Shenyang FC-31 / J-31 Fighter Demonstrator

Brumby said:

I think the evidence being asked is not in the selling of state secrets but the notion that the J-31 technology is so unique that it is not portable or if it is, it is so expensive that it is cost prohibitive.

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Air Force Brat said:

I do believe that the very large presses Nemo is talking about are rather exclusive to China and prolly another nation or two?

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wtlh said:

Hmmm, while it is certainly a good news, I am kind of less enthusiastic about it at this stage, and still think it is far too early for any certainty. The J-10 deal has been in the talks for years now, and had also been reported as "past initial enquiry stage" a long long time ago. The JF-17 programme is in full swing, and I still think PAF is more interested in the JF-17 replacing many of the legacy equipments than new more expensive fighters; and currently they seemed to be quite satisfied with JF-17.

On the other hand, I guess if costs are reasonable, FC-31 actually offer a better option than J-10. First of all, capability increase from JF-17 to J-10 won't be that dramatic, and the Pakistani F-16s still has some service life in them---if they get J-10s, then they will be used in the same roles as their F-16s. Secondly, J-10 uses a different engine family to JF-17, whereas it is clear from the beginning that the FC-31 engine is going to keep to the same lineage. Thirdly, by the time J-10 is going to enter PAF service, IF indeed it does, then we will be looking at at least 2018 or 2020 mark, but if they had instead gone with the FC-31 program and participated in---what is, still the early stages of---its designing and testing process, by the same time frame, the FC-31 would have more than likely matured and customed to their needs. Also note that J-20 is ear-marked by the PLAAF to enter service in initial batches at around about the same time frame, which means all of the subcomponents of the Chinese 5-th gen fighter program should have more or less be completed and become available around that time mark too. The Pakistani FC-31 would certainly benefit from those, and make the success of the FC-31 program look rather more likely.

I have a feeling that SAC may be willing to offer a full tech transfer and a joint production project for the FC-31 with Pakistan, and that would be the main selling point. However, given the complexity of FC-31 compared to JF-17, it may still be years down the line that tech transfer and local production may become a real possibility, especially taking into account of the political instability and economic situation Pakistan is facing at the moment. And that is where my doubts on the deal lay.

Therefore, I hold a "let's wait and see" attitude, with a hint of cautious optimism.

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tphuang said:

PAF schedule for any import of Chinese AC is more dependent on their internal finances than anything else at this point.

You are vastly over estimating the timeline of FC-31 right now, which makes your entire argument a mood point. Please think about the realistic schedule of how far this demonstrator is from going into production and a realistic schedule of engine development suitable for it.

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tphuang said:

3) To A Bar Brother, please do not attempt to turn every thread into one about Indian defense. Just because we settled on a discussion about PAK-FA a while ago here, does not mean you need to bring in Indian technology or FGFA discussion here, because this is a thread on FC-31 and we'd like to keep it that way.

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China's FC-31 could be the catalyst that makes all these international sales possible.

Think about it: Once China begins selling FC-31 stealth fighters internationally, it could spark an even wider arms race around the globe. After all, countries adjacent to countries that buy the FC-31 aren't likely to be happy knowing their neighbors own "invisible" fighter jets. They might feel compelled to buy F-35 stealth fighters of their own to counter them.

It's not hard to imagine how a sale of FC-31s to Egypt or Syria, for example, might inspire Israel to order even more F-35s for its own air force. Or how a sale of FC-31s to Pakistan or Bangladesh could turn India into an F-35 export market. And, of course, deployment of the nonexport version J-31 within China itself could boost sales of F-35s to South Korea, Japan, and Australia (all already customers), and to other Southeast Asian nations already worried about China's rising military strength.

Really, when you get right down to it, China's development of the FC-31 could be the best thing that ever happened to Lockheed Martin.

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A Bar Brother said:

Any FC-31 customer will have to wait for a new engine. The RD-93 simply doesn't cut it if SAC is looking at delivering a stealth aircraft.

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Pakistan is interested in acquiring a stealth fighter and has expressed interest in the newly unveiled Chinese FC-31. the Pakistani Dawn publication quoted Minister for Defence Production Rana Tanveer Hussain saying the matter was being discussed with Chinese authorities. According to media reports Pakistan is interested in acquiring 30-40 Shenyang FC-31s, an aircraft developed by China primarily for the export market.

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