Taiwan Military News, Reports, Data, etc.

maint1234

New Member
Registered Member
Well for all the mockery of the Taiwan forces here, they must be doing something right if china has not dared to take over forcibly ?
And the latest statement that "we are already independent" is as clear as one can be.
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Taiwan 'already independent,' Tsai Ing-wen warns China
AFP
TAIPEI – China must rethink its hard-line stance toward Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen said Wednesday, as she warned the island was already independent and that any invasion would be “very costly” for Beijing.
Tsai won a second term over the weekend with a record 8.2 million votes, an outcome that was seen as a forceful rebuke of China’s ongoing campaign to isolate the self-ruled island."
 

ougoah

Senior Member
Registered Member
I don't think anyone anywhere in the world expected different election results. It's same old same old for PRC-ROC relations. What has changed exactly?

Declaring independence is an official thing. Any Taiwanese elected leader can say something like we've already been independent but that's different to officially declaring the independence that the PRC is against. It would be an action that officially removes any legitimacy in the mainland government from reclaiming the island which was a part of the mainland country unit before and during the civil war. This is what the PRC warns against but even more threatening (at least in the past when the mainland was weak) was the ROC taking over the mainland. This won't be happening so everyone's focus on this issue has been a PRC invasion.

You're welcome to put a large wager with a bookmaker on that if war breaks out, but I wouldn't bank on it. If China invades and successfully occupies Taiwan, that significantly changes the military balance of power in the region. That makes things difficult for Japan, South Korea and ASEAN members like the Philippines. The US will be put in a difficult spot for sure, but it won't just automatically decide to sit it out, not least because it would be signalling to the world that China was now the dominant global power and that Washington would never defy Beijing again.

You'd need the US to have the equivalent of Jeremy Cobryn as President (a man who efffectively hates his own country and thinks that all the foreign policy decisions since 1945 were pure evil) to be sure of non-intervention.



Taiwan is already de-facto independent, so it doesn't need to declare independence. In fact, enough political statements have been made in the last 20+ years that China could easily say was a declaration of independence. If a military confrontation starts, it's likely to be because China has decided that political unification is now impossible.

As for a nuclear weapons programme, if Taiwan started that it would probably be because the US had already sold it out to Beijing.
Agreed that it is de-facto independent since the Nationalists retreated there. But then that is hardly disputed by anyone including the CCP. Let's see if Tsai comes out with statements like "we will never be a part of the mainland and continue to hold a claim of governance over the mainland". This Taiwan issue is and has always been a dispute between two opposing political groups who both claim legitimacy over the sovereignty of both the mainland and the island. Naturally the CCP enforces the One China policy which is so poorly understood in its real intentions, the CCP's strategic equivalent of Taiwan declaring "independence". The full and official kind lol.

I don't see ROC ever inheriting the mainland unless the world becomes a nuclear wasteland but by then, there is nothing to inherit and nobody to do the inheriting in Taiwan anyway. So whichever government is elected in Taiwan, they can forever forget taking back the mainland and continue to worry about mainland invasion for the rest of Taiwan's existence. Without either side giving in, there are only two possible outcomes, un/successful invasion by mainland or global nuclear armageddon after escalating war between China and the US. Given enough time, one of them is bound to happen.
 

ougoah

Senior Member
Registered Member
I hope they eventually declare independence just so both PRC and ROC can move on. PRC won't invade and certainly shouldn't. Cooler heads will prevail. Decades and centuries from now, Chinese people living on both sides of the strait will be glad and even more cooperative. Compare relations today to 50 years ago to see the contrast and the trends.

Whether the US will genuinely come to Taiwan's military aid and participate directly is hard to say. Maybe we'll see.
 

Mr T

Senior Member
This Taiwan issue is and has always been a dispute between two opposing political groups who both claim legitimacy over the sovereignty of both the mainland and the island.
That was the case when the Chinese nationalists ran a one-party state in Taiwan, but now it has evolved past that. The Taiwanese/ROC government hasn't claimed sovereignty over (mainland) China since before 1996. Even the KMT don't claim they are the rightful rulers of China anymore. The only reason the constitution hasn't been changed is because of Chinese threats of war.

I don't see ROC ever inheriting the mainland
China may change its official name in the future, but Taiwanese have no interest of running the mainland, so that's a sort of false question.

Without either side giving in, there are only two possible outcomes, un/successful invasion by mainland or global nuclear armageddon after escalating war between China and the US.
What about peaceful coexistance? Taiwan is willing, and there's no reason China can't change course other than the CCP being terrified of the domestic political consequences. Personally, I don't rule out another Zhao Ziyang type figure becoming President of China in the future and taking the military option out of the equation.
 
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vesicles

Major
Taiwan is already de-facto independent, so it doesn't need to declare independence. In fact, enough political statements have been made in the last 20+ years that China could easily say was a declaration of independence. If a military confrontation starts, it's likely to be because China has decided that political unification is now impossible.

As for a nuclear weapons programme, if Taiwan started that it would probably be because the US had already sold it out to Beijing.
Why de facto? The phrase sounds so 20th century and so lame. Why not make it official if it is already a reality?

I just laugh my butt off every time I hear this kind of talk. It just reminds me of a very often-seen scene in soap operas.

——————————-
Like this: a woman and a man sitting in a house...

