The War in the Ukraine

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
When was the last time Ukraine captured any territory that's worthile?

Kherson and Kharkiv. That was the last time both armies made worthwhile captures of territories. Before that was Ukraine's assault and victory of its north and northeast region of the country. That's about it when it comes to "worthwhile."

Russians haven't captured "worthwhile" territory since the first few weeks of the war. Bakhmut and Avdiivka cost the Russians heavily over a divisions worth of men and armored vehicles combined and really haven't captured much. Vuhledar was another disaster that has cost them a divisions worth of men and armored vehicles and they haven't captured that.

You are asking the wrong question... your question should be has Russia, a supposedly "superpower" especially on land and compared to Ukraine, captured any territory that's worthwhile since they lost 50% of territory they captured in the beginning of the war.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
What % percentage of new land has Russia conquered in the last 1 year? like 0.05%? Avdivika is nothing in terms of land. if they are putting so much effort on the front line, the gains are almost negligible.

Russia needs to get more PR victories to take down Ukrainian and western morale. Only then they can achieve a quick surrender or a lack of will to fight. Destroying key strategic factories, ports or attacking highly important cities like Kiev or Lviv would have achieved that. But they are failing or not trying hard enough.

Total land area isn't as important as strategic location. Capturing Avdiivka removes Ukraine's future chance of capturing Donetsk. That's why Ukraine threw a whole bunch of brigades to defend it, all of whom were decimated and routed. Once a village, town or city is fallen it provides access to a series of roads that brings you to the next city, town and village, like nodes in a network. This is why five villages have fallen since then, with Orlivka and Tonenke the latest.

Avdiivka is also the most defended of the cities, and in fact once it was taken, the majority of the defensive lines Ukraine built since 2014 is now behind Russian lines. Look at Marinka. Once that was fallen, Heorivka, Novomikhailovka and Krasnogorovka are now under attack and two of these places are in critical situation, with strongholds around the area captured.

Key strategic factories? These have been already destroyed, including vehicle repair and maintenance facilities, factories that are building drones including the marine ones used to attack the Black Seas Fleet. Russians also struck their command centers. Russians also strike at the hotels used for foreign mercenaries and NATO advisers, and buildings used as brigade headquarters, ammo depots, barracks and hangers for vehicles . The question is, why hasn't the Ukrainians doing the same thing? Why are you bombing civilian areas of cities instead of vehicle repair facilities? The Russians are able to restore vehicles damaged by mines, artillery and drones attacks through these facilities, while removing the ability for Ukraine to do theirs. This past week, facilities in Nikolaev got rocket struck, and these facilities include the ones used to repair Bradleys.

If Ukrainian morale is so great, why has millions left the country? Why do recruiters have to kidnap people?

Western morale is bad that countries have either stopped aid (Poland, Slovakia) or reducing it (Germany, UK), while pending packages are subjected to intense debate (USA). Why is Macron going nuts? Countries have started to reduce aid after it was evident the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed.

Taking land isn't the main objective. The objective is to draw out the Ukrainian reserves, spot and throw artillery, bombs and rockets at their concentrations and destroy them at leisure. As such, many of the Russian offensives look to me like trolling attempts to lure out Ukrainian counteroffensives then hit their reserves in the back while remote mining their supply routes.
 
Last edited:

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Total land area isn't as important as strategic location. Capturing Avdiivka removes Ukraine's future chance of capturing Donetsk. That's why Ukraine threw a whole bunch of brigades to defend it, all of whom were decimated and routed. Once a village, town or city is fallen it provides access to a series of roads that brings you to the next city, town and village, like nodes in a network. This is why five villages have fallen since then, with Orlivka and Tonenke the latest.

Avdiivka is also the most defended of the cities, and in fact once it was taken, the majority of the defensive lines Ukraine built since 2014 is now behind Russian lines. Look at Marinka. Once that was fallen, Heorivka, Novomikhailovka and Krasnogorovka are now under attack and two of these places are in critical situation, with strongholds around the area captured.

Key strategic factories? These have been already destroyed, including vehicle repair and maintenance facilities, factories that are building drones including the marine ones used to attack the Black Seas Fleet. Russians also struck their command centers. Russians also strike at the hotels used for foreign mercenaries and NATO advisers, and buildings used as brigade headquarters, ammo depots, barracks and hangers for vehicles . The question is, why hasn't the Ukrainians doing the same thing? Why are you bombing civilian areas of cities instead of vehicle repair facilities? The Russians are able to restore vehicles damaged by mines, artillery and drones attacks through these facilities, while removing the ability for Ukraine to do theirs. This past week, facilities in Nikolaev got rocket struck, and these facilities include the ones used to repair Bradleys.

If Ukrainian morale is so great, why has millions left the country? Why do recruiters have to kidnap people?

Western morale is bad that countries have either stopped aid (Poland, Slovakia) or reducing it (Germany, UK), while pending packages are subjected to intense debate (USA). Why is Macron going nuts? Countries have started to reduce aid after it was evident the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed.

