The War in the Ukraine

foxmulder

Junior Member
Do you know where that quote comes from? People abuse this quote by Moltke a lot. To use Moltke (of all people) to defend Russia's performance is what I consider to be "shocking ignorance."

Moltke didn't mean fall back to a battle of attrition whenever your plan fails. He trained his Officer Corps for exactly the opposite. His goal was to adjust to a fluid situation without getting bogged down in a battle of attrition. But doing this requires a lot of initiative in the field (something the Russian command structure lacks), highly trained officers and great logistics. The results of this is what Moltke's General Staff demonstrated in the War of 1870, which unlike Russia's war in Ukraine, was not a war of attrition. It was a stunning victory at very quick speed, against a larger opponent. He wrecked the French so badly, the entire world was like 'WTF.' No one expected it.

Compare that to Russia in Ukraine. It's basically the exact opposite. Case in point:



Moltke (whose quote you used) had Paris surrounded in 2 Months, and he was fighting a larger country, when his own side wasn't even a unified country yet.

Russia, on the other hand, launched in February. We're in late August, and Kiev still stands after a failed attempt at encirclement. So yea... "results speak for themselves." If/When Russia wins this war (and everyone still expects them to win in attrition) they will definitely not be getting any "style points." This is yet another cautionary tale of how not to execute a war.

You *assume* Russia wanted to have Kiev city. You assume wrong. They wanted to have a regime change which failed. however, I assure you places where Russia takes... they are "forever" Russia now.
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
Russia and Ukraine are not "equals." On every metric, Russia is supposed to be superior to Ukraine. Plus, you replied to a post in which the 1870 War was being cited, so you already have an example of an actual peer war which was executed quickly and elegantly (and that's not the only example.)

As for the Mongols vs China, how are you possibly comparing China to Ukraine? The Mongols going up against China was a nomadic group going up against one of the strongest and largest superpowers on the planet. That's definitely not the case here. Russia is supposed to be the superpower here. Ukraine isn't even close to being one. Also, this analogy is simply unfair to the Mongols, considering their operational brilliance in the rest of Eurasia.
Russia is not fighting Ukraine alone. If they were, Ukraine would have suited for peace in March. In fact they did and the U.S. and Britain blocked it. Their commanders, many are from the West. The U.S. controls many levers of power for the Ukrainian military and government. It is as if Ukraine is the body and the U.S. is moving this body (barely) behind the scenes. Just as we said that the U.S. was fighting North Vietnam. By any measure, North Vietnam was very far from being an equal to the U.S. but we lost the war. Everyone knows that the Russians and the Chinese were behind North Vietnam. It is the only reason North Vietnam can defeat the U.S.

I agree that the Russians did not do well in this war. However, you have to consider the following.

1. The Russian economy is small. They sized their military and logistics based on what their economy can bear.
2. Due to the lack of a well developed electronics industry and large quantities of domestically produced military drones, they have mainly been using cannon shells, which while effective, requires a lot of volume.
3. In the war of attrition, they have been very careful to minimize casualties. They have plenty of time but wanted to minimize the economic and human cost of the war. The results are pretty striking. Normally, for an attack force, they are expected to have much higher casualties rates compared to a defense force well dug in for eight long years. Thus far, the numbers seems to be very lopsided the other direction. Something like 1 Russian to 5 Ukrainian. That is even considering at the beginning of the war they took heavier casualties.

They are doing as well as could be expected given all the aid and control NATO has over Ukraine. The war, strategically and tactically, the Russians have executed well given the constraints they are working under.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Someone got maps of movement of front lines over the last month?

Things seem to have shifted to low gear after Severodonesk.
It clearly looks like they are building logistics behind the frontlines for a long winter and not rushing in the vast open area farther west where they would have no cover and long supplies lines. I could see them taking Soledar and Bakhmut firmly before the end of fall and wait there for river and conscript to freeze.

Don't know for the Kherson front tho, will they do a move there before winter? It look like they have settled in and exchanging artillery without any moves in the past two months... Cargo ships are going out and Snake Island was given back to Ukraine, it was still an unsinkable battleship. Sure that Snake Island can be levelled from both sides and can be seen as a no man lands tho...
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Someone got maps of movement of front lines over the last month?

Things seem to have shifted to low gear after Severodonesk.

On the contrary, if you follow the mappers in YouTube, things have heated up and the Russians opening new fronts at Kharkiv and Donetsk. You got fighting all along an enormous 500 kilometer front line.


If you can get past his corny jokes like him calling Vaschyna "Vagina":
 

jvodan

Junior Member
Registered Member
Someone got maps of movement of front lines over the last month?

Things seem to have shifted to low gear after Severodonesk.
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The miltaryland maps seem to be from Ukrainian sources so there is a lag on events.

