The War in the Ukraine

generalmeng said:

I thought the territory loss was because Russia didn't have sufficient man power and they decided to do a strategic withdrawal.

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One reason for the lack of manpower was that the contracts expired and the soldiers were rotated back home.
The US had a similar issue in Afghanistan, but then they issued a stop loss order. The existing contracts were extended indefinitely while the war lasted. Well that never happened here. The Russians thought, wrongly, that the Istanbul talks would lead to a settlement and went with a de facto cease fire and partial withdrawal. Some nationalists in Russia like Girkin expected a full mobilization after the invasion started. Well that did not happen.

Nightsky said:

Dumb artillery shells won't get them that far in a world of drones - and here Ukraine already is superior. And unless China is willing to chime in on the Russian side with drone stuff, I think Russia will face trouble.

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You still need munitions. Most of those suicide drones have regular munitions strapped to them. The laser guided Krasnopol is also still effective. Much harder to intercept than a drone. It is not true that artillery stopped being useful.
The talk that Ukraine is superior in drones is also just that, talk, even the Ukrainians themselves state the Russians are outproducing them in drones numerically. The Russians also have come out with some of their own drone technology, be it the Orlan, Supercam S350, Lancet, or now the fiber optic guided suicide drones. Whatever Ukraine has, thus far Russia has more of it.

Nightsky said:

They volunteer (well, basically they do it for the money), so there is no mobilisation in force of this age bracket.

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These are mobilized, not volunteers.

well. Dumb artillery shells won't get them that far in a world of drones - and here Ukraine already is superior. And unless China is willing to chime in on the Russian side with drone stuff, I think Russia will face trouble.

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Actually, laser guided Krasnopols are used all the time. They are so accurate they can hit right into a dugout, where so often Ukrainian UAV operators operate. Krasnopols are often used to target hideouts and shelters of drone operators, as well as fortifications, firing points, camping sites, command posts, bridges and ammunition depots. Not to mention tanks, artillery pieces, SPGs, trucks, and AFVs, sometimes even when moving. From the videos, they hit on the first strike. Krasnopols are complemented by a 120mm and 122mm variant, the Kitolovs. This means everything from Soviet era artillery to modern ones can use laser guided munitions. And on top of that, every 120mm mortar, including self propelled ones like the Nonas.

To make this happen, the Russians have winged drones like the Orlans and Garnets that lases targets at a height where MANPADS doesn't reach, and are too high to be seen or heard. These drones also penetrate deep enough that they also spot targets and provide target coordinates for Iskander, air to surface missile, FAB and MLRS strikes.

The Russians also have Gerans and Lancets. The Lancet has practically decimated Ukrainian artillery, while Gerans have forced Ukrainian air defenses away from the front and tied them to protecting cities. This allowed the Russians to use glide bombs at will, while Gerans do a job on Ukraine's logistics centers, power supplies and repair depots. The Ukrainians already claimed the Russians outnumber them in drones as much as five to one, but while I'm not sure about the numbers, one thing that's apparent is that Ukraine's drones look like the products of a cottage industry, whereas Russian drones and UAVs are made by a mature and sophisticated national scale MIC behind them.

Nightsky said:

Technically the same thing Zelensky claims for Ukraine. So technically one country would need to cease to exist in order to align these visions. Not a nice prospect.

In contrast to many observers, though, I think Russia will loose this war, a country with the BIP of Italy BEFORE sanctions cannot beat the whole western hemisphere on the long run, so time is rather working for Ukraine in my opinion.

The ceasefire is a poisoned offer, though, since Zelensky primarily will use it to arm and recruit and have another go. People claiming he wants peace are ill advised.

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The Ukrainians has already lost two to three generations of men, and they will run out of 18 to 24 years olds long before the Russians run out of their war fighting potential. The Ukrainian economy is already crashing from the demographics. A huge part of the population has moved out from the country, and another part of the population, they are the ones that you're fighting against, since they are the Donbass and the Luhansk, and are now considered Russians.

To support Ukraine, someone has to pay it. Unfortunately, G7 countries have way higher Debt to GDP ratios, and are Welfare states, not Warfare states. A Welfare state is one centric to social welfare, whereas a Warfare state is a war centric economy which the Russians are currently in. Welfare state cannot transition to a Warfare state without suffering considerable disruption and political upheaval.

On top of that, Europe has lost access to cheap steel and energy to build these weapons, which comes from Russia ironically. Russia also provides the nitrates for explosives, and like China has already banned the export of antimony and tungsten that's used for making shells. I'm not an expert of explosives but I heard Ukrainians are forced to use some kind of TNT light substitute whereas the Russians continue to improve their formulations, giving them literally better bang for the buck, and that reflects on the artillery to the munitions carried by drones. I heard that the Ukrainians already suffered a crisis in the quality of mortar shells.

Nightsky said:

well. Dumb artillery shells won't get them that far in a world of drones - and here Ukraine already is superior. And unless China is willing to chime in on the Russian side with drone stuff, I think Russia will face trouble.

