The War in the Ukraine

Putin’s dilemma : status quo untenable, Russia on slow track to maybe lose the war. But major escalation means you raise risk/costs of losing even further. Betting it all you can four a victory. And what if that doesn’t work either? Existential spiral beginning.
What about US? Up until now precondition for massive supplies of US arms was that they weren’t used to strike Russia proper. Kremlin bets this logic will apply to annexed land. Not sure. And then what?

Overbom said:

He can declare whatever he wants.
Has he asked Ukraine though if it agrees?

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Putin can mobilize whatever he want, but he need the equipment.

BoraTas said:

Almost all established high-tech manufacturers with the exception of the USA missed the entire drone thing. You don't see Japan, Germany, Russia or the UK when it comes to drone sales. It is always the USA, China, Israel, Turkiye and Iran. This is one of the weirdest things related to the defense industry that happened in the last 20 years.

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Russia has much extensive drone and anti drone programme but export is not priority at this point as the values are too low relative to manpower. they are using it Oil/Gas pipeline inspections to reduce manpower. i doubt any one has integrated drones at this scale with artillery and rocket systems that can easily intercepted. The Iranian drone if they used it is at tactical level.

CMP said:

oh don't get me wrong, no doubt they're much more cost effective than tomahawks and other traditional tools. just trying to emphasize that china has a cost advantage that is 1 to 4 orders of magnitude for the exact same end result.

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In that regard China has a cost advantage over pretty much everybody else in almost every area, though, lol. The only possible exception being Rusia in some areas but that has more to do with the weird way Russian industry and economy is set up rather an inherent advantage.

Putin was meant to have started his speech to the nation an hour ago, but mobilization and declaration of war seems to be on the cards. stock markets in Russia has slumped 2% ahead of rumours of mobilization.

Unless they are sending conscrips directly to the front we might see a few weeks of lull for Ukranian forces to maximise their gains before Russia finishes reorganisation and send in a LOT more men. We might also finally see more heavy use of cruise missiles/strategic bombers.

tankphobia said:

Putin was meant to have started his speech to the nation an hour ago, but mobilization and declaration of war seems to be on the cards. stock markets in Russia has slumped 2% ahead of rumours of mobilization.

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Sauce? All I have heard so far is about the referendums

Overbom said:

Sauce? All I have heard so far is about the referendums

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It's on the table and lots of background chatter about it, no hard confirmation at the moment. waiting on Putin to actually start his speech which has now been delayed by 2 hrs.

Edit: there seems to be draft mobilization laws in the pipeworks

The US is considering to give Ukraine M1 main battle tanks. US general explains soke if the drawbacks associated with the tanks, like inferior mobility and increased fuel consumption:

Looks like I called it too early, address to nation was cancelled after a 2 hr delay, may have been moved for tomorrow after considering late hours. No full mobilization, maybe partial from enacting martial law in newly referendum annexed territory?

sheogorath said:

There are claims that Ukraine will receive Slovenian M55S. The M55 is a T-55 with upgraded sights and FCS, Blazer ERA and the original 100mm replaced with a 105mm L7.
Better in some aspects to the T-72M1 received from Poland, but that 105mm gun isn't going to achieve much penetration. In the days of the T-72A it was already lacking.

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This tank is trash. They might as well send them those German Leopard 1s. This just shows how Ukraine has been a dumping ground for the MIC to resell junk at full price.

Zichan said:

The US is considering to give Ukraine M1 main battle tanks. US general explains soke if the drawbacks associated with the tanks, like inferior mobility and increased fuel consumption

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Lol. So much for the Ukraine is winning and Ukraine is recovering more tanks from Russia than the tanks they lose narrative. If the M1 goes in it will just show its deficiencies, I doubt the US MIC will allow that to happen, not when sales to Poland and Taiwan are in the cards.

tankphobia said:

Putin was meant to have started his speech to the nation an hour ago, but mobilization and declaration of war seems to be on the cards. stock markets in Russia has slumped 2% ahead of rumours of mobilization.

Unless they are sending conscrips directly to the front we might see a few weeks of lull for Ukranian forces to maximise their gains before Russia finishes reorganisation and send in a LOT more men. We might also finally see more heavy use of cruise missiles/strategic bombers.

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Russia still has several group armies inside it's borders, uncommitted. The first step will be to mobilize them to wartime stance and commit them while training conscripts.