The usage of conscripts will lead to more deaths. Simply because these guys have very little training which will lead to accidents, confused communications, blue on blue shootings, poor discipline, low morale etc. They also won’t know how to use advanced equipments which will lead to more deaths and injuries. Once they come face to face with Russian firepower they will fold or die en masse. These territorial defense forces should be in reserve doing rear guard work. Or sent to the major cities like Odessa, Kharkov etc because urban warfare is easier for the defender. Instead they are sending them to the frontline to get annihilated. This talk of a big counteroffensive in August or the fall is not going to happen. Once the Donbas is finished I expect Russia to take mor territory at a rapid pace. Soon the majority of the UAF will be filled with Territorial Defense conscripts.
The War in the Ukraine
- Thread starter SampanViking
- Start date
What appears to be a destroyed Kiev regime T-72 donated by Poland
For the first time Russia attacks a dam. Up till now Russia left dams alone which also serves as bridges. I guess the HIMARS delivery changed Russia's calculus. From now on dams are targets even if millions of Ukrainian civilians drown.
For the first time Russia attacks a dam. Up till now Russia left dams alone which also serves as bridges. I guess the HIMARS delivery changed Russia's calculus. From now on dams are targets even if millions of Ukrainian civilians drown.
I do have to ask how they come up with those numbers. Could be an overestimate?
French media published one of the last conversations between Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin, held on February 20, 2022, or four days before the invasion began. In this phone conversation, Macron proposes to the Russian president a meeting "in the next few days" in Geneva with Joe Biden. This meeting will never take place.
Automatic translation from French:
The verbatim
Emmanuel Macron:
Since our last conversation tensions have been growing and you know my commitment and determination to continue the dialogue. I would like you to give me first your reading of the situation and perhaps in a rather direct way, as we both do, tell me what your intentions are. And then I wanted to try to see if there were still useful actions to be taken and make some proposals to you.
Vladimir Putin:
What can I say? You can see for yourself what is going on. You and Chancellor Scholz told me that Zelensky was ready to make a move, that he had prepared a bill to implement the Minsk agreements in fact our dear colleague, Mr. Zelensky, is doing nothing. He is lying to you! I don't know if you heard his statement yesterday where he said that Ukraine must have access to nuclear weapons.
I also heard your comments at the press conference in Kiev on 8 February. You said that the Minsk agreements need to be revised, and I quote, "to make them workable".
Emmanuel Macron:
Vladimir, first of all one thing, I never said that the Minsk agreements should be revised. I never said that either in Berlin, Kiev or Paris. I said that they should be applied, that things should be respected and I do not have the same interpretation of the last few days as you do.
Vladimir Putin:
Look, Emmanuel, I don't understand your problem with the separatists. At least they have done everything necessary, at our insistence, to open a constructive dialogue with the Ukrainian authorities.
Emmanuel Macron:
Regarding what you said, Vladimir, several remarks: first, the Minsk agreements are a dialogue with you, you are absolutely right. In that context, the basis for the discussion is not a text submitted by the separatists. And so when your negotiator tries to impose on the Ukrainians to discuss on the basis of roadmaps of the separatists, he is not respecting the Minsk agreements. It is not separatists who will make proposals on Ukrainian laws!
Vladimir Putin:
Of course we have a completely different reading of the situation. During our last meeting, I reminded you and even read articles 9, 11 and 12 of the Minsk agreements.
Emmanuel Macron:
I have them in front of me! It is clearly written that the government of Ukraine - paragraph 9 etc - proposes, and that it is in consultation and agreement with the representatives of certain districts of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, within the framework of the tripartite contact group. This is exactly what is being proposed. So I don't know where your lawyer learned the law (a councillor smiles). I just look at the texts and try to apply them! And I don't know which lawyer can tell you that in a sovereign country, the laws are proposed by separatist groups and not by the democratically elected authorities.
Vladimir Putin:
(firm and annoyed tone) This is not a democratically elected government. They came to power in a coup, people were burnt alive, it was a bloodbath and Zelensky is one of the people responsible.
Listen to me: the principle of dialogue is to take into account the interests of the other side. The proposals exist, the separatists, as you call them, have passed them on to the Ukrainians, but they have not received any response. Where is the dialogue?