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Based in which fact?
It is totally the opposite, Russia is far superior in drones, manufacturing in mass Lancets, creating fiber optic drones. You can check the numbers, Russia is ahead of Ukraine in literally all drone domains.

As it is logical, a country without electricity, that can be strike at each place when Russia wants will never be equal to a country fully functional.

Ukraine literally just produces open source shitty drones, sometimes with a shitty autopilot from companies like Auterion. Then receive some number of ISR drones from European Union countries that are nothing special, you can check the companies, deltaquad or quantum system. Nothing special

gelgoog said:

Russia is strong in hard stats, it as simple as that. While the entire combined West could in theory out produce it, only now are we seeing Europe increase its expenditure, after three whole years. While Russia started rearming much sooner. And Europe's rearmament will be for naught, since it is a waste to spend money on conventional forces to fight a nuclear armed Russia or China.

Much like I said before, Russia's army could fight the combined French and UK armies and win. It is as simple as that. While NATO has more of everything on paper, you will have to marshal those disparate resources, against a unified Russia.

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It is amazing how people is not able to assume this pure fact.

Even in a economic point of view. The trade balance of Russia is constantly around 150 billion dollars. The trade balance of the full EU is also around that (indeed lower in last years).

This mean that Russia produces as much money as the full EU. And taking into consideration that the EU sell manufactured products, the EU needs a lot of people working to produce that.

Russia has far more free reign to burn money in the military if they want.

The GDP, where internal money transformation are counted is irrelevant to measure ability to spend extra money. The EU will cannibalize itself if they need to increase defense production

It is really absurd that people cannot understand this fact. The third Reich commanded far more industrial power and scientific power than current EU. The Soviet Union in the 30s was weaker than current Russia due to the post civil war.

The third Reich lost, because strategically Europe has no resources and simply cannot outproduce Russia in nothing that Russia put its attention to produce.

Nightsky said:

In contrast to many observers, though, I think Russia will loose this war, a country with the BIP of Italy BEFORE sanctions cannot beat the whole western hemisphere on the long run, so time is rather working for Ukraine in my opinion.

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For the nth time. GDP means nothing.
For GDP calculation things like debt are added (instead of subtracted), for GDP things like the toll in the road is added, for GDP private health insurance is added.
A country with public services has automatically a GDP lower that one that is privatized. A country with a lot of population in debt has a lot of GDP because you add to the GDP 2 times the same quantity of money, one for the expenditure and one for the repayment of debt.

It is pure counting magic. Nothing real behind it. And that without enter in that what your GDP is invested in counts a lot (if it comes from industry, or from services).
Also without counting that the valuation of the currency matters.

People like you seems to think that if you put Switzerland and North Korea as neighbors and they have a war, Switzerland would win the war because it has many times the GDP of NK.
When it is obvious that NK would mop their floor with Switzerland.

Economic data that matters:
Russia trade balance is the same that EU trade balance, ergo Russia produces as much real money as the EU each year
Russia debt is 25% against around 100% for almost all EU big countries
Russia MIC has 4 million workers against 0.5 of the EU
Russian cost are irrelevant because all their supply chains are internal. EU supply chain imply paying money to random countries that want their piece (for example Australia, Canada or the same Russia), then pay the logistic to come to Europe, then pay European salaries (far bigger than Russia but population arguably less competent based in results in math or physic Olympiads)

Wherever you look economic data favors Russia.

Moreover, Russia and the EU and US are not the only actors in this war. Each euro the EU invest in Ukraine is one euro does not invest in its much needed modernization .
This imply that EU will continue losing markets to China all around the world, this imply that the trade balance and economic power of EU will decline, making the previous situation worse.

Russia does not have such problem since their export are petrol, metals and things like that that will always be needed.

To think that time is in the EU or US time is a colossal mistake, because is totally the opposite. Each month of this war China is rising. Have this war for 5 years and Europe will not sell even one car outside of Europe. That is why you see Russia so calm. And Europeans so hysteric

Nightsky said:

When I am a Russian bot on one forum and a NATO bot on the other it seems to be quite alright.

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I doubt anyone is calling you "Russian bot" other than yourself. Every argument you just made it just same points you can read on any Ukraine flag emoji twitter account down to a t and its kind of silly when even pro-Ukraine media has whinned about Russian artillery and drone superiority over Ukraine or the lack of industrial european capacity even with stuff as basic as cotton for gunpowder for artillery rounds, with the euros complaining about how reliant they were on China for it.

Yet here you are arguing that the opposite is true.

Nightsky said:

Technically the same thing Zelensky claims for Ukraine. So technically one country would need to cease to exist in order to align these visions. Not a nice prospect.

In contrast to many observers, though, I think Russia will loose this war, a country with the BIP of Italy BEFORE sanctions cannot beat the whole western hemisphere on the long run, so time is rather working for Ukraine in my opinion.

The ceasefire is a poisoned offer, though, since Zelensky primarily will use it to arm and recruit and have another go. People claiming he wants peace are ill advised.

