The War in the Ukraine

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Is it really all that different? They are still going to the DPR controlled land and It’s not like the “evacuated” injured will be let free after their medical treatment is done.
From Russian perspective, if 50 wondered men are going to DPR and you call it "surrender" while the rest continues resistance people are going to call your use of the word "surrender" fake news again, even though it's still quite correct.

But on the other hand if all defenders come out of Azovstal then by any reasonable definition that's a surrender.

What's more important now is to watch how Kiev and western media sugar coat it now. If Azovstal is completely taken and the defenders are in DPR hands it's really hard now to call it an "evacuation". Perhaps Russia will start calling it a "working holiday to Serbia to take part in potato harvest".
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Absolute annihilation at that river crossing:

FS0giw-WYAIYnjk
How accurate is this, and is this verifiable from other sources? That is some amazing quality photos or are they photoshopped from other places?
 

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
They need more troops for sure. At the same time, if there's no bridge left on the Dnieper, it will be quite easy to guard the east of the country against attack from the west. It's a huge river and beside artillery and aircrafts going above it, no direct attack can be done. Only link to the west that need to be kept are the ones in Kherson.
"金角银边草肚皮" is the first principle of Chinese Go. It basically translates "Triangle is golden. Line is silver. Belly is crap". It perfectly applies here. If the Russians cannot take Odessa or Kharkov in the next few months while holding onto what they have got so far, the party would be over and a stalemate would be the name of the game. I do think it is much harder to crack Kharkov. In other words, if Ukraine cannot defend Kharkov after so many weeks of borrowed time, US/NATO would not have any credibility left for even brainwashing. I do think the Russians would be stopped at Kharkov.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
It's going to cost tens of billions to rebuild Mariupol. I have no doubt Russia can take Odessa, Myukolaiv, Kharkov or any city in the east of Ukraine using the same tactics. Is it worth it though? For Odessa it may be as it would cut Ukraine off from the coast, and allow the Russian navy to come back, and allow a link up with Transnistria. But otherwise Russia would want to capture these cities with as little damage as possible.

Odessa is a historical city with a lot of very old buildings. To Russians it would be like razing a city like Florence to the ground.

Option 1 is a possibility. Although Ukraine is already effectively landlocked as nothing is coming in or out of the ports they still hold. Taking the coast would deprive Ukraine of the use of coastal anti-ship missiles.

Option 2, Russia is quite far from Dniepro for a central push. Pushng up the bank of a river when you don't control the other side is probably too risky.
ukraine_physical_map.gif


Looking at physical map of Ukraine (below for reference) the river turns towards Russia and Donbass up to Dnipro and most of the river south of Zaphorizhzhya is already under Russian control.

In addition, it is very hard to launch attacks across the river because at the most critical point - the stretch south of Zaphorizhzhya - it is essentially an internal sea, with the river south of Zaphorizhzhya being the Kakhovka Reservoir which is 23 km across and 240 km long. Russia took control of the Kakhovka Dam on February 25, so the reservoir's water level is under Russian control.

After taking Donbass it is natural to pursue retreating UAF troops westwards who are likely to flee towards Dnipro and Zaphorizhzhya. At that point a cutoff in the wilds near the Samara River will block them and cut off those cities from reinforcement simultaneously. Taking Zaphorizhzhya means total control of the lower Dnieper. Taking Dnipro would mean that the entire southerneastern Ukraine is 100% secured, as it would also mean controlling the Samara River, another natural boundary.

The best case scenario for Russia is to push towards natural boundaries so that at each step, the Ukrainian forces can't take back their losses easily, whether that be in a counteroffensive in this war, or fighting another war in the future (if they survive).
 

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
ukraine_physical_map.gif


Looking at physical map of Ukraine (below for reference) the river turns towards Russia and Donbass up to Dnipro and most of the river south of Zaphorizhzhya is already under Russian control.

In addition, it is very hard to launch attacks across the river because at the most critical point - the stretch south of Zaphorizhzhya - it is essentially an internal sea, with the river south of Zaphorizhzhya being the Kakhovka Reservoir which is 23 km across and 240 km long. Russia took control of the Kakhovka Dam on February 25, so the reservoir's water level is under Russian control.

After taking Donbass it is natural to pursue retreating UAF troops westwards who are likely to flee towards Dnipro and Zaphorizhzhya. At that point a cutoff in the wilds near the Samara River will block them and cut off those cities from reinforcement simultaneously. Taking Zaphorizhzhya means total control of the lower Dnieper. Taking Dnipro would mean that the entire southerneastern Ukraine is 100% secured, as it would also mean controlling the Samara River, another natural boundary.

