A few musings over the final course of the conflict and its longer term consequences
I don't think the Russian goal is annexation of all Ukraine, its only a landgrab to get the separatist provinces.It’s always shallow and nonsensical to try to add a price tag to geopolitical issues, especially ones considered to be of potentially existential level security concerns.
To suggest Russia has no interest in taking the western Ukrainian provinces because they are poor and of limited economic worth is just the flip side of the Reddit level arguments that China only cares about Taiwan because of its economic value.
The only time in modern military history where a major power has committed itself fully to a war and not finished the job is during the Korean War, where both sides ground each other into an unbreakable stalemate.
There is currently zero prospects of the Ukrainian military achieving the same feat against the Russians, and the west has already thrown even its sanctions kitchen sink at Russia, so just why would Russia just suddenly stop all by itself?
This self delusional wishful thinking about Russia just stopping instead of taking all the marbles when they are up for grabs is the true cause of endless western ‘intelligence’ obsessions about Russia running out of war supplies from shells to missiles to men to tanks. There is no real indication that Russia is running out of anything it needs for the war effort, but the desire for such copium reports are so strong that of course you are going to get people stepping up and providing intelligence assessments to say just that when there is so much to be gained from doing so personally and basically no downside to being wrong.
Sure, there will be an insurgency issue after the war, but that’s a problem for after the war. And as I have said before, I think Russia will change how it conducts itself during the latter phases of the war, once they are deep in hostile territory, that will probably vastly mitigate this potential insurgency threat while also massively increasing the costs for NATO and the EU.
Basically, expect them to take the gloves off when the Ukrainian military holes up in population centres in areas that are overwhelmingly anti-Russian. They will do so consistently and maybe even deliberately by trapping Ukrainian military forces in population centres to give them the pretext needed to bomb and shell those population centres off the map. Drive all the hostile population progressively west and out of Ukrainian and the insurgency problem basically solves itself.
MLRS doesn't turn under normal circumstances, which this clearly isn't. Most MRLS rockets have fins that pop out for longitudinal stability. Theoretically, all it takes is a bit a mishandling and a fin can be jammed so it doesn't extend or bent so it sits at an angle to the airflow, causing it to veer off like this. It's been seen before.Well MLRS rocket doesnt turn. It can only be from a missile system and its definitely SAM's.
Also the missile did hit ground if you see the explosion and following smoke.
Russia already has a border with NATO, which is set to expand (once Finland joins). Also, Belarus will likely be assimilited into the Russia proper sooner rather than later, which would once again expand the border.I don't think the Russian goal is annexation of all Ukraine, its only a landgrab to get the separatist provinces.
Honestly, it makes far more sense for the Eastern bloc to allow a landlocked and pathetic NATO aligned "west-Ukraine" under the Zelensky regime or his successors to exist, because such a state would exist on useless territory but be a black hole for EU resources. Ukraine was flooded with weapons, and when the conflict is over, said weapons will flow into whichever bloc that owns the remnants of west Ukraine.
If Russia annexes the whole Ukraine, there will be popular resistance, a border with NATO, high amount of illegal arms inside Russian borders. If Russia allows NATO to create their Ukrainian puppet but neuters it militarily and land locks it, the weapons will flow back into the EU underground and become the problem of the West, rather than the East.
Legends reemerging after some time. They've surely already reserved their place in the books as one of the best in the history of modern warfare.
Amusing they aren’t posted here anymore compared to a couple month ago. “Fair Analysis.”
I wonder what is next after the Donbas region is cleaned up. Karkhiv or zaporizhzhia is probably next on the list
That’s highly possible. Given the fact that Ukrainian High Command finally gave the order to withdraw, rear guards to protect the withdrawing forces are of the upmost importance since the retreat can easily fall into chaos and be taken advantage of by the Russians if not done properly.Should they be throwing more units (especially armored) into that area? Maybe they are going to act as a rearguard for the withdrawal.
"While the Ukrainians suffered heavy losses in their defense of Sieverodonetsk, this may ultimately have been enough to at least continue to wear down the Russian invasion force and to inflict further attrition here."