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Twitter liberals: "What are we, a bunch of Chinese?"
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- Thread starter siegecrossbow
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Twitter liberals: "What are we, a bunch of Chinese?"
As a reminder, there are multiple categories of export controls and very little clarity on which ones are/aren't affected by the recent agreement.
And on the particular subject of ethane restrictions, even a DC thinktank like CSIS blasted them as stupid and counterproductive.
And on the particular subject of ethane restrictions, even a DC thinktank like CSIS blasted them as stupid and counterproductive.
As I have already mentioned in an earlier post. Trump would never allow Chinese inspection teams to physically track exported rare earth minerals in US. You can only rely so much on the words and documents provided by US companies.
As for trump, he is a boastful bully, but that doesn’t mean people in his administration won’t use powerful but underhanded leverage to bring china into compliance with the truce “deal”. US government restricted Chinese international students and US commerce secretary Lutnick threatened to go after Chinese banks’ US subsidiaries in today’s interview on CNBC.
If one were to take a cynical view of the elites, US is logical to use threats against Chinese elites’ children (their education & visiting rights) and their assets in US controlled financial system as negotiating leverage.
I was thinking for the China U.S. negotiations, what each side would want from the other.
For the U.S.,
1. Rare earths, high urgency for many industries.
2. Bond purchases, U.S. desperately need the world to buy more bonds
3. Agricultural and energy products. Many farmers faced hardship or even bankruptcy
For China,
1. EUV/DUV. The Chinese can already do DUV, but more from ASML will accelerate Chinese dominance in 28nm+ chip production. EUV will be ready in China in one or two years, but getting them now will allow China to make state of the art chips today.
2. EDA, China already has EDA, but from what I heard, not quite ready for the more advanced nodes.
2. Chips, China can make do with what they got, but more will accelerate their AI development.
3. Taiwan (no more arms sale), I think they can tack this on, it does not change things too much.
4. Lower Tariffs and other barriers. More sales to the U.S. is better than less. There will be some unemployment with less sale to the U.S.
5. Jet engine for C-919. the CJ-1000 was rumored to be ready by next year, and I am sure China would have some engines stockpiled, but it is good to have these engines.
None of the things China would want is really that urgent and they can manage without them. On the other hand, the rare earths are really hurting the U.S. The bond purchase is more fungible, but China has the biggest foreign reserves. Given the much stronger hand the Chinese have compared to the U.S., I suspect that the U.S. made a deal where a great deal of the details will not be revealed to the U.S. public. I am sure the Chinese would leak this to other world leaders to encourage them to make better deals for themselves. Trump would have been better off had he not started this trade war.
For the U.S.,
1. Rare earths, high urgency for many industries.
2. Bond purchases, U.S. desperately need the world to buy more bonds
3. Agricultural and energy products. Many farmers faced hardship or even bankruptcy
For China,
1. EUV/DUV. The Chinese can already do DUV, but more from ASML will accelerate Chinese dominance in 28nm+ chip production. EUV will be ready in China in one or two years, but getting them now will allow China to make state of the art chips today.
2. EDA, China already has EDA, but from what I heard, not quite ready for the more advanced nodes.
2. Chips, China can make do with what they got, but more will accelerate their AI development.
3. Taiwan (no more arms sale), I think they can tack this on, it does not change things too much.
4. Lower Tariffs and other barriers. More sales to the U.S. is better than less. There will be some unemployment with less sale to the U.S.
5. Jet engine for C-919. the CJ-1000 was rumored to be ready by next year, and I am sure China would have some engines stockpiled, but it is good to have these engines.
None of the things China would want is really that urgent and they can manage without them. On the other hand, the rare earths are really hurting the U.S. The bond purchase is more fungible, but China has the biggest foreign reserves. Given the much stronger hand the Chinese have compared to the U.S., I suspect that the U.S. made a deal where a great deal of the details will not be revealed to the U.S. public. I am sure the Chinese would leak this to other world leaders to encourage them to make better deals for themselves. Trump would have been better off had he not started this trade war.
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China paused application review including permitted users, China will now resume application review for permitted users, China never said all applications will all be approved, i.e. no more export control.
Trump doesn't have to allow anything, it's up to US companies to prove compliance, if they're unable to do so with or without Chinese teams on site, they won't get approved. China isn't cracking down on smuggling if China doesn't intend on strictly enforcing end use.
Making threats is America's MO, it's their nature, that doesn't translate into their ability to actually execute on any threats.
China not making threats on TV also doesn't mean China isn't making threats, case in point pausing RE license review was done without any statement.
Infact if you follow timeline, it could very well be China that paused automotive license review in response to US threats, literally do nothing win.
US playing the ethane card was pretty dumb, not only does it do nothing to China, it also telegraphs they have no card left.
Bro most of those exporters are American, European, SK and Japanese company. Apple alone accounts for 22% of Chinese exports to the US. So the narrative that China suffers is false and the one who is lobbying the most are the multinationals.
From my readings, the Chinese restriction strategy is the right one, a total ban will force your customers to be your competitor, destroying your monopoly.
This will happen regardless. US will fund and state subsidize their own RE refineries no matter what, the problem is whether China can capitalize on their temporary weakness
US has literally been trying to do that for the past 15 years, ever since the first rare earth cutoff in 2010. Industrial policy is not a magic wand, and it is entirely possible to squander enormous resources making little to no progress. Not even mentioning the extra idiocy of Trump unwinding Biden's efforts. Aligning government policies with investor incentives is a painful balancing act, always has been. The difference is that China at least has lots of recent practice (and no shortage of failures) to learn from. US doesn't.
For example, US choking off semiconductors was a huge catalyst for Chinese industry. If US was smart enough to lift restrictions after say a year of negotiations, they would still have way more control than they do now. Certainty is key. Private sector doesn't move unless it has absolutely no hope of alternatives. Not because they are stupid. Because they will lose if they waste money and their competitors don't. People are only as smart as they are incentivized to be.
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