The War in the Ukraine

Nightsky said:

Technically the same thing Zelensky claims for Ukraine. So technically one country would need to cease to exist in order to align these visions. Not a nice prospect.

In contrast to many observers, though, I think Russia will loose this war, a country with the BIP of Italy BEFORE sanctions cannot beat the whole western hemisphere on the long run, so time is rather working for Ukraine in my opinion.

The ceasefire is a poisoned offer, though, since Zelensky primarily will use it to arm and recruit and have another go. People claiming he wants peace are ill advised.

Click to expand...

At the start of the war, I also thought the disparity between economy size should let NATO easily win, thus inevitably forcing China to step in and balance it out.

But 3 years in, Russia has grown from an Italy sized economy to the 4th largest in the world, while EU is not only shrinking, but has failed to supply even a fraction of what Russia can make to Ukraine.

We have underrated the health of the rapidly growing Russian economy while overrating how much EU is capable of. There is as of today too few Ukrainians remaining for Europe to win, unless NATO sends its own troops.

Russia is strong in hard stats, it as simple as that. While the entire combined West could in theory out produce it, only now are we seeing Europe increase its expenditure, after three whole years. While Russia started rearming much sooner. And Europe's rearmament will be for naught, since it is a waste to spend money on conventional forces to fight a nuclear armed Russia or China.

Much like I said before, Russia's army could fight the combined French and UK armies and win. It is as simple as that. While NATO has more of everything on paper, you will have to marshal those disparate resources, against a unified Russia.

Rare close-up footage of a Russian FAB-3000 bomb hitting the Kursk region of Russia. The video was filmed by a Ukrainian drone. The FAB-3000 bomb was dropped by a Russian Su-34 aircraft at a temporary deployment point of the Ukrainian army in one of the villages. The size of the bomb and the installed UMPK module are clearly visible. Technical information about the FAB-3000 bomb is in the link to the video in the comments to the video.

gelgoog said:

You can also bet that if Russia started losing, China would act, either they would reinforce Russia, or they would invade the Russian Far East to prevent Western control over it. By getting access to those resources, China would become self-sufficient in terms of oil, gas, and coal.

Click to expand...

and risk getting nuke?

Much more likely scenario is sending military equipment and munitions.

gelgoog said:

Russia already stated before multiple times that they will not accept a ceasefire until their terms are accepted first. You know, demilitarization, neutralization, and de-nazification of Ukraine, plus later the annexation of all four oblasts (Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk, Donetsk) in full plus Crimea which they already held. We will see if the Russians remain consistent in this position.

Knowing the Russians the more you delay the deal, the worse the deal you will get. Just ask Finland which lost most of Karelia.

Trump and his men seems to think they can just freeze the conflict in the current lines. But the thing is Putin changed the Russian constitution via a referendum before 2022. Russia is not allowed constitutionally to cede territory in any way. According to Russian law, after the referendums in the regions, those four oblasts in their entirety are now part of the Russian Federation and that is final.

The Russians already pulled out their troops from around Kiev partly as a goodwill gesture after the Istanbul talks. Fat load it did for the Russians, with Ukraine claiming they kicked out the Russian forces all by their own power, and episodes like Bucha happened. The Russians were dumb enough to let the clock run out and their soldier contracts expire thinking they had a deal, which led to later actual territory losses against the AFU in the Kherson and Kharkiv oblasts.

Click to expand...

I thought the territory loss was because Russia didn't have sufficient man power and they decided to do a strategic withdrawal.

Once Ukraine collapse, it will be very easy and very fast to recapture all those territory. Seeing how Ukraine demographic is pretty much destroy, they are actually pretty close to a total collapse.

Artillery from the 238th and the 132nd working on Ukrainian positions in the Toretsk area. Shells, cluster munitions, MLRS and Krasnopols are used.


Something is burning in Odessa.


Russian forces have cleared Zaolenshenka.


Not a FAB-3000 but more likely an ODAB-500 that struck here.


Putin in military uniform is a signal. To the Russian people and to the world.


Russians vlogging from Sudja.


VT-40 drone hits a 2S22 Bogdana, causing an ammo cook-off. Wheeled SPGs are quick to produce, hence we are seeing more Bogdanas. Same reason may have motivated Russian production of Malvas.


Pushilin in Kurakhovo. He vows it will be restored.


Artillery work on AFU positions.


Flags over Sudja. The other flag besides the Russian tricolor is the flag of the Russian Airborne.


Aftermath of Iskander-M strike on the command center of the 61st Mechanized Brigade of the AFU in Khoten, Sumy.


BATT UMG APC gets hit by a Lancet and FPV near Konstantinopol. By the 6th MR Division.


Ukrainian Osa-AKM armed with R-73s instead of 9M33M3 missiles, found destroyed. The arming of Ukrainian Osas with R-73s instead of 9M33s is part of a modernization process.


M113 and another APC struck by Lancets in the Kursk region.


RPG-7 from an FPV drone found stuck on an antidrone grill, showing these grills work.


Abandoned Stryker and M113 found by the Russians in Sudja.


Putin's reply is very clever, very nuanced. It's likely media is going to distort and 'not get it' so it's better for you to hear it yourself from his own mouth.

Tam said:

Depressing. The first 18 to 24 year olds being mobilized in Ukraine.

Click to expand...

They volunteer (well, basically they do it for the money), so there is no mobilisation in force of this age bracket.

gelgoog said:

The ruble is undervalued. If you look at hard stats, Russia produces the same amount of steel than the entire US for example. It is also a major producer of aluminium and titanium, it produces more of those than the US does.
In artillery munitions, Russia produce more of those than the entire West combined.

Click to expand...

well. Dumb artillery shells won't get them that far in a world of drones - and here Ukraine already is superior. And unless China is willing to chime in on the Russian side with drone stuff, I think Russia will face trouble.

Nightsky said:

In contrast to many observers, though, I think Russia will loose this war, a country with the BIP of Italy BEFORE sanctions cannot beat the whole western hemisphere on the long run, so time is rather working for Ukraine in my opinion.

Click to expand...

Its kind of silly to keep pushing this line when GDP means little nowadays, specially with the way the west inflates their stats by including non-productive service jobs, stock market ponzi schemes and even insurance fees. The EU doesn't have the industrial capacity to compete with Russia currently, and its likely to stay that way in the future considering how much a re-industrialization effort will depend on China, which they insist on antagonizing.

So no, time is not working for Ukraine in any way or shape whatsoever unless by working you mean turning into a population-less rump state.

Nightsky said:

well. Dumb artillery shells won't get them that far in a world of drones - and here Ukraine already is superior. And unless China is willing to chime in on the Russian side with drone stuff, I think Russia will face trouble.

Click to expand...

Now I can tell you just are trolling and ragebaiting. Another sockpuppet.

Nightsky said:

Technically the same thing Zelensky claims for Ukraine. So technically one country would need to cease to exist in order to align these visions. Not a nice prospect.

In contrast to many observers, though, I think Russia will loose this war, a country with the BIP of Italy BEFORE sanctions cannot beat the whole western hemisphere on the long run, so time is rather working for Ukraine in my opinion.

The ceasefire is a poisoned offer, though, since Zelensky primarily will use it to arm and recruit and have another go. People claiming he wants peace are ill advised.

Click to expand...

War happens to be fought with men, not dollars.

sheogorath said:

Now I can tell you just are trolling and ragebaiting. Another sockpuppet.

Click to expand...

When I am a Russian bot on one forum and a NATO bot on the other it seems to be quite alright.