The War in the Ukraine

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
do you guys think that nato might be building up a case for intervention with regards to zaporizhzhia nuclear plant?
western media are talking about this stuff 24/7 as if whetting the general population's appetite for it
According to the long established rule of big power struggles, NO.

The rule isn't codied but has been practiced since ever. If one big power is directly involved in a country, the competing big power will avoid being officially and directly involved, otherwise the two big power will end up in direct war, that were how WWI and WWII began. Unless NATO want to enter a WWIII, it won't do anything that you are thinking. The recent examples are plenty, China wasn't officially involved in Korean war, nor Vietnam war. USSR wasn't involved in Sino-Vietnamese border war. US wasn't in Soviet's Afghan war. Even in case of Syria, US avoided confronting Syrian government force. We all know the unofficial involvement, but the avoidance of direct involvement is a redline that all respect for their own sake.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
The war will continue till all of Ukraine is controlled by Russia, from the east all the way to Lviv, there is no other option.
a deal is simply not possible, because any land in the east that falls under Russian control will become part of Russia and since any deal has to include Ukraine giving up land then a deal can never happen because if Zelensky dares to give up land then the far right Ukrainian militias will consider him a traitor and execute him publicly.
I think the current Russian strategy is to wait for plotical change during wintertime in Europe, with energy distruptions, and the next step will be based on that.
IF the EU doesn't change curse then full mobilisation and run over Ukraine, and possible over other coutnries, but most likelly the EU will be forced for political setlement.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
Every one of those is impossible after the henious and disgusting acts Ukrainian leadership have been complicit in over the better part of a decade.

Russia better stick this through, do it right and get the job completed no matter how long it takes. Or I'm going to be one angry Canadian and lose all faith in Russians.
The European NATO members can choose different strategies, it is not a binary outcome one.

There could be direct policitical setlement, or just restrictions of weapon/money supply, elimintion of any support appart from propaganda one, in exchange for gas and so on.


As soon as the money dispapear/decrease the Ukrainan position will soften dramatically, either on the front, or politically.


Ther ecould be many outcome, but the target is to fracture the war support machien of Ukraine prior of any serious military move.
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
The European NATO members can choose different strategies, it is not a binary outcome one.

There could be direct policitical setlement, or just restrictions of weapon/money supply, elimintion of any support appart from propaganda one, in exchange for gas and so on.


As soon as the money dispapear/decrease the Ukrainan position will soften dramatically, either on the front, or politically.


Ther ecould be many outcome, but the target is to fracture the war support machien of Ukraine prior of any serious military move.
This is why any time a Euro asks for compromise they need to be called out as a Russian propagandist and Putin puppet. They need to continue funding this war until they spent their last cent.
 

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
This is why any time a Euro asks for compromise they need to be called out as a Russian propagandist and Putin puppet. They need to continue funding this war until they spent their last cent.
Doesn't need to ask for compromise.

They could stop to send money and weapons, restrict flyowers of USA/UK military aids,and call all of this issue as "bureocratic problems with paperwork".

And with the current economy/energy problems anyone in the goverment could say "we have more serious issues ,like heating the homes and keep the light on".

There's more than one way to skin a cat.
.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Do you know where that quote comes from? People abuse this quote by Moltke a lot. To use Moltke (of all people) to defend Russia's performance is what I consider to be "shocking ignorance."

How sadly typical to ascribe a near-universally known fact by all mankind since the very first wars to a white man just because his words are most commonly used in the western dominated world to today.
NO RACISM ALLOWED.
Moltke didn't mean fall back to a battle of attrition whenever your plan fails. He trained his Officer Corps for exactly the opposite. His goal was to adjust to a fluid situation without getting bogged down in a battle of attrition.
Are you honestly not following what is going on in this war?! I had let similar remarks go before because I just assumed it was a weird turn of phrase, but do you actually not understand what is happening on the ground?!

Because it looks like you think the Russians are engaging in a classic battle of attrition of just evenly or even disadvantagedly trading lives with the Ukrainians because they got more blood to spare. That’s a battle of attrition and it is very much NOT how the Russians are fighting and winning this war.

What the Russians are doing is attritioning away the manpower and equipment of the armed forces of Ukraine while minimising their own losses at the expense of time.

The Russians are neither bogged down or taking unsustainable losses, it’s the Ukrainians who are running short of everything and consistently losing ground. It’s a slow grind for sure, and not as ‘sexy’ as western thunder runs, but it’s undeniable effective and also provides enormous economic and political advantages to Russia as winter approaches.

