No, china should definitely get itself ready to do the first strike if it thinks us military is about to do that. As we discussed, initiating the exchange is very important.
And I never disputed that, the point I have been making throughout is that China’s military planning cannot depend on being able to throw the first punch and land a knock-out blow. That’s where the Japanese went wrong and China would be stupid to repeat that mistake
Your other comments don't make sense. Most of us naval assets in Asia and Pacifica will be in port or docks somewhere at the start of the conflict. So pla definitely want to hit them when they are the least prepared. That's why normalizing these large scale exercises with Russians and around Taiwan is important. Us navy would have minimal confidence in determining a real attack from a large war game. If us naval assets are out and about, then it becomes so much harder to prosecute your attack.
That very much depends on the war going according to China’s timetable and plans doesn’t it? If it’s the US that decides to initiate the war, you think they would do it at a time when most of their fleet is down and undergoing repairs and maintenance?
Again, unless you are talking about a Pearl Harbour 2.0 surprise attack (which seems to be basically what you are advocating), the war won’t just go from zero to fire all missiles with the snap of your fingers.
Realistically speaking, barring some massive unexpected freak event, there will be a lengthy period of build-up and escalating tensions on both sides before the first shot is fired. Just from a logistics POV, the PLAN has just as many, if not more of its fleet at port at any one time as the USN. Sure, the PLAN will have better spin-up times since their ships are at port waiting on orders in high readiness states rather than being on rest and repair break from long deployments, but it would still take time to get the ships and crews ready for deployment, which will be very obvious if the PLAN is making its whole fleet ready to put out to sea. And no, no major exercise would come close to the scale of activity that would happen in the event of active preparation for real AR.
One also need to remember that AR, above all else, will be a political decision, and American direct involvement is by no means guaranteed if it’s China that kicks things off.
From a purely tactical POV, it might make sense to do a surprise alpha strike, but from a strategic and political POV, that might not make sense since doing so would turn a possibility into a certainty.
The costs and consequences of a direct shooting war between the US and China would be so colossal, I think China will not fire the first shot against the Americans unless the US formally and blindingly commit to going to war over Taiwan in the event of AR first.
Instead I think the PLA will try to force the US to commit first, either by crossing a declared red line, or firing the first shot, and the US will do everything it can to resist tipping its hand prematurely. Eventually a point might be reached where China decides that it is a certainty that America will attack, thus there is no point in waiting, but the Americans will wish to stretch that time as long as possible. But the point is, from China’s POV, it has to approach its prep from a worst case scenario to be fully prepared, which involves having to fight the entire USN forward deployed fleet out at sea rather than hoping to catch a meaningful number of them at port.
That would be a massive tactical disadvantage for China, which is the whole point of strategic ambiguity for the US.
If they can and do catch principle USN surface combatants in port, great bonus. But they should not plan around it, never mind re-tasking critically important assets like 093Bs for such missions, because ships at port are so acutely vulnerable, you have far bigger problems if you need to do special preparation to hit them. That’s like saying J20s need to have a long range surface strike capability and that all J20s doing CAP missions should carry such ground attack munitions just in case they find F35s still on the ground. There are so many other assets and weapons that can and should be doing the surface strike missions that J20s really should not be wasting their time and combat potential for those missions unless and until you have so many J20s that air dominance is assured.
And after the initial strikes, it would be silly for them to not try to after naval assets and facilities that are further away like pearl, Bremerton and San Diego. Why would not go after those targets? Great time to cause further destructions to ships that are getting repaired, to the repair facilities and to any other facilities that could help American war efforts.
Well that depends on so many factors it is far from a foregone conclusion like you are suggesting. Overreach is a thing, and there are countless examples in history where one side has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by unwisely pushing too far too fast.
It would be a needless and silly own goal to loose warships or even carriers trying to hit Pearl and San Diego if between your fleets and land based A2AD assets, you can already effectively lock the USN out of the western pacific, and the ships you lost trying to hit Pearl/San Diego then gave the USN a chance to break back into the second and first island chains to threaten AR and/or China’s coast industrial base.
The goal for China isn’t to Red Dawn America, but rather to secure Taiwan and maybe also other first island chain islands being using in direct attack against China in the event of AR to fully shatter the first island chain and safeguard Taiwan and the mainland coast from attack.
Maybe they can spam cruise missiles at Pearl with H20s to keep the USN on the back foot, but San Diego would be wildly excessive.
Even if you want to go all out and hit San Diego, 093Bs are completely the wrong platform to use. The aforementioned drone arsenal subs and/or SSGNs would be far better assets for such long range strikes.
