The War in the Ukraine

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
The patriot were known to be active as recently as yesterday since there's footage of it intercepting targets over Kyiv, if anything was even hit it's most likely just a launcher which can be quickly replaced.


If you read a few pages back, I mentioned that there simply isn't enough information to draw useful conclusion from the patriot intercept, since we do not know what was fired at it. If it dumped 30 missiles and actually shot down multiple ballistic missiles then PLARF will need to take this into consideration that even patriots are capable of ABM work rather than just THAAD. Remember that PLA has specific target sets that are guaranteed to be under dense AA umbrella, not infrastructure that may or may not be very spread out and unprotected.

In terms of storm shadows we have already seen them penetrate the front lines a few times despite only being in use for a few weeks, I'll wait and see rather than draw hasty conclusions as they bring range and warhead size that himars can't be exactly compared with.

This comment chain should be in the lessons from Ukraine thread if it wasn't closed down.
a few things we know for sure:

1.
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is far less mobile than
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, requiring 45 minutes of setup time vs. 5 minutes.

But after just a few weeks, the Ukrainians were already able to independently set up and operate the system against a simulated threat in under 45 minutes, which is the U.S. Army’s standard. They complete this “culminating event” two or three times a day to get in as much practice as possible before heading back to Europe, according to one U.S. trainer.

S-300 PS deployment time is five minutes. A typical battery S-300 PS group would include one 5P85S TEL, two 5P85D TEL/Transloaders, and one mobile 5N63S Flap Lid B radar.
But this can also be ascertained just by looking at the 2 systems. Left is S-300 which is still on tracks, right is Patriot which requires mechanical stabilization and fixing.

1920px-9S32_engagement_radar_-2.jpg
Airday-Nordholz_2013_by-RaBoe_106.jpg


2.
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and
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.

The AN/MPQ-53/65 Radar Set is a
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radar equipped with
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, electronic counter-countermeasure (ECCM), and
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(TVM) guidance subsystems. The AN/MPQ-53 Radar Set supports PAC-2 units, while the AN/MPQ-65 Radar Set supports PAC-2 and PAC-3 units. The main difference between these two radars is the addition of a second
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(TWT), which gives the −65 radar increased search, detection, and tracking capability. The radar antenna array consists of over 5,000 elements that "deflect" the radar beam many times per second.

The S-300PT had a
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radar and had the ability to engage multiple targets with a single
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. Since the original system was semi-mobile, it took over one hour to set it up for firing, and the missile
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system could scorch the
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(TEL).
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3. Patriot only got 360 degree coverage in the latest versions introduced in 2017, while S-300 has had 360 coverage for a long time.

In 2017, the AN/MPQ-65 radar was upgraded with active electronically scanned array (AESA) solid-state gallium nitride (GaN) transmitters in place of conventional traveling-wave tubes with a
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. The new radar has been redesignated AN/MPQ-65A.
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It includes a bolt-on replacement antenna array and two smaller rear panel arrays which provide 360-degree coverage.

Two search and acquisition radars were introduced to support the S-300PT, both with 360-degree coverage.

So it doesn't seem like Patriots are actually better.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
a few things we know for sure:

1.
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is far less mobile than
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, requiring 45 minutes of setup time vs. 5 minutes.




But this can also be ascertained just by looking at the 2 systems. Left is S-300 which is still on tracks, right is Patriot which requires mechanical stabilization and fixing.

1920px-9S32_engagement_radar_-2.jpg
Airday-Nordholz_2013_by-RaBoe_106.jpg


2.
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and
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.





3. Patriot only got 360 degree coverage in the latest versions introduced in 2017, while S-300 has had 360 coverage for a long time.





So it doesn't seem like Patriots are actually better.
I feel like we are speaking past each other since I'm not referring to whether s-300 is better than patriot at all. I'm referring to the valuable data the PLA is getting regarding the effectiveness of US air defenses against ballistic missiles.

Edit:
To not waste thread space and as a counter point to the patriot damage it could just be as a result of large number of missiles being fired from a protected firing position moving tons of dirt around, see similar rocket burn marks from MLRS launches.
 
Last edited:

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I feel like we are speaking past each other since I'm not referring to whether s-300 is better than patriot at all. I'm referring to the valuable data the PLA is getting regarding the effectiveness of US air defenses against ballistic missiles.

Edit:
To not waste thread space and as a counter point to the patriot damage it could just be as a result of large number of missiles being fired from a protected firing position moving tons of dirt around, see similar rocket burn marks from MLRS launches.
I think you originally wanted to say that Patriots can intercept ballistic missiles better than S-300.

These is what you said:
Most of those infrastructure strikes happened before Western AA systems is in Ukraine in numbers, so you cannot use it to estimate the effectiveness of Western GBAD based on limited data points. S-300 against shaheds and cruise missiles should be something that the PLA already have plenty of data of and as we know s-300 should have no hope against something like Kinzhal.

So you believe that S-300 can be defeated easily by Kinzhal. Yet Patriot has neither better mobility nor a generationally superior radar which means it has neither a decisive advantage in survivability nor in interception. I didn't compare kinematics but from the sources the kinematics are also comparable.

This is an important question though: why does it seem like Patriots are intercepting more if Patriots aren't actually better?

1. Sample bias: more reporting is done on Patriots rather than S-300s.

2. Ammo limitations: Ukrainians need to conserve S-300 ammo because they can't get more easily so even if they can detect a threat they may hesitate to make a move, but they know they'll get Patriots for free.
 

MixedReality

Junior Member
Registered Member
Whatever is said by Putin or Karensky is to be taken with a bowl of salt. Talking about Karensky, did he return to Ukraine or he's still travelling arround?

Putin and Russian MoD confirmed they hit Ukrainian Military Intelligence headquarters.

That’s why Ukrainian drones retaliated by hitting Moscow.
 

tankphobia

Senior Member
Registered Member
I think you originally wanted to say that Patriots can intercept ballistic missiles better than S-300.

These is what you said:


So you believe that S-300 can be defeated easily by Kinzhal. Yet Patriot has neither better mobility nor a generationally superior radar which means it has neither a decisive advantage in survivability nor in interception. I didn't compare kinematics but from the sources the kinematics are also comparable.

This is an important question though: why does it seem like Patriots are intercepting more if Patriots aren't actually better?

1. Sample bias: more reporting is done on Patriots rather than S-300s.

2. Ammo limitations: Ukrainians need to conserve S-300 ammo because they can't get more easily so even if they can detect a threat they may hesitate to make a move, but they know they'll get Patriots for free.
Ah, I see what you mean, It was an offhand comment considering that kinzhal esq hypersonics were considered extremely difficult to intercept prior to the patriot intercept, s-300 may well be capable of the same intercept but we have not seen such announcements from either side, Russia was known to have used Kinzhals previously and none were reported to have been shot down.

It may just well be that pac-3 has better kinematics against such threats compared to whatever s-300 missiles Ukraine has left in stock which is not necessarily optimised against ballistic threats, I don't think differences in radar should be important since ballistic missiles, especially hypersonics aren't stealthy, so kinematics of the missile would be very important to achieve high pk.

There may also be a political angle for the Ukrainian side that s-300s will be more forward deployed compared to patriots to lower risk of lancets/capture of critical western equipment. There is a low probability for Russia to bother with a kinzhal in the front lines on tactical strikes.
 
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