But doing this requires a lot of initiative in the field (something the Russian command structure lacks), highly trained officers and great logistics. The results of this is what Moltke's General Staff demonstrated in the War of 1870, which unlike Russia's war in Ukraine, was not a war of attrition. It was a stunning victory at very quick speed, against a larger opponent. He wrecked the French so badly, the entire world was like 'WTF.' No one expected it.

Compare that to Russia in Ukraine. It's basically the exact opposite. Case in point:



Moltke (whose quote you used) had Paris surrounded in 2 Months, and he was fighting a larger country, when his own side wasn't even a unified country yet.

Russia, on the other hand, launched in February. We're in late August, and Kiev still stands after a failed attempt at encirclement. So yea... "results speak for themselves." If/When Russia wins this war (and everyone still expects them to win in attrition) they will definitely not be getting any "style points." This is yet another cautionary tale of how not to execute a war.
The Russians initially tried that and failed due to their botched penny-pinching BTG ‘modernisation’ attempt. But they demonstrated great initiative and adaptability to very quickly reconfigure their entire war strategy and turn things around very quickly.

Rather than recognise that things had movement on, you seem to just be hang up on how the Russians are not doing revolutionary tacticalKool warfare and have little to offer beyond pointless nit picking and moaning how things aren’t going perfectly. If you don’t like how the Russians are conducting this war, how about you suggest how they could have done better?
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Sevgil Musaieva, editor in chief of Ukrainska Pravda, a Ukrainian news site,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
on Facebook that she was “personally offended” by Zelensky’s explanation, saying it called into question the intelligence of Ukrainians

“Honestly, my hair stood on end when I read what [Zelensky] said about evacuation. … How can a person who has Mariupol, Bucha and Kherson on his conscience say that an evacuation would have overwhelmed the country?”
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
journalist Bohdan Butkevich on his Facebook page

“He didn’t want to put the country on a military footing because he was afraid of losing power,” Butkevich wrote.

Looks to me like they're about to cut him loose.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
How sadly typical to ascribe a near-universally known fact by all mankind since the very first wars to a white man just because his words are most commonly used in the western dominated world to today.


Are you honestly not following what is going on in this war?! I had let similar remarks go before because I just assumed it was a weird turn of phrase, but do you actually not understand what is happening on the ground?!

Because it looks like you think the Russians are engaging in a classic battle of attrition of just evenly or even disadvantagedly trading lives with the Ukrainians because they got more blood to spare. That’s a battle of attrition and it is very much NOT how the Russians are fighting and winning this war.

What the Russians are doing is attritioning away the manpower and equipment of the armed forces of Ukraine while minimising their own losses at the expense of time.

The Russians are neither bogged down or taking unsustainable losses, it’s the Ukrainians who are running short of everything and consistently losing ground. It’s a slow grind for sure, and not as ‘sexy’ as western thunder runs, but it’s undeniable effective and also provides enormous economic and political advantages to Russia as winter approaches.


The Russians initially tried that and failed due to their botched penny-pinching BTG ‘modernisation’ attempt. But they demonstrated great initiative and adaptability to very quickly reconfigure their entire war strategy and turn things around very quickly.

Rather than recognise that things had movement on, you seem to just be hang up on how the Russians are not doing revolutionary tacticalKool warfare and have little to offer beyond pointless nit picking and moaning how things aren’t going perfectly. If you don’t like how the Russians are conducting this war, how about you suggest how they could have done better?
It's not just Russian strategy but also the difference in power from Ukraine and countries with barely functioning militaries like Iraq or Afghanistan.

Ukraine inherited a lot from the USSR whose armies were almost always superior to western Europe, which is why for most of the cold war why US invested in threatening with MAD, because USSR had conventional army supremacy.

In this war, Ukraine is firing 3-5k munitions a day, which is on a similar level to how much the American Axis were firing each day during the Iraq invasion.

So its doubtful if the "western" doctrine would even work at all, given that they've never fought an enemy with remotely as high firepower as Ukraine. If Saddam's army was shooting 5k shells a day at the invaders like Zelensky's army is, it'd probably have been a slaughter if the US forces just charge straight in. Charging in only worked due to highly incompetent, corrupt enemy command and very weak artillery/MLRS capability.
 
Top