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By that logic the Qing should have crushed the British in the Opium Wars.

All the on-paper GDP and technological dominance of the west might have had some scare factor for Russia before the war, but the reality during has proven to Russia beyond all possible doubt how hollow and empty the west’s claimed economic, industrial and technological dominance is.

The Russian economy has taken a hit, but ordinary Russians are not out on the streets rioting and looting. Can’t say the same for the west.

The Russian industry has taken to war economy mode fairly well and is out-producing the whole of NATO in arms and munitions.

Even on the battlefield, the invulnerability myth of one western weapon system after another has been shattered to the point the Ukrainians need to baby and hide their newest western kit, while the Russian response to seeing such unicorns on the battlefield is basically gleeful eagerness to engage and claim such rare kills.

There has been huge behind the scenes support, both technical and Financial from China, but Russia still had to do the work itself, and it is showing itself to be living up to Russia’s historic reputation.

Yes, Russia cannot take on all of NATO directly on the battlefield and win conventionally, but it doesn’t have to. Because the lion share of NATO’s industrial and combat capabilities are from the Americans, yet the Americans are increasingly looking for backup from the rest of NATO and beyond to even think about starting on China. So if it really gets to the point where the big boys need to make their own grand entrances to the battlefield, it still doesn’t look good for Team America.

Russian units using FPV drones "VT-40" showed the pursuit and attack of a drone on the Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer "Caesar". The video was filmed on the Rodinskoye-Pokrovsk highway in Donbass. The self-propelled howitzer "Caesar" came close to the front line and was immediately detected. The 155-mm wheeled self-propelled howitzer "Caesar" has been produced in France by Nexter since 2002. The firing range of the self-propelled howitzer is up to 55 km. As a result of the attack by the Russian FPV drone, the Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer "Caesar" was destroyed by fire.

Bonjour, a VT-40 drone takes out a French CAESAR SPG. Courtesy of the Sudoplatov.


KVN drone flies over the Road of Death. Vehicles: Pvb 302, Bushmaster, BMP-1, M1A1 Abrams, two Russian T-80BVM destroyed on trawls early in the Kursk campaign.


Baba Yagas getting intercepted by VT-40 drones in the Kharkhiv region.


Pzh2000 SPG gets taken out by an X-51 Lancet in the Svatovo-Pokrosvkoye direction by Group South.


Fiberoptic drone hits an M101 howitzer on the barrel in the Kursk region.


Fire observed in Liman after a strike.


Explosions in Kharkhiv.


UAV launch and temporary deployment points of the AFU 141st Brigade gets hit by a FAB-500 in Shevchenko in the Vremevsky direction.


FPV drone hits a Maxxpro in Burlatskoye in the Vremevsky direction.


T-80BVM of Group South providing fire support during an assault.


D-30 howitzers of Group West at work.


Agriculture remote miner at work in the Pokrovsk direction. A Ukrainian counterattack fell to it's minefield and lost several vehicles.


Bieber bridge layer captured in Sudja.


Destroyed Bogdana SPG in the Kursk region with US and Indian made shells.


Captured and abandoned M777 with a large supply of 155mm shells.


Rare Ukrainian ex-Russian T-90A tank succumbed to two FPV drones towards Konstantinovka. Tank was captured from the Russians in the first year of the war.


M119 howitzer taken out by an M46 130mm field gun of the 238th in a artillery vs artillery duel.

plawolf said:

By that logic the Qing should have crushed the British in the Opium Wars.

All the on-paper GDP and technological dominance of the west might have had some scare factor for Russia before the war, but the reality during has proven to Russia beyond all possible doubt how hollow and empty the west’s claimed economic, industrial and technological dominance is.

The Russian economy has taken a hit, but ordinary Russians are not out on the streets rioting and looting. Can’t say the same for the west.

The Russian industry has taken to war economy mode fairly well and is out-producing the whole of NATO in arms and munitions.

Even on the battlefield, the invulnerability myth of one western weapon system after another has been shattered to the point the Ukrainians need to baby and hide their newest western kit, while the Russian response to seeing such unicorns on the battlefield is basically gleeful eagerness to engage and claim such rare kills.

There has been huge behind the scenes support, both technical and Financial from China, but Russia still had to do the work itself, and it is showing itself to be living up to Russia’s historic reputation.

Yes, Russia cannot take on all of NATO directly on the battlefield and win conventionally, but it doesn’t have to. Because the lion share of NATO’s industrial and combat capabilities are from the Americans, yet the Americans are increasingly looking for backup from the rest of NATO and beyond to even think about starting on China. So if it really gets to the point where the big boys need to make their own grand entrances to the battlefield, it still doesn’t look good for Team America.

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Qing face the issue, the Manchu were the minority. If Qing industrialized, then Han would benefit more. Qing intentionally kept the elite as Manchu, which became very corrupt by the 1800s.

Qing didn't see defeat and losing Han land as losing, because their objective was to stay in power and rule from the North.