade framework, the people said, the temporary rare-earths licenses Beijing is expected to start issuing immediately will mostly involve elements used in manufacturing electric vehicles, wind turbines, consumer electronics and military equipment.”

Military equipment? Surely this can’t be true. There is no way China agreed to give rare earths to the US military.

 

[oseaidjubzac]

Everyone should understand that China's current rare earth supply operates under a quota system + licensing + time restrictions. This means the quantity of rare earths China supplies, the quotas, and the duration are all specifically limited—contingent on the actual conduct of the U.S. side. The initiative now lies with China. As for what Trump said, it's irrelevant—he himself doesn't even care about what he previously said, so why should we?

 

[Phead128]

Essentially giving US a 6 month reprieve for what exactly, the restrictions US added as a retaliation to the rare earth controls? That's pretty much saying that US retaliated and China caved because of the retaliation.

Really disappointed if this is the agreement. China chickened out and Trump overpowered them with controls on jet engines for Comac and student visas.

China gave up its most powerful leverage for nothing. Now US and the entire world knows China has leverage on rare earth and they will start investing heavily to mitigate that. So the leverage has an expiration date now.

Too early to jump to conclusions. Usually Trump cabinet doesn't reveal the full extent of the key details, they will drip news over the next week, but by then, headlines would have moved to another event, the people's limited attention span will have focused something else/changed. The full key details will be revealed by WSJ or Chinese media later, just be patient.

Also, trade negotiations under normal circumstances takes many months if not years, we are in the 'concepts of a framework to maybe begin discussion about a trade deal', baby step.

 

[siegecrossbow]

According to Trump's statement, China has not benefited at all, which is completely unequal.

According to Trump he is the greatest President in the world. According to Jai Hinds non of the IAF jets were shot down on May 7th.

 

[texx1]

“As part of the trade framework, the people said, the temporary rare-earths licenses Beijing is expected to start issuing immediately will mostly involve elements used in manufacturing electric vehicles, wind turbines, consumer electronics and military equipment.”

Military equipment? Surely this can’t be true. There is no way China agreed to give rare earths to the US military.

Boeing defense won’t get a rare earth license. What about one of Boeing defense’s civilian sub-contractor who also supplies EV car makers?

Rare earth minerals are dual use. US civilian companies can divert a portion of their approved supplies to defense industry.

Unlike lithography machines which companies can somewhat use imbedded location software to track, there is no real way for China to track whether exported rare earth minerals end up in EV manufacturers or missile makers. Sending physical inspection teams to US is a nonstarter. Trump would never agree to it.

I think the wall street journal article just alluded to the point that China lacks meaningful inspection methods for proper end use of rare earth minerals once they arrived in US.

 

[Iracundus]

According to Trump he is the greatest President in the world. According to Jai Hinds non of the IAF jets were shot down on May 7th.

According to Trump he is a savior that saved China from splintering and imploding into separate states and civil unrest and revolution by agreeing to back down on tariffs as if instead of TACOing, he were instead doing some magnanimous gesture to save a desperate collapsing China. Seriously, this is delusional stuff.

 

[vincent]

Boeing defense won’t get a rare earth license. What about one of Boeing defense’s civilian sub-contractor who also supplies EV car makers?

Rare earth minerals are dual use. US civilian companies can divert a portion of their approved supplies to defense industry.

Read this article:

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[siegecrossbow]

Boeing defense won’t get a rare earth license. What about one of Boeing defense’s civilian sub-contractor who also supplies EV car makers?

Rare earth minerals are dual use. US civilian companies can divert a portion of their approved supplies to defense industry.

Unlike lithography machines which companies can somewhat use imbedded location software to track, there is no real way for China to track whether exported rare earth minerals end up in EV manufacturers or missile makers. Sending physical inspection teams to US is a nonstarter. Trump would never agree to it.

I think the wall street journal article just alluded to the point that China lacks meaningful inspection methods for proper end use of rare earth minerals once they arrived in US.

Technically 7nm CPUs used in Mate 60PRO and 100nm CPUs used in my kid’s toy crab are both CPUs. One of them is cheaper and easier to make. Same thing with rare earth minerals. Guess which one is needed to make F-35s?