The best case scenario for Russia is to push towards natural boundaries so that at each step, the Ukrainian forces can't take back their losses easily, whether that be in a counteroffensive in this war, or fighting another war in the future (if they survive).
In your map, Kyyiv - Kharkiv - Dniepropelrovsk is a death triangle to my eyes. If Ukraine could not lay a trap here after so many weeks with so much US money, then I would send my worst curses to comrade Allensky.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
ukraine_physical_map.gif


Looking at physical map of Ukraine (below for reference) the river turns towards Russia and Donbass up to Dnipro and most of the river south of Zaphorizhzhya is already under Russian control.

In addition, it is very hard to launch attacks across the river because at the most critical point - the stretch south of Zaphorizhzhya - it is essentially an internal sea, with the river south of Zaphorizhzhya being the Kakhovka Reservoir which is 23 km across and 240 km long. Russia took control of the Kakhovka Dam on February 25, so the reservoir's water level is under Russian control.

After taking Donbass it is natural to pursue retreating UAF troops westwards who are likely to flee towards Dnipro and Zaphorizhzhya. At that point a cutoff in the wilds near the Samara River will block them and cut off those cities from reinforcement simultaneously. Taking Zaphorizhzhya means total control of the lower Dnieper. Taking Dnipro would mean that the entire southerneastern Ukraine is 100% secured, as it would also mean controlling the Samara River, another natural boundary.

The best case scenario for Russia is to push towards natural boundaries so that at each step, the Ukrainian forces can't take back their losses easily, whether that be in a counteroffensive in this war, or fighting another war in the future (if they survive).

I largely agree with you..... Since Dnipro and Zaphorizhya is part of the
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, which also includes Kharkiv and Odessa. Putin has alluded to these lost Russian Empire lands in previous speeches.

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(Light green + Dark Green)


2560px-New_Russia_project.svg.png
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
In your map, Kyyiv - Kharkiv - Dniepropelrovsk is a death triangle to my eyes. If Ukraine could not lay a trap here after so many weeks with so much US money, then I would send my worst curses to comrade Allensky.
likely that is why Russian forces pulled back from the Northwest axis. Pushing into Ukraine from that direction would have been a bad decision because of the 3 mutually reinforcing logistics of those cities which could be seen by the stall near Sumy and Chernihiv.

But there is no such mutual reinforcement in the southwest OR southeast. However, the southeast has the advantage of securing natural boundaries while in the southwest, Odessa has no natural boundaries protecting it.
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
I largely agree with you..... Since Dnipro and Zaphorizhya is part of the
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, which also includes Kharkiv and Odessa. Putin has alluded to these lost Russian Empire lands in previous speeches.

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(Light green + Dark Green)


2560px-New_Russia_project.svg.png
Managing to take back these land would be the bare minimum to not loss face ?
 

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
From Russian perspective, if 50 wondered men are going to DPR and you call it "surrender" while the rest continues resistance people are going to call your use of the word "surrender" fake news again, even though it's still quite correct.

But on the other hand if all defenders come out of Azovstal then by any reasonable definition that's a surrender.

What's more important now is to watch how Kiev and western media sugar coat it now. If Azovstal is completely taken and the defenders are in DPR hands it's really hard now to call it an "evacuation". Perhaps Russia will start calling it a "working holiday to Serbia to take part in potato harvest".
They won't be able to hide the fact it's a surrender however they sugarcoat it.

What's worse is that they are going directly into the custody of DPR. You can bet that part of the negotiations would be to surrender into the custody of Russia, and the fact it seems to have been refused is big. Russian soldiers are a professional army and are largely indifferent and not personally affected by what's been going on in the region.

The DPR are the same people they've been terrorising for 8 years. DPR forces have been known to torture Ukrainian soldiers they capture. Actual Azov nazis, well lets just say they won't be received very well. I wouldn't be surprised if a few of those buses go missing along the way.

Anyway, we'll soon find out if there was any truth to those rumours of NATO soldiers, or if it was all just Russian propaganda.
 

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
I largely agree with you..... Since Dnipro and Zaphorizhya is part of the
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, which also includes Kharkiv and Odessa. Putin has alluded to these lost Russian Empire lands in previous speeches.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
(Light green + Dark Green)


2560px-New_Russia_project.svg.png
Pretty map. If Putin could hold onto that, he would have won the war hands down, period. But I am willing to bet against it under the assumptions:

(1) Russia keeps its current troops level in Ukraine.
(2) US keeps feeding Ukraine.
(3) China does not provide military support.
 
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