Woman: honey, we’ve lived together for 10 years. Maybe we should get married?

man: oh my sweetheart, we’ve lived together happily for 10 years. You know I love you with all my heart. We live together. We eat together and we sleep together. And we have a child together. Technically we are married. Why going through all the boring ceremonies and stuff just for that one piece of paper? So lame.

woman: but but my friends and family always ask me... Why not just make it official since we love each other so much?

man: why do you always care so much about what others say? Be yourself! As long as we are happy, why do we need to care about others?

woman: oh my dear! You are such a confident man!

———————-

And at this point, most of you should’ve already guessed what will happen next... Some time later, the woman finds out that the love of her life has another family, official family with an official wife and official kids. Oh and her heart breaks... Sounds familiar?

So like the innocent woman in this so-commonly seen and heard story, you should ask your government “why de facto? Why not make it official?”
 

Mr T

Senior Member
Why de facto? The phrase sounds so 20th century and so lame. Why not make it official if it is already a reality?
Because China has threatened to invade if Taiwan formalises the status-quo in the constitution, and there's no actual reason to call China's bluff on that point. It wouldn't change anything for Taiwan and, even if China didn't invade, the increased loss of face for Beijing would make it even harder to find a long-term political solution that didn't involve Taiwan agreeing to be annexed.

Woman: honey, we’ve lived together for 10 years. Maybe we should get married?
Man: I'd love to, but my ex said she'll kill you if we get married, and I believe she'd try it.

Woman: Ok, let's get married in secret and pretend to her you're still single.
 
You're welcome to put a large wager with a bookmaker on that if war breaks out, but I wouldn't bank on it. If China invades and successfully occupies Taiwan, that significantly changes the military balance of power in the region. That makes things difficult for Japan, South Korea and ASEAN members like the Philippines. The US will be put in a difficult spot for sure, but it won't just automatically decide to sit it out, not least because it would be signalling to the world that China was now the dominant global power and that Washington would never defy Beijing again.
Somehow, I feel like you'll downplay the significance once China does regain control of Taiwan. That's the pattern with US tough talk. Before it happens, declare it can never be allowed to happen for the ground-breaking horror it would bring. After it happens, whistle and live on. The US once declared that the Philippines can never be allowed to become independent from the US, and it also declared that China can never be allowed to become a nuclear power.
You'd need the US to have the equivalent of Jeremy Cobryn as President (a man who efffectively hates his own country and thinks that all the foreign policy decisions since 1945 were pure evil) to be sure of non-intervention.
Well, such a president will guarantee the survival of his nation, because a decision to fight is a decision to initiate nuclear war-induced MAD, as China has guaranteed will happen if the US attempts to intervene for the ROC. And the US doesn't fight nuclear countries, not even North Korea.
Taiwan is already de-facto independent, so it doesn't need to declare independence. In fact, enough political statements have been made in the last 20+ years that China could easily say was a declaration of independence.
A declaration of independence is a formally signed document that effectively declares a territory a nation. The Revolutionary war wasn't fought over some people rambling of independence and presidents having oral diarrhea on public media don't amount to official policy or the US would be run on Twitter.
If a military confrontation starts, it's likely to be because China has decided that political unification is now impossible.
That's true.
As for a nuclear weapons programme, if Taiwan started that it would probably be because the US had already sold it out to Beijing.
It belongs to Beijing; you cannot sell to someone what is his even if it is currently not in his hands.
What about peaceful coexistance? Taiwan is willing, and there's no reason China can't change course other than the CCP being terrified of the domestic political consequences.
Of course they're willing! What land thief isn't willing to be given the land he's stolen?? Yeah there's a reason China can't change course; we want our property back! This statement shows a ridiculous lack of understanding.
Personally, I don't rule out another Zhao Ziyang type figure becoming President of China in the future and taking the military option out of the equation.
Were we just talking about self-hating presidents? Yeah, if any Chinese president even talks about going that way, before he makes any public announcements, his generals drag him out in the yard and give him 2 in the back of the head. Look at what happened to Zhao Ziyang; you think there will be another one? What a Western dream LOL
Because China has threatened to invade if Taiwan formalises the status-quo in the constitution, and there's no actual reason to call China's bluff on that point. It wouldn't change anything for Taiwan and, even if China didn't invade, the increased loss of face for Beijing would make it even harder to find a long-term political solution that didn't involve Taiwan agreeing to be annexed.
Because there is no such solution; return what is China's or it will be an issue until China takes it back.
Man: I'd love to, but my ex said she'll kill you if we get married, and I believe she'd try it.

Woman: Ok, let's get married in secret and pretend to her you're still single.
What the hell are you talking about? Is that how the US became a country? There is no such thing as a secret declaration of independence. A couple who secretly got married is married; a territory that "secretly" declaring independence is imagining things. Either you do it and go to war to fight for your right to be a country, or you don't have that right. You can't skip the fight and reap the rewards.
 
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Well for all the mockery of the Taiwan forces here, they must be doing something right if china has not dared to take over forcibly ?
It has very, very little to do with what they can do and very much to do with 1. the value of a territory that's on fire with all infrastructure crumbled vs. the value of that territory peacefully secured and 2. the possibility of US miscalculation leading to WWIII, which dwindles every day China becomes stronger.
And the latest statement that "we are already independent" is as clear as one can be.
It's actually not, as an official stance because presidential ramblings on social media actually don't amount to official policy, and the US is a country that will forever be grateful for that. It's clear what the current leader's personal hopes are and how she must be dealt with but as a true declaration, nothing could be more ambiguous.
 
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