Emmanuel Macron:
But because, as I just told you, we don't care about the separatists' proposals. What we are asking them to do is to react to the Ukrainian texts and we have to do things in that direction because that is the law! What you have just said casts doubt on your own willingness to respect the Minsk agreements if you consider that you are facing non-legitimate and terrorist authorities.
Vladimir Putin:
(still very annoyed) Listen to me carefully. Can you hear me? I repeat, the separatists, as you call them, have reacted to the proposals of the Ukrainian authorities. They responded but the same authorities did not follow up.
Emmanuel Macron:
So okay: on the basis of their response to the Ukrainian texts, what I propose to you is that we demand from all the parties a meeting within the framework of the contact group to continue to move forward. We can ask for this work to be done tomorrow and demand that all the parties involved do not adopt an empty chair policy. But over the last two days the separatists have not wanted to take part in this discussion. I am going to demand this of Zelensky. Do we agree on this? If we agree, I will launch it and demand a meeting tomorrow.
Vladimir Putin:
So to be clear, as soon as we hang up, I will study these proposals. But from the beginning we should have put pressure on the Ukrainians but nobody wanted to do that.
Emmanuel Macron:
But if I do my utmost to push them, you know that.
Vladimir Putin:
I know, but unfortunately it is not effective.
Emmanuel Macron:
I need you to help me a bit (mischievously). The situation on the contact line is very tense. I really called yesterday for Zelensky to calm down. I'm going to tell him again, to calm everyone down, to calm down in the social networks, to calm down the Ukrainian armed forces. But what I see also, you can really call to calm your pre-positioned armed forces. There was a lot of bombing yesterday. If you want to give dialogue a chance, you have to calm down the game in the region. How do you see the military exercises developing?
Vladimir Putin:
The exercises are going according to plan.
Emmanuel Macron:
So they end tonight, right?
Vladimir Putin:
Yes, probably tonight and we will certainly leave a military presence on the border until the situation in the Donbass has calmed down. The discussion will be taken in consultation with the Ministries of Defence and Foreign Affairs.
Emmanuel Macron:
All right. Vladimir, I say to you very sincerely, for me to put the discussions back into the right framework and avoid tensions is an absolute prerequisite. And what is important to me, and I am really asking you to do this, is that we control the situation. That is the first pillar. And I'm counting on you a lot. Don't give in to any provocation in the hours and days to come.
I wanted to make two concrete proposals to you. The first is to organise a meeting in the next few days in Geneva between you and President Biden. I spoke to him on Friday evening, I asked him if I could make this proposal to you. He told me to tell you that he was ready. President Biden has also been thinking about ways to de-escalate the situation in a credible way, to take into account your demands and to address very clearly the issue of NATO and Ukraine. Tell me the date that suits you.
Vladimir Putin:
Thank you very much Immanuel. It is always a great pleasure and a great honour to talk to your European counterparts as well as to the United States. And I always enjoy talking to you because we have a relationship of trust. So Emmanuel, I propose that we reverse the situation. First of all, you have to prepare this meeting beforehand. It's only afterwards that we can talk because if we come here like this, to talk about everything and nothing, we'll be reproached again.
Emmanuel Macron:
But can we say today, at the end of these discussions, that we agree on the principle? I would like a clear answer from you on this. I understand your reticence about a date, but are you ready to go ahead and say today "I want a meeting between two people with the Americans, then extended to the Europeans" or not?
Vladimir Putin:
It's a proposal that deserves to be taken into account and if you want us to be well aligned on how to formulate it, I suggest you ask our advisers to call each other to agree, but know that on the principle, I agree.
Emmanuel Macron:
Very well, you confirm that you agree on the principle. I propose that our teams [...] try to finalise a joint text, a kind of communiqué at the end of this call.
Vladimir Putin:
To make no secret of it, I wanted to go and play ice hockey because I am talking to you from the gym before I start physical exercises. I will call my advisors first.
Emmanuel Macron:
Thank you in any case Vladimir. We stay in touch in real time. As soon as there is something, you call me.
Vladimir Putin:
Thank you Mr. President (in French).
Automatic translation from French:
The verbatim
Emmanuel Macron:
Since our last conversation tensions have been growing and you know my commitment and determination to continue the dialogue. I would like you to give me first your reading of the situation and perhaps in a rather direct way, as we both do, tell me what your intentions are. And then I wanted to try to see if there were still useful actions to be taken and make some proposals to you.