Taking land isn't the main objective. The objective is to draw out the Ukrainian reserves, spot and throw artillery, bombs and rockets at their concentrations and destroy them at leisure. As such, many of the Russian offensives look to me like trolling attempts to lure out Ukrainian counteroffensives then hit their reserves in the back while remote mining their supply routes.
From Mao

"Keep men, lose land; land can be taken again. Keep land, lose men; land and men are both lost"
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Why Russia fails so badly when it comes to striking Ukranian valuable targets with Missiles or Drones? When was the last time we saw Russia destroying anything as valuable and impactful as attacking Kerch bridge, or Russian airfields in Crimea or Russian naval ships. Even recent Russian refinary attacks were so important.

Ukraine manages to attack Russia so easily but Russia hasn't done any attack worthy of headlines.
You sounds like playing a video game in which life is just a bunch of pixels no different from a bunker or tank. In real life the most valuable assets of a country and the only thing that matters to its future is its population.

How long did it take to have the bridge re-opened? How long are you going to grow a new born child to fight?

The first and foremost measure to win a war has always been prioritizing to kill the able-bodies over taking land or destroying materials (only prioritize them if they help the first objective). By killing the able-bodies there won't be soilders to operate weapons, workers to manufacture weapons, farmer to feed the soldiers.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Burning Ukrainian Strela-10 looks like a victim of a Krasnopol strike while Orlan looks on. Every AD system taken out means space for UAVs to roam.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

A Ukrainian 2S1 Gvozdika SPG gets taken out with a 152mm shell in Zaporozhye.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Ukrainian transport with personnel taken out with artillery in one shot near the Belgorod region border.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Kiev gets hit by drone raid despite air force commander claiming they shot every drone down. What is reported to be a communication facility is destroyed.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Pickup used by Ukrainian military used for transport gets hit by Krasnopol or Kitolov (120mm/122mm version of Krasnopol).

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

You can see from the faces of these unwounded Ukrainian soldiers that they are suffering from intense psychological trauma. Even if those FABs don't kill or wound you, they will leave a mark in your mind. This is sad.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Mi-28NM takes out Ukrainian vehicles with Vikhrs. Ka-52s and Mi-28s have reversed their roles now that once exclusive missile systems, the LMUR and the Vikhr, are now shared.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Tank from the 255th Regiment takes successive FPV drone hits like a boss.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is Zelensky outrightly saying to Europe you suck in shell deliveries.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Ukraine still shelling Belgorod. Horrible scene where a civilian car is hit.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Another indication Ukraine is suffering immense casualties. NATO committee chairman calling for a draft to replace the dead and wounded.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Russian Strela-10 takes out Puma RQ-20 UAV.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Tonenke appears to have fallen to Russian hands after Orlivka.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Ukrainian L39 training jet gets destroyed by a Lancet strike.


Ukrainian BM-21 Grad gets taken out by a Lancet strike.


First scene is an ATGM strike on a Ukrainian vehicle possibly a tank, followed by a FAB-1500 or ODAB-1500 on the Krasnogorovka industrial facility. Comment says FAB but I suspect it to be an ODAB.


Comparing that last explosion to the ODAB-1500 hit on the Kraken deployment center last week.

 
Last edited:

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
A single FAB 3000 bomb on the centerline hardpoint ??? If it can carry a kh-41 there, the carry capacity is possible but will it fit with wings kit. Diameter is a bit bigger too 0,85m fab-3000 vs 0,8m for kh-41???
Same 3 as with 1500s.

Su-34 technically has 5 equal, 3000 kg, heavy duty pylons, though only 3 were seen used with heavy loads at the same time in the past.

And the big suspicion is that 3000-class ones are actually capable of somewhat more, due to some previous paper studies.
 
Last edited:

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
How many targets are hardened enough that 3 x 1 ton bombs would be insufficient ? Hard to see much use of this especially if only the Tu-22 can carry it.
3000s aren't about hardening, more about volume(larger fortified buildings). Neither fab-1500 nor fab-3000 are penetrators, fab-1500-2500 is.

Though they will indeed be able to shut down most simple forms of fortification, unless it is a honest reinforced concrete bunker.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
A single FAB 3000 bomb on the centerline hardpoint ??? If it can carry a kh-41 there, the carry capacity is possible but will it fit with wings kit. Diameter is a bit bigger too 0,85m fab-3000 vs 0,8m for kh-41???

They will probably mount it with the wing kit at the bottom, in which case the wing kit may protrude below the nacelles, and won’t be limited by their width.
 

Gloire_bb

Captain
Registered Member
They will probably mount it with the wing kit at the bottom, in which case the wing kit may protrude below the nacelles, and won’t be limited by their width.
FAB-3000 is 600-something in caliber, i.e. we at least have the same ~0.5m or more for wing chord. That's enough I think.
 
Top