Once nice feature of the militartland map is the inclusion of NASA fire data

The Defence Politics Asia you tube chanel has a link to a map which is more based on Russian sources, I think you can also see a historic perspective on it as well. His corny humour on the actual DPA you tube channel is quite painful
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
I got it second hand from Alex Mercouris and Brian Berletic of the New Atlas. You can find both on their youtube channels.
So from a cursory search of both of those people and their youtube channels, I did not see anywhere where they claimed 8 HIMARS was destroyed, could you point me to a specific video? Because I'm seeing these claims repeated over and over in this thread and I just don't see a source for it.
 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
An episode of the work of the Ukrainian drone Bayraktar Mini made in Turkey. The drone is carrying out reconnaissance and is trying to aim Ukrainian artillery at one of the Russian armored vehicles, the quality of the video does not allow us to discern its type. The armored vehicle was not hit by Ukrainian artillery strikes



Published footage of the strike of the Russian self-propelled guns 2S9 "Nona-S" on the Ukrainian gun. The target coordinates were obtained from the Orlan-10 UAV, the type of the destroyed weapon is difficult to discern due to the low quality of the video.

 

alfreddango

Junior Member
Registered Member
do you guys think that nato might be building up a case for intervention with regards to zaporizhzhia nuclear plant?
western media are talking about this stuff 24/7 as if whetting the general population's appetite for it
 

Stealthflanker

Senior Member
Registered Member
do you guys think that nato might be building up a case for intervention with regards to zaporizhzhia nuclear plant?
western media are talking about this stuff 24/7 as if whetting the general population's appetite for it

It's Ukrainian that shelling the plant instead of Russians. The best intervention would be tell them to stop touching the plant and apparently nuclear waste storage facility nearby and shell somewhere else. It's not like Ukrainian running out of targets anyway.
 

RottenPanzer

Junior Member
Registered Member
Daily Russian MoD report:

Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine ⚡ ️ (19.08.2022)

◽ The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue a special military operation in Ukraine.

As a result of the offensive actions of the allied forces in the Kharkiv region, on August 14, 2022, units of the 58th motorized Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were defeated near the village of Udy. Under the onslaught of Russian troops, the remnants of the formation escaped from their positions and left this locality. To prevent panic and intimidate the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nationalists of the armed group "Kraken" demonstratively shot 100 soldiers of the 58th motorized infantry brigade who left their positions.

High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces hit " points of temporary deployment of units of nationalist formations "Azov" in the area of Nikolaevka and" Aidar " in the area of Soledar of the Donetsk People's Republic. More than 50 nationalists were destroyed, as well as 12 pieces of military equipment. A warehouse of weapons and military equipment of the 65th mechanized brigade was hit by a high-precision strike near the village of Dorozhnyanka, Zaporizhia region. More than 15 armored and automobile vehicles were destroyed.

As a result of a concentrated fire strike on the positions of the 14th mechanized brigade in the area of the settlement of Stary Saltov, Kharkiv region, the enemy's irretrievable and sanitary losses amounted to more than 100 people.

Strikes by operational-tactical and army aircraft, rocket troops and artillery against military facilities on the territory of Ukraine continue. During the day, six control points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were hit, including the 115th mechanized brigade in the area of the settlement of Artemovsk of the Donetsk People's Republic, as well as manpower and military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 247 districts. Four destroyedwarehouses of rocket and artillery weapons and ammunition in the areas of the settlements of Kurakhovo and Dachnoye in the Donetsk People's Republic, Belaya Krynitsa in the Kherson region and Zaliman in the Kharkiv region, as well as a US-made M777 howitzer near the settlement of Primorskoye in the Zaporozhye region.

As part of the counter-battery struggle, two "SMERCH" multiple rocket launcher platoons were suppressed in the Vasyukovka districts of the Donetsk People's Republic and Orekhov in the Zaporozhye region, and a platoon of self-propelled artillery units "Gvozdika" in the Dzerzhinsk area. Also hit: two platoons of multiple rocket launchers "Grad" in the areas of settlements Mayaki and Soledar, two platoons of guns "Hyacinth-B", as well as three platoons of howitzers D-30 in firing positions in the areas of settlements Kodema, Yakovlevka, Maryinka Donetsk People's Republic, Novoaleksandrovka Kherson region and Dobroe Mykolaiv region.

Russian air defense forces shot down 13 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in the areas of the settlements of Chervonyi Shakhter, Malye Prokhody, Kamenka, Dolhenke, Sukha Kamenka, Novoosinovo, Krakhmalnoye in Kharkiv region and Lyubomirovka in Mykolaiv region. In addition, a Tochka-U ballistic missile was intercepted near the village of Yubileynoye, 12 shells of the Hymars multiple launch rocket system were intercepted near Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region. two multiple launch rocket system projectiles near the settlements of Topolskoye and Suligovka, Kharkiv region, as well as two US-made anti-radar missiles near the settlements of Alchevsk and Stakhanov, Luhansk People's Republic.

Total destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation: 267 aircraft, 148 helicopters, 1,770 unmanned aerial vehicles, 366 anti-aircraft missile systems, 4,347 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 807 multiple launch rocket systems, 3,315 field artillery and mortar guns, and 4,958 units of special military vehicles.
 
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