Vladimir Putin:
What can I say? You can see for yourself what is going on. You and Chancellor Scholz told me that Zelensky was ready to make a move, that he had prepared a bill to implement the Minsk agreements in fact our dear colleague, Mr. Zelensky, is doing nothing. He is lying to you! I don't know if you heard his statement yesterday where he said that Ukraine must have access to nuclear weapons.
I also heard your comments at the press conference in Kiev on 8 February. You said that the Minsk agreements need to be revised, and I quote, "to make them workable".
Emmanuel Macron:
Vladimir, first of all one thing, I never said that the Minsk agreements should be revised. I never said that either in Berlin, Kiev or Paris. I said that they should be applied, that things should be respected and I do not have the same interpretation of the last few days as you do.
Vladimir Putin:
Look, Emmanuel, I don't understand your problem with the separatists. At least they have done everything necessary, at our insistence, to open a constructive dialogue with the Ukrainian authorities.
Emmanuel Macron:
Regarding what you said, Vladimir, several remarks: first, the Minsk agreements are a dialogue with you, you are absolutely right. In that context, the basis for the discussion is not a text submitted by the separatists. And so when your negotiator tries to impose on the Ukrainians to discuss on the basis of roadmaps of the separatists, he is not respecting the Minsk agreements. It is not separatists who will make proposals on Ukrainian laws!
Vladimir Putin:
Of course we have a completely different reading of the situation. During our last meeting, I reminded you and even read articles 9, 11 and 12 of the Minsk agreements.
Emmanuel Macron:
I have them in front of me! It is clearly written that the government of Ukraine - paragraph 9 etc - proposes, and that it is in consultation and agreement with the representatives of certain districts of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, within the framework of the tripartite contact group. This is exactly what is being proposed. So I don't know where your lawyer learned the law (a councillor smiles). I just look at the texts and try to apply them! And I don't know which lawyer can tell you that in a sovereign country, the laws are proposed by separatist groups and not by the democratically elected authorities.
Vladimir Putin:
(firm and annoyed tone) This is not a democratically elected government. They came to power in a coup, people were burnt alive, it was a bloodbath and Zelensky is one of the people responsible.
Listen to me: the principle of dialogue is to take into account the interests of the other side. The proposals exist, the separatists, as you call them, have passed them on to the Ukrainians, but they have not received any response. Where is the dialogue?
Emmanuel Macron:
But because, as I just told you, we don't care about the separatists' proposals. What we are asking them to do is to react to the Ukrainian texts and we have to do things in that direction because that is the law! What you have just said casts doubt on your own willingness to respect the Minsk agreements if you consider that you are facing non-legitimate and terrorist authorities.
Vladimir Putin:
(still very annoyed) Listen to me carefully. Can you hear me? I repeat, the separatists, as you call them, have reacted to the proposals of the Ukrainian authorities. They responded but the same authorities did not follow up.
Emmanuel Macron:
So okay: on the basis of their response to the Ukrainian texts, what I propose to you is that we demand from all the parties a meeting within the framework of the contact group to continue to move forward. We can ask for this work to be done tomorrow and demand that all the parties involved do not adopt an empty chair policy. But over the last two days the separatists have not wanted to take part in this discussion. I am going to demand this of Zelensky. Do we agree on this? If we agree, I will launch it and demand a meeting tomorrow.
Vladimir Putin:
So to be clear, as soon as we hang up, I will study these proposals. But from the beginning we should have put pressure on the Ukrainians but nobody wanted to do that.
Emmanuel Macron:
But if I do my utmost to push them, you know that.
Vladimir Putin:
I know, but unfortunately it is not effective.
Emmanuel Macron:
I need you to help me a bit (mischievously). The situation on the contact line is very tense. I really called yesterday for Zelensky to calm down. I'm going to tell him again, to calm everyone down, to calm down in the social networks, to calm down the Ukrainian armed forces. But what I see also, you can really call to calm your pre-positioned armed forces. There was a lot of bombing yesterday. If you want to give dialogue a chance, you have to calm down the game in the region. How do you see the military exercises developing?
Vladimir Putin:
The exercises are going according to plan.
Emmanuel Macron:
So they end tonight, right?
