The Kashmir conflict 2025.

Neurosmith

Junior Member
Registered Member
I commend the J10/PL15. That is good news. But the fact that so many Indian missiles got through is not good. Which is why I am wondering whether the HQ-9 was deployed in the region. Maybe not in sufficient quantities?
your thoughts are exactly 100% same as mines. Some people said it is not enough HQ9 units. I dont know but I am concerned.

Several years ago India did a test shot on Pak using Brahmos without the explosive warhead. It went through the defense layer and hit some rural area.

I watched on youtube titled "Israel Strikes Iran | Iran's Air Defence Systems Intercept Israeli Strikes"

The missile interceptions sounded like firecrackers. They have an impressive defense system.
When missile like SCALP follows terrain, engagement cycle is short, and missile frequently masks behind foliage etc. Some of this "foliage"(high raises) you really don't want to hit by accident, unless you don't care about your own population.

It's a hard engagement to process, especially if you don't have very high mast for your FC radar. There are of course ways to raise it, but more than a few of them turn SAM into sitting duck, as you can't evacuate them fast (not necessary, but additional features as usual cost money).
If there's many of them doing penetration more or less simultaneously, chances to leak are very high.

Furthermore, HQ-9 until last Zhuhai (which doesn't mean deployment even in PLA, yet) simply didn't have a smaller interceptor(not that what they shown is really small, but at least it isn't SRBM under cover).

This means huge exploitable dead zone (over two miles), not that many interceptors available, and huge collateral concerns (if you want to check what 180kg warhead does when it accidentally hits residential highrise - check Ukraine).

Best way to counter - relatively short range missiles with moderate warhead. But since attacker choses flight paths - every such point needs quite a few interceptors, and you may need a lot of them
You are over-complicating what is essentially a numbers problem. Pakistan is rumored to have two HQ-9 batteries and just seven HQ-16 systems. It is quite likely that the number of Indian missiles outnumbered the number of HQ-9 interceptors.

Moreover, we don't know if the Indian missiles that hit their targets are the result of overwhelming numbers, the occasional slip-through that is common to every air defense system, or something that Pakistan simply chose to ignore since it was heading towards a non-critical target.
 

neutralobserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
You are over-complicating what is essentially a numbers problem. Pakistan is rumored to have two HQ-9 batteries and just seven HQ-16 systems. It is quite likely that the number of Indian missiles outnumbered the number of HQ-9 interceptors.

Moreover, we don't know if the Indian missiles that hit their targets are the result of overwhelming numbers, the occasional slip-through that is common to every air defense system, or something that Pakistan simply chose to ignore since it was heading towards a non-critical target.
Correct - Pakistan doesn't have enough batteries so saturation attacks will work. This was clarified by PAF in the official ISPR press conference. The PAF AVM mentioned (video attached below) that we intercepted a lot of missile but the enemy simply spammed hundreds of missiles so some got through.

 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Their military press brief had said

They didn't say "...all pilots back home safe"

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He meant that they were home either on or under Indian soil... If he ever said they were safe, he meant that they are now in a place where no one can ever hurt them again.
The claim that "Pakistan obliterated India's communication systems" seems like an absurd lie. The missile attacks on various Pak bases seems to have caught the Pakistanis offguard. The strike on Nur Khan airbase right next to Rawalpindi was not only a massive escalation, but also an embarrassment. Rawalpindi for those who don't know is where the Pak military elite live.

I think Pak got the better of India early on but then the fight started to get equalised. India has escalation dominance and can sustain a war economically easier, which is why it made sense for Pak to sue for a ceasefire. Their hand is weaker, but they play it well.
At the same time, Pakistan is backed by China. India pays out the ass for every military asset they have from Western vendors who sell at hundreds of percentage points in profits and in the end, they don't care if these things work for India or much less if India has a military doctrine that even makes sense on the battlefield. Pakistan basically gets Chinese hardware at or even possibly below cost for China because China is truly helping them develop an effective military arm to fight against India. Pakistan will improve after this because China will ensure that they improve. India is a struggle between those who will celebrate a defeat dressed as a victory and those who will try to improve but be met with frustration both from colleagues of the former category and physical limitations to Indian options.
The big takeaway for me is that Modi is now signalling greater escalation for every next terror attack emanating from Pak. The region will get more dangerous and not less.
That's not a takeaway. That's just Modi talking like an Indian pretending that a failure was a success. He can't go on stage and say India will be more reserved and talk it out next time there's terrorist problems. I bet you India, with its new DNE limit for the IAF of some 300km away from Pakistan, will not be so quick to jump to violence next time, especially because their stocks are depleted and they need years and massive funds to replenish while Pakistan will restock almost immediately and with better/tailored weapons from China at a token price.
 
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Mt1701d

Junior Member
Registered Member
You are over-complicating what is essentially a numbers problem. Pakistan is rumored to have two HQ-9 batteries and just seven HQ-16 systems. It is quite likely that the number of Indian missiles outnumbered the number of HQ-9 interceptors.

Moreover, we don't know if the Indian missiles that hit their targets are the result of overwhelming numbers, the occasional slip-through that is common to every air defense system, or something that Pakistan simply chose to ignore since it was heading towards a non-critical target.

Correct - Pakistan doesn't have enough batteries so saturation attacks will work. This was clarified by PAF in the official ISPR press conference. The PAF AVM mentioned (video attached below) that we intercepted a lot of missile but the enemy simply spammed hundreds of missiles so some got through.

I am surprised they don’t have some form of CWIS at the bases near the border as a last line of defence in case of a saturation attack. Or do they actually have some but some incoming missiles still got through?
 

Sinnavuuty

Captain
Registered Member
Well, the complexity is a war between two great power is really difficult to assess.

I guess the first step is to take out any airbase that the jet/bomber will take off from.
The second step, as in the A2AD strategy, is to shoot down the American air vector before they even launch their ammunition. The air vector that manages to launch its loads will be intercepted by air defense systems.
 

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
well that's just wonderful. What is China going to do then when the US starts lobbing JASSMs left and right?
you seriously need to read more about China's anti-missile systems.. China have multi-layers air defense system and probably have highest density in the world.. further more HQ-9 doesn't even come in top 3 of China's top of the line SAM.

PLA SAM thread is waiting for you.
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Pakistan doesn't have enough batteries so saturation attacks will work. they only have two HQ-9 systems.. only two
 
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Gloire_bb

Major
Registered Member
You are over-complicating what is essentially a numbers problem. Pakistan is rumored to have two HQ-9 batteries and just seven HQ-16 systems. It is quite likely that the number of Indian missiles outnumbered the number of HQ-9 interceptors.

Moreover, we don't know if the Indian missiles that hit their targets are the result of overwhelming numbers, the occasional slip-through that is common to every air defense system, or something that Pakistan simply chose to ignore since it was heading towards a non-critical target.
Final destination of LACM isn't known until its terminal dive...
 

reservior dogs

Junior Member
Registered Member
I really like J8 too. Something with the design really stick with me.

Seeing how the future of BVR are going towards, and J8 does have a rather large nose cone. It would be possible to modernize them into BVR missile trucks, with a better engine, and double up the hard points, they can carry 8 PL15 each. Sit back and toss those missiles into BVR.
At the end of the day, it is all about bang for the buck. The j8s may a decade or less of their service life left. You will also have to create new electronic subsystems since the existing ones will not fit. A lot of testing will be needed. All that just for an outdated plane that will last another decade or so. This makes absolutely no sense.
 
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