The War in the Ukraine

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Besides Ukrainian leadership claiming 'future russian offensive' and a possible retreat in the future (Zelensky in WP), there is a lot of panic mode about the lack of western support in the mainstream media and think tanks. This makes it seem that one day this war will end.

It appears that the area for main effort is just slow positional warfare creep (a glacial broad front advance) on the Eastern Front with the Adviika & Chasiv Yar directions being the key areas where the Russians want to expand their zone of control. They are dropping glide bombs in that direction.

The ISW claims that the Ukrainians repulsed a tank attack in the Adviika direction using 6th Tank Regiment, 90th Tank Division (Russian)

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More significantly the Russians have restarted a large scale Geran-2 & missile offensive and took down a critical hydro plant (Z-Oblast) & Thermal Power Plant (K-Oblast). So far they have been repeating Surovikin's efforts against the energy grid this month again, with large numbers of missiles & drones claimed by the Ukrainians.

It looks like they are trying to further degrade Ukrainian AA missile stockpiles (which the mainstream media claims is critically low) and prevent Ukrainian Anti-air systems from operating on the front line, freeing their fighter-bombers.

Overall it appears that in contrast to 2022-2023 Russian artillery has declined significantly to the glide bombs in operational importance. The massed bombing preparation should be a signal for the next offensive operation against Chasiv Yar.

Besides this the attacks on Ukraine's energy grid, all across the country will raise consumer prices for energy, leading to higher costs for the consumer and businesses, degrading the economy.
 

SolarWarden

Junior Member
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You are too naive. Western troops are quite likely acting as systems operators in some cases. In cases where they operate behind the lines and are unlikely to be captured this is probably happening. We know from the German audio leak that the British program the Storm Shadow missiles with the target data. The Ukrainians just fly the aircraft with the missiles and pull the trigger.

Well yeah the Brits aren't going to allow Ukraine access to upload targeting data and have these missiles hit Russia proper.
I wouldn't be surprised at all if when the F-16 enters service over Ukraine, some won't be of the publicly mentioned F-16AM type, but of a much later Block 60 variant with AESA radar, operated by NATO troops. This is exactly the same thing the Soviets did in the Korean War with the MiG-15. They just operated the aircraft behind the combat lines so no pilots would be captured if the aircraft was downed.

I would be surprised if "mercenary" viper pilots aren't flying Ukraine F-16's when F-16's make their first appearance. I don't think any Vipers with AESA will be in Ukraine but blk 52's with all the US goodies it can carry will likely be in Ukraine flown by non-Ukraine pilots.

If these F-16's don't come with Harm receiving pod, centerline EW pod and targeting pod they are going to be somewhat useless. They need to be able to take advantage of the Harms 180km range and ability to take out a radar site that has shut down.
 

Tam

Brigadier
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Inspecting captured German Marder. It is in good condition.

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Damage to bridge in Gulyaypol. This looks knocked out completely.very bad news for Ukrainian logistics in the area.

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FAB hits the bridge on Gulyaypol with great accuracy. I think it's a X-38ML instead.

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Ukrainian armored vehicle gets knocked out by a Krasnopol in Rabotino.

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Attempt by Ukrainian FPV drone to detonate an undetonated FAB-500. Failed.

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Russian air strikes on Mine no. 1 in Ugledar. Yuzhnodonbasskaya-1.

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Russian artillery hits Ukrainian positions in Huliaipilske.

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Lancet struck Ukrainian transport in Novooleksandrivka.

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Russians planted a flag in the northern part of Pervomaysky.

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Krasnopol takes out a Ukrainian D-20 howitzer in another place named Stepove in Zaporozhye.

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LMUR hits a Ukrainian temporary base.

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Ukrainian transport gets one shotted.

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Bringing back the MiG-23/27? Maybe as a strike aircraft.

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Russian drone discovers a house used as a nest by Ukrainian drone operators. A D-30 howitzer lands a shell into the house.


TOS working on Ukrainian positions in Avdeyevka sector.


Ukrainian positions hit by multiple FABs.


Ukrainian BAT-2 demining machines destroyed by Lancet. Don't need to explain the obvious significance of demining machines is for the Ukrainian military.

 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Yes yes every city/town it takes the Russians months and tens of thousands of men to gain 5-10kms is the most fortified... just like Vuhledar right? What is the excuse at Bakhmut? Russians can't seem to make any significant gains west of Bakhmut and when they try suffer heavy losses which is what is happening at Adviivka. Every time Russian forces try to push out they get hammered and stopped even as Ukraine suffers ammo shortage.
I will hand it to Ukrainians, they're fighting tooth and nail for every inch of ground. Sadly for them, they're going to get FABed, TOSed, Lanceted, and 152mm'ed out of every inch of ground. They can't keep this up forever, they'll run out of bodies eventually. It's only a matter of time.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
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Bringing back the MiG-23/27? Maybe as a strike aircraft.

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Ukraine had quite a bunch of them, don't know how bad they are presently. Probably rotten still on the tarmac. We see quite a few of them sitting around Ukrainian airbases on goggle map. Would see these mig-23 far more likely to fly than new builds. Some parts are probably available from some NATO countries.

It would be way more easy to build more mig-29 than building new mig23/27 by Russia anyway... they have some upgraded variants poised for order.
 
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Tootensky

Junior Member
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Don't know about MiG-23/27s, but I've been wondering for a while now that what Russia really needs is a reliable, low-tech, cheapo "bomb-truck", like the Il-2 during WW II. They have the Su-25, but those aren't in production anymore, and if memory serves they were built in Georgia anyway...
 

generalmeng

New Member
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Well yeah the Brits aren't going to allow Ukraine access to upload targeting data and have these missiles hit Russia proper.


I would be surprised if "mercenary" viper pilots aren't flying Ukraine F-16's when F-16's make their first appearance. I don't think any Vipers with AESA will be in Ukraine but blk 52's with all the US goodies it can carry will likely be in Ukraine flown by non-Ukraine pilots.

If these F-16's don't come with Harm receiving pod, centerline EW pod and targeting pod they are going to be somewhat useless. They need to be able to take advantage of the Harms 180km range and ability to take out a radar site that has shut down.
F-16 isn't invincible. It is just another jet. Sure, f-16 is a good jet, with good capability. The F016 will not operate in ideal environment. F-16 would not have EW support, no AWAC, f-16 need to flying low and go up shoot and run. In this environment, it lose all the competitive advantage. F-16 is an amazing dog fighter, but how often it would get to a dog fight? BVR, f-16 is as good as its bvr missiles, and Russians have equal quality bvr missiles, from a larger platform. su35/27 all can fire completive bvr missile as AMRAAM; and the flankers can carry more missiles, fly higher, have EW and AWAC support.

f-16 is just media propaganda. the west will send expired f-16, and blame it's failure on expired jets with poor maintaince. other wise, f-16 reputation will be tarnished like t-72. good luck to all future MIC sales.
 

Soldier30

Senior Member
Registered Member
Footage of Russian military personnel being delivered on an ATV to the front line. The evacuation group of the medical company of the 106th Airborne Division of Russia is attacked by a Ukrainian FPV drone, but apparently due to the influence of electronic warfare it greatly misses. Ukrainian artillery strikes are also visible. The location of the shooting and the model of the ATV were not disclosed.

 
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