The War in the Ukraine

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Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
gadgetcool5 said:
The Russians are really losing the war now. According to the foreign affairs chief of the WSJ, a new poll shows support for the war in Russia has dropped to 48%.

The question is why are they still losing? If it's a matter of manpower and policy (such as limiting strikes on Ukrainian targets) they can turn it around. If they are outgunned by superior NATO technology they are really in trouble.
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It’s a combination of poor training, terrible battle planning and a dire lack of manpower. At the start of the war, the Russian Ground Forces had 300,000 men in uniform, including conscripts. Ukraine had up to 250,000 men at that point including the territorial defense units.

Against a determined Ukranian defense, Russia needed to amass at least 750,000 to ensure a quick and decisive victory. But they didn’t take Ukranian capabilities seriously not did they understand the extent of anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine.

They are now up against a fully mobilized nation state with over 700,000 men (and growing) in uniform buttressed by the largest military alliance in the world. Russia needed to begin mobilization back in April, but Putin the chronic procrastinator that he has always been, preferred to kick the can down the road. Well, surprise, surprise : he just ran out of road.
 
Broccoli

Broccoli

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A

Abominable

Major
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Zichan said:
It’s a combination of poor training, terrible battle planning and a dire lack of manpower. At the start of the war, the Russian Ground Forces had 300,000 men in uniform, including conscripts. Ukraine had up to 250,000 men at that point including the territorial defense units.

Against a determined Ukranian defense, Russia needed to amass at least 750,000 to ensure a quick and decisive victory. But they didn’t take Ukranian capabilities seriously not did they understand the extent of anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine.

They are now up against a fully mobilized nation state with over 700,000 men (and growing) in uniform buttressed by the largest military alliance in the world. Russia needed to begin mobilization back in April, but Putin the chronic procrastinator that he has always been, preferred to kick the can down the road. Well, surprise, surprise : he just ran out of road.
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None of that sh*t helped the ANA against the Taliban. As far as the Russians should be concerned, the more Ukrainians in uniform the better. Putin just needs to stop this "special military operation" and treat it as a war for Russia's survival as he says it is.
 
S

sheogorath

Major
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Broccoli said:
One of the reasons why they are running.
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Seems totally legit. 6 HIMARS every couple of days(when they are not wasting them on a bridge or downtown Donetsk) gets them to run while the ubermensch in the AFU can withstand 60.000 rounds fired at them every day.

You are just posting propaganda of little value for military discusion, at this point

Broccoli said:
Russia is continuing it's war against Ukrainian civilians as their military loses on battlefield.
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What would you make of the Ukranians firing +100 rounds per day into Kherson and Donetsk, then.

On the other hand, lots of talk on the success in Kharkov but there is no mention of the costs for the Ukranians, even if the Russians are undermaned in the area, because they are still getting hammered by artillery and helicopters. You'd think they are renacting the Battle of 73 Easting.

And nothing is happening in Kherson, either.
bagdad-bob.jpg
 
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baykalov

baykalov

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Zelensky's regime has deliberately and purposefully attacked civilian convoys in recent days in Zaporizhzhya and Kharkiv. The Western media is silent and covering up these terrorist attacks and mass murders of civilians.

Today in Zaporizhzhya:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1575763573606731776


A few days ago in the Kharkiv area:

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The Ukrainian army has attacked a refugee convoy in the eastern region of Kharkov, killing over 30 people, according to the Lugansk People’s Republic’s envoy to Russia.

Miroshnik claimed the Ukrainian army knew exactly who they were shooting at, as they had allegedly used drones to track down the refugee vehicle convoy and were “intentionally aiming at civilians.” Kiev has yet to respond to the allegations.
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A

Anlsvrthng

Captain
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tankphobia said:
Well this is running under the assumption that all the actors in this war are perfectly rational. If Ukraine were rational they would've surrendered at the start of the war due to how pessimistic the entire world was about their chances. If Russia was rational they would've started this war gloves off instead of whatever they have been doing for the last 7 months.
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Hindsight is 20/20 .

It is the same iteration process:
1. start with an a set of assumptions , like Germany and the EU won't make economical suicide.
2. develop a behaviour model on the assumptions,
3. start to do things
4. check the result, adjust the starting assumptions, and continue from point 2.
 
S

sheogorath

Major
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Ironic how it becomes a pro-Ukranian propaganda video at the end.

If there is one area where the Russians are certainly at a complete disadvantage against the Ukranians is the propaganda realm. The west is throwing almost every bit of soft power they have behind Ukraine, even if the success of it is somewhat mixed.
 
baykalov

baykalov

Senior Member
Registered Member
sheogorath said:
Ironic how it becomes a pro-Ukranian propaganda video at the end.

If there is one area where the Russians are certainly at a complete disadvantage against the Ukranians is the propaganda realm. The west is throwing almost every bit of soft power they have behind Ukraine, even if the success of it is somewhat mixed.
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Nothing new under the sun! This has been clear since the war in Syria. The Western public has again been bombarded with fake news, misinformation and propaganda about the "evil and bad dictator Assad" and the "good moderate democratic Syrian opposition".
 
tphuang

tphuang

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gadgetcool5 said:
So you are confused at why anyone might think Russia is losing and you think the last month has been a stalemate.

My question to you is, what would it take for you to admit that it is not a stalemate and that Russia is losing the war?

IMO Russia's next moves if it wants to maximize its chances are:

1) Massive expansion of the police state and repression at home to harshly punish any antiwar activists and activities.
2) Gradual expansion of partial mobilization into general mobilization, with the goal of eventually having several million men under arms in Ukraine.
3) Destroy all known transportation avenues into Ukraine from NATO countries. Destroy all roads and highways no matter how far from the front. Destroy airports like the Kiev Airport to prevent foreign dignitaries from visiting or arms from being flown in. Destroy all power infrastructure including civilian (non nuclear) power plants to damage Ukraine's economy as much as possible. Destroy power lines being served from the nuclear plants to take them offline.
4) Start putting the most powerful conventional warheads you can find on those ICBMs and IRBMs and using them.
5) Reorganize the entire economy into war production to produce as many weapons as possible.
6) Massively up the propaganda apparatus for domestic consumption. Frame it as an existential struggle for Russia.
7) Start blowing up Starlink satellites flying over Ukraine. If NATO wants to target GLONASS in return, so be it. But you don't get to use your satellites to target Russian men with impunity.

I'm not advocating for the above but that's what they'd need to do IMO.
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you are making the mistake of grading Russia's performance based on your expectation for them to beat Ukraine a lot sooner. A stalemate is what this war currently looks like. One side attacks and takes some land and big losses. Then the other side attacks, takes some land and big losses.

As for your 7 points, the vast majority of them seems to be advocating for Russia to treat this like a real war. You do understand in a war, you destroy infrastructure and fully mobilize, right?
 
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