PLAN 2nd & 3rd Aircraft Carrier wager & planning

Jeff Head · Oct 27, 2015

PanAsian said:
No one's going to see me concede the bet until all the evidence is in, even if just for a draw!

Ultimately I am curious to see how and how well CV's fit into China's grand strategy. If any Chinese carriers eventually demonstrate themselves to be white elephants or sitting ducks my assessment would still be vindicated regardless of when and how many Chinese carriers get built.

Understood about not conceding, Pan.

I would expect no less.

Despite my own confirmation on this particular carrier...I would not expect that until you are sure that it is a carrier, or until it is blatantly obvious to all, that you would concede that point.

Same is true on the 3rd carrier...which some say is already building. until you confirm that it is a carrier, or until it is blatantly obvious to all,...the issue is still open.

However, adding a new condition, like that the carriers MUST prove to be effective to your satisfaction (or anyone else's) is not a part of the wager, nor was it ever indicated to be.

TerraN_EmpirE · Oct 27, 2015

So basically we are looking for a structural feature that defines it as a full Carrier and not a LHD or the like. I suggest the Angled deck. Vtol and Heli carriers do not need angled decks as there aircraft land vertically. Well fixed wing types require the angled deck as it allows jets to arrest without interfering with launch operations.
Way I figure if we see a Angled deck, It can only be a Carrier.

Blitzo · Oct 27, 2015

TerraN_EmpirE said:
So basically we are looking for a structural feature that defines it as a full Carrier and not a LHD or the like. I suggest the Angled deck. Vtol and Heli carriers do not need angled decks as there aircraft land vertically. Well fixed wing types require the angled deck as it allows jets to arrest without interfering with launch operations.
Way I figure if we see a Angled deck, It can only be a Carrier.

Well I think it is impossible for this thing to be an LHD, due to no well deck. It could still potentially be a super sized LHA, if one wants to quibble.

The status of this ship will be fully indisputable by the time the flight deck and ski jump are finished, but as I said before, waiting for it is really just a formality, mostly for the sake of this wager now.

PanAsian · Oct 28, 2015

Jeff Head said:
Understood about not conceding, Pan.

I would expect no less.

Despite my own confirmation on this particular carrier...I would not expect that until you are sure that it is a carrier, or until it is blatantly obvious to all, that you would concede that point.

Same is true on the 3rd carrier...which some say is already building. until you confirm that it is a carrier, or until it is blatantly obvious to all,...the issue is still open.

However, adding a new condition, like that the carriers MUST prove to be effective to your satisfaction (or anyone else's) is not a part of the wager, nor was it ever indicated to be.

I am on the same page.

PanAsian · Oct 28, 2015

Bltizo said:
I just did a bit more thinking -- hypothetically speaking, the latest that this wager can be concluded could end up being in the early 2020s.

The original terms of this wager stipulates "if construction photos are shown before the deadlines for the 2nd or the 3rd carriers, that are only actually verified to be the carriers later than the deadlines, as long as they were pointed out before the deadlines, if they do turn out to be a carrier later they will count."

Assuming that the 2nd carrier is under construction as the hull in DL, then the best that the single carrier group can get is a draw, so the next thing to wait for would be the 3rd carrier... if we start getting pictures of construction (say, at JNCX) of some modules starting to get put together only in early 2020, it could take a year or two for the hull at JNCX to be confirmed as a carrier, meaning it could be 2022 or 2023 until the people in the single carrier group have to change their DPs... I wonder if SDF will still be around eight years from now.

Generous terms making it easier for the "multiple carriers" bet to win, yet perhaps a moot win by then? See it as a bet that this forum will stand the test of time!!!

Blitzo · Oct 28, 2015

PanAsian said:
Generous terms making it easier for the "multiple carriers" bet to win, yet perhaps a moot win by then? See it as a bet that this forum will stand the test of time!!!