Vladimir Putin:
Yes, probably tonight and we will certainly leave a military presence on the border until the situation in the Donbass has calmed down. The discussion will be taken in consultation with the Ministries of Defence and Foreign Affairs.
Emmanuel Macron:
All right. Vladimir, I say to you very sincerely, for me to put the discussions back into the right framework and avoid tensions is an absolute prerequisite. And what is important to me, and I am really asking you to do this, is that we control the situation. That is the first pillar. And I'm counting on you a lot. Don't give in to any provocation in the hours and days to come.
I wanted to make two concrete proposals to you. The first is to organise a meeting in the next few days in Geneva between you and President Biden. I spoke to him on Friday evening, I asked him if I could make this proposal to you. He told me to tell you that he was ready. President Biden has also been thinking about ways to de-escalate the situation in a credible way, to take into account your demands and to address very clearly the issue of NATO and Ukraine. Tell me the date that suits you.
Vladimir Putin:
Thank you very much Immanuel. It is always a great pleasure and a great honour to talk to your European counterparts as well as to the United States. And I always enjoy talking to you because we have a relationship of trust. So Emmanuel, I propose that we reverse the situation. First of all, you have to prepare this meeting beforehand. It's only afterwards that we can talk because if we come here like this, to talk about everything and nothing, we'll be reproached again.
Emmanuel Macron:
But can we say today, at the end of these discussions, that we agree on the principle? I would like a clear answer from you on this. I understand your reticence about a date, but are you ready to go ahead and say today "I want a meeting between two people with the Americans, then extended to the Europeans" or not?
Vladimir Putin:
It's a proposal that deserves to be taken into account and if you want us to be well aligned on how to formulate it, I suggest you ask our advisers to call each other to agree, but know that on the principle, I agree.
Emmanuel Macron:
Very well, you confirm that you agree on the principle. I propose that our teams [...] try to finalise a joint text, a kind of communiqué at the end of this call.
Vladimir Putin:
To make no secret of it, I wanted to go and play ice hockey because I am talking to you from the gym before I start physical exercises. I will call my advisors first.
Emmanuel Macron:
Thank you in any case Vladimir. We stay in touch in real time. As soon as there is something, you call me.
Vladimir Putin:
Thank you Mr. President (in French).
This is retarded. Macron considers the rulers of the Lugansk and Donetsk Oblasts to be the ones the Ukrainian government appointed. When the capitals of the Oblasts themselves, and the largest fragment of their population, were under the separatists control. Who does he think the Minsk accords were signed between? It was between the Ukraine government and those he calls the separatists. Russia was just one of the moderators together with France and Germany. And the votes of the people in the regions controlled by the separatists were never taken into account for the election of those so called rulers of the Oblasts on the Ukrainian side either. Macron seems to have been operating in a different reality. Macron is also telling Putin to talk with a lawyer when Putin has a law degree and a PhD in economics. Macron is a frickin idiot. He was basically trolling Putin. And Putin is basically showing them who has the real power in this situation. They pushed him into it, but they are going to find out things don't go their way soon enough.
And as we can see Zelensky's little provocation at the security summit claiming Ukraine would get nuclear weapons was a clear factor in Putin's calculations to go in.
And as we can see Zelensky's little provocation at the security summit claiming Ukraine would get nuclear weapons was a clear factor in Putin's calculations to go in.
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This sounds like Macron was aware of Ukraine's plan to attack Donbass and was trying to provide cover for it. What he is saying is effectively torpedoing the Minsk Agreement.
No idea why he would release this, it doesn't paint him in a good light at all. It just vindicates Putin's decision to attack.
What was the point of suggesting a meeting with Biden? There was a reason why America was excluded from the original negotiations.
My thoughts exactly. It just reinforces the fact that Europe relies on the US to make their foreign policy decisions with Macron telling Putin that he has already gotten the permission from Biden to book a meeting.
This transcript really shows how powerless Macron was.
He warned Putin not to react to provocations. He KNEW Ukraine was was going to attack.
It seems the US will supply Patriot PAC 3 and / or THAAD to the Kiev regime. If they do, I think Russia will use Su-57 to hit them with anti radar missiles. Su-57 has very low RCS and practically impossible to lock on from a long distance away.
Macron doesn't remember Minsk agreement. That was signed by the previous France president.
Macron doesn't remember Minsk agreement. That was signed by the previous France president.