PLAN Aircraft Carrier programme...(Closed)

[Blitzo]

Regarding 002, some big questions which will need to be resolved, is just how big it will be, as well as how many they are looking to build, and at which shipyards. Not to mention everything else about them, from airwing size, no. of elevators, island size, and of course what kind of catapults.
Many rumours seem to describe 002 as resembling the Kitty Hawk class somewhat, in line with an 80k+ ton full displacement conventionally powered supercarrier. But whether it will continue using steam turbines or move to other more advanced conventional propulsion (such as gas turbines and diesels in IEPS) is a big question, and is also related to whether 002 will use steam or EM cats. Some rumours have indicated steam might be the safer option the navy will go for, but at this stage I think there's no fully agreed upon consensus.

Then there's the big question of how many 002s they will build... seeing as JN is going to build the first 002, if the navy decides to order another 002 will it be DL which builds it or JN? If it is DL, then how long will the new ship's construction be staggered after DL is finished with 001A? That is to say, would the navy be ambitious and try to squeeze in 002 asap after 001A is launched, or would they wait a few years when JN's 002 is already at late stages of construction or launched, before giving the go ahead for DL to construct the second 002?
Or, if there's no second 002, will the navy be moving on directly to a CVN after JN's single 002? And again, would it be DL or JN building it?

I'm sure these questions will be resolved in due time.

 

[Jeff Head]

Regarding 002.

...would the navy be ambitious and try to squeeze in 002 asap after 001A is launched, or would they wait a few years when JN's 002 is already at late stages of construction or launched, before giving the go ahead for DL to construct the second 002?

Or, if there's no second 002, will the navy be moving on directly to a CVN after JN's single 002? And again, would it be DL or JN building it?

I'm sure these questions will be resolved in due time.

My own feeling is that if 002 is conventionally powered (and I am almost certain it will be), we will see two conventional 002s built.

Then, when they build their first nuclear carrier, that is the class they will use going forward.

First to build to two of them, then enhance it over time (as the US has done with the Nimitz class...basically making two enhancements over the initial design...not in hull form but in other areas) but still use that basic design ultimately to replace the Liaoning Class, and then the initial conventional CATOBAR class as they reach the end of their service life.

By the time they replace the conventional CATOBARs (002s), they may well have a new design similar to the way the US added the Ford class.

Of course...I will probably not live to see the Liaoning or her sister replaced...and certainly not the conventional CATOBAR designs.

 

[Blitzo]

My own feeling is that if 002 is conventionally powered (and I am almost certain it will be), we will see two conventional 002s built.

Then, when they build their first nuclear carrier, that is the class they will use going forward.

First to build to two of them, then enhance it over time (as the US has done with the Nimitz class...basically making two enhancements over the initial design...not in hull form but in other areas) but still use that basic design ultimately to replace the Liaoning Class, and then the initial conventional CATOBAR class as they reach the end of their service life.

By the time they replace the conventional CATOBARs (002s), they may well have a new design similar to the way the US added the Ford class.

Of course...I will probably not live to see the Liaoning or her sister replaced...and certainly not the conventional CATOBAR designs.

I also believe we will probably see two 002s... followed by a nuclear class. And if the 002s really are kitty hawk sized supercarriers, then their overall hull and flight deck arrangement might end up being the basis of the nuclear carrier's design as well in the same way that US supercarriers had transitioned.

This would probably only occur by 2030. I would expect the first 002 to enter service before 2025, the second 002 to enter service around 2027, and then 003/CVN to possibly enter service around 2030.

 

[Jeff Head]

I also believe we will probably see two 002s... followed by a nuclear class. And if the 002s really are kitty hawk sized supercarriers, then their overall hull and flight deck arrangement might end up being the basis of the nuclear carrier's design as well in the same way that US supercarriers had transitioned.

This would probably only occur by 2030. I would expect the first 002 to enter service before 2025, the second 002 to enter service around 2027, and then 003/CVN to possibly enter service around 2030.

Depends on how fast they want a force of that size.

I believe 001A will be in service by 2020.

They are apparently already building 002. If it is pushed, they could have it launched and in sea trials by 2020. If they started the second within a year or so of launching 001A from Dalian, then they could have the second 002 launched and in sea trials by 2022-2023.

Just depends on how badly they want to push things.

My own feel is very similar to yours:

002 (1) in service between 2022-2023.
002 (2) in service by 2026-2027.
003 (1) in service (as you say) by 2029-2030.

Imagine that, by 2030 it is pretty likely IMHO, that the PLAN will have five full sized aircraft carriers (not jump-jet carriers, not helicopter carriers, but full sized,fixed wing arrested landing carriers) in service. No body else, IMHO, can or will do that outside of the US.

 

[Jeff Head]

Hehehe...of course all of this would mean that regarding a certain wager...the fix would be in! LOL!

 

[kroko]

Many rumours seem to describe 002 as resembling the Kitty Hawk class somewhat, in line with an 80k+ ton full displacement conventionally powered supercarrier.

Well, fzgfzy said in august that 002 will have less than 80.000 tons. What do you think?

 

[Blitzo]

Well, fzgfzy said in august that 002 will have less than 80.000 tons. What do you think?

Full or standard displacement, and also how much less. A few hundred tons? A few thousand? Ten thousand?

I think he also said a while back that 055 would have a standard displacement of 11,000+ tons and a full displacement of 12,000+ tons which is obviously a bit eyebrow raising because any surface combatant with a standard displacement of 11,000 tons would very well reasonably have a full displacement in excess of 13,000 tons at least, given the similar numbers of other surface combatants in the world.

So I personally do not hold the displacement numbers given by various big shrimps as on the dot predictions, but rather that the displacement would likely be "around" the number described... Unless they are more specific.

 

[joshuatree]

More importantly when commissioned it will give China the ability to have deployed a carrier strike group 24/7 if needed

Isn't the rule of thumb three carriers to maintain 24/7 availability?

 

[bd popeye]

Drum roll please.....

I see that great American Jeff Head has come to the conclusion that the ship in question is indeed an PLAN CV...What do I think??..I know inquiring minds want to know...

The more I see the ship the more I think it MAY be an carrier. Now if I could see the stern and see that she has at least two screws I'd give my blessing. Right now I'm not 100% sure..but I am leaning towards that this ship is indeed an aircraft carrier. As more of the upper decks are built the more I will be convinced that this ship is the real deal.

Of course all this suspense could be eleviated IF the PLAN had a media conference and officially announced to the Naval world.."we are building an aircraft carrier".. but that would be no fun.

I'm out and on vacation which does not start officially until Wednesday..but since I'm retired I can goof off as I please.

 

[PanAsian]

No one's going to see me concede the bet until all the evidence is in, even if just for a draw!

Ultimately I am curious to see how and how well CV's fit into China's grand strategy. If any Chinese carriers eventually demonstrate themselves to be white elephants or sitting ducks my assessment would still be vindicated regardless of when and how many Chinese carriers get built.