PLAN 2nd & 3rd Aircraft Carrier wager & planning

Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
We have had long discussions on several threads about the likelihood of the PLAN building a 2nd carrier in the near future...and then a 3rd carrier.

Our SD member PanAsian believes that the PLAN will remain content with the existing Liaoning carrier for the next ten years. And that if they do anything, it will only be a single carrier.

liaoning-01.jpg
PLAN Liaoning, CV-16
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Others believe that a second carrier being built is either probably imminent, or already started...and that it will be followed by a 3rd.

Some pictures of that building have already been posted...but cannot be verified to date.

2015-May-2nd-PLAN-Carrier-Construct.jpg
Current construction reported to be the 2nd PLAN Carrier, but not verified yet
​
So, after much discussion, we came up with a friendly SD wager:

CONDITIONS OF THE SD 2ND/3RD PLAN CARRIER WAGER:

1) If a second carrier is not seen being built somewhere in the PRC by September 1st, 2016, then PanAsian's persuasion wins the wager hands down. If that build does occur, then the best Pan Asian can get out of the deal is a draw.

2) If a 3rd carrier begins building before June 1st 2020, PanAsian loses the wager hands down.

Any other outcome produces a draw.

RESULTS OF THE WAGER (WHAT'S AT STAKE):

If the people indictating that a 2nd/3rd carrier will not be built lose:

They post a profile picture: of multiple Chinese carriers, and keep it for a year.

If the people indicating that a 2nd/3rd carrier will be built lose:

The post a profile picture of a no circle/slash over a Chinese carrier, and keep it up for a year.
Click to expand...

In both cases, if construction photos are shown before the deadlines for the 2nd or the 3rd carriers, that are only actually verified to be the carriers later than the deadlines, as long as they were pointed out before the deadlines, if they do turn out to be a carrier later they will count.

To date, we have three members who are signed up for PanAsian's persuasion on this:

SD Members supporting the Single Carrier thought:
PanAsian, Shenkus, TerraN_EmpirE
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We have seven SD members to date signed up for the alternate proposal of China building more carriers quicker, those being:

SD Members supporting the Multiple Carrier thought:
Blackstone, Bltizo, Jeff Head, SinoSoldier, kwaigonegin, Brumby, Delft
Click to expand...

Feel free to weigh in on which side you want to take. I will update this first post as people weigh in.

This thread will be about documenting of the buidling efforts as they go forward, or talking about the various news and other developments that tend to support one side or the other.

Game on.
 
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Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Regarding this...

PanAsian said:
Not acceptable, it's not a strategic prediction if such basic things are considered "outside factors". Anyways there is a 50/50 chance of the Chinese economy going through a dramatic spurt if the Silk Road and AIIB plans work as designed for China in which case it may "unduly" speed up any carrier program.
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I will still agree to the wager on principle because I doubt we will see any kind of drastic slow down or a major war.

But I feel like it is worth specifying that my own previous prediction of PLAN carrier developments are in a relatively benign environment and stable economic growth. Obviously if the world undergoes nuclear war or if a tsunami hits shanghai destroying JN shipyard or if a financial disaster hits china then obviously logically I would re assess any carrier predictions.
In other words, the basis of my prediction was always made on the basis of certain strategic assumptions and assumptions of no "acts of god" (natural disasters etc)

For posterity's sake I would be interested in the strategic assumptions panasian have in mind for the basis of his own prediction.

But I won't demand any caveats on assumptions of strategic environment or economic viability for the subject of this bet, out of sportsmanship. But if say a tsunami does hit JNCX or DL I'm sure we will be sensible in continuing to hold the terms of the bet or not.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
PanAsian said:
Been through this multiple times already, please read my existing posts.
Click to expand...

I'm aware that you've mentioned the possibility of economic slowdown, but nothing about how likely an actual war may be. I.e.: is your position dependent on a war likely occurring within the next two decades, no war within next two decades or what.
 
P

PanAsian

Major
Bltizo said:
I'm aware that you've mentioned the possibility of economic slowdown, but nothing about how likely an actual war may be. I.e.: is your position dependent on a war likely occurring within the next two decades, no war within next two decades or what.
Click to expand...

Short answer no war, I just talked about this on the thread where we were discussing the wager.
 
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