Well, those were the original terms we all agreed to, and this part: "if construction photos are shown before the deadlines for the 2nd or the 3rd carriers, that are only actually verified to be the carriers later than the deadlines, as long as they were pointed out before the deadlines, if they do turn out to be a carrier later they will count" was obviously logical given what we were debating over originally.

Jeff Head · Feb 19, 2016

Jeff Head said:
We have had long discussions on several threads about the likelihood of the PLAN building a 2nd carrier in the near future...and then a 3rd carrier.

Our SD member PanAsian believes that the PLAN will remain content with the existing Liaoning carrier for the next ten years. And that if they do anything, it will only be a single carrier.

CONDITIONS OF THE SD 2ND/3RD PLAN CARRIER WAGER:

1) If a second carrier is not seen being built somewhere in the PRC by September 1st, 2016, then PanAsian's persuasion wins the wager hands down. If that build does occur, then the best Pan Asian can get out of the deal is a draw.

2) If a 3rd carrier begins building before June 1st 2020, PanAsian loses the wager hands down.

Any other outcome produces a draw.

RESULTS OF THE WAGER (WHAT'S AT STAKE):

If the people indicating that a 2nd/3rd carrier will not be built lose:

They post a profile picture: of multiple Chinese carriers, and keep it for a year.

If the people indicating that a 2nd/3rd carrier will be built lose:

The post a profile picture of a no circle/slash over a Chinese carrier, and keep it up for a year.

Game on.

Clearly, the first condition has been met and the 2nd carrier is building.

So proponents of the 2nd and 3rd carriers now cannot "lose".

But the 3rd carrier has not been seen and verified yet. So PanAsian has not "lost" to date either.

Just thought I would give this update.

dingyibvs · Jul 27, 2016

PanAsian said:
Despite that I am standing firm on my estimate that China will not have 3 or more carriers by 2025.

6 obviously is a pipe dream, but 3 is almost a given IMO given there'll be 2 launched within a year. You don't think China can launch another within 8 more years?

Blitzo · Jul 27, 2016

PanAsian said:
Despite that I am standing firm on my estimate that China will not have 3 or more carriers by 2025.

Define "have"?
The bet we have going is that if a 3rd carrier starts building before 2020 then you lose the bet... so if said 3rd carrier does begin construction before 2020 it is possible it may be undergoing sea trials by 2025 if not have just entered service by then -- and I'm not sure what of those potential projections would qualify as "have".

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/plan-2nd-3rd-aircraft-carrier-wager-planning.t7361/

dingyibvs said:
6 obviously is a pipe dream, but 3 is almost a given IMO given there'll be 2 launched within a year. You don't think China can launch another within 8 more years?

I assume when you mean "2 launched within a year" you mean the second carrier (i.e.: 001A) will be launched within a year, for a total of 2 carriers in the water (Liaoning and 001A) -- and not that 2 new carriers will be launched within a year (which would suggest both 001A and 002, the latter of which obviously will be years away from launch given steel is rumoured to have only begun cutting recently).

dingyibvs · Jul 27, 2016

Bltizo said:
Define "have"?
The bet we have going is that if a 3rd carrier starts building before 2020 then you lose the bet... so if said 3rd carrier does begin construction before 2020 it is possible it may be undergoing sea trials by 2025 if not have just entered service by then -- and I'm not sure what of those potential projections would qualify as "have".

https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/plan-2nd-3rd-aircraft-carrier-wager-planning.t7361/

I assume when you mean "2 launched within a year" you mean the second carrier (i.e.: 001A) will be launched within a year, for a total of 2 carriers in the water (Liaoning and 001A) -- and not that 2 new carriers will be launched within a year (which would suggest both 001A and 002, the latter of which obviously will be years away from launch given steel is rumoured to have only begun cutting recently).

Yes, I meant the 001 and 001A.

PLAN 2nd & 3rd Aircraft Carrier wager & planning

Jeff Head

General

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

PanAsian

Major

PanAsian

Major

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

Jeff Head

General

dingyibvs

Junior Member

Blitzo

Lieutenant General

dingyibvs

Junior Member