Leaning 60/40 for.
PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC
- Thread starter SEAD
- Start date
Thing is that Russia is already actively engaged against US proxy forces, if things really came to a head there would be less of a threshold for Russian involvement than for someone not already engaged in hostilities (and why Iranian involvement in Ukraine was more expedient for them than it would be for India for example).
Firstly - If that's the case, why is China pursuing the 076 LHD?
Secondly - A couple months ago, Deino posted a open tender for constructing a flat-deck testbed ship of some sort on Twitter, which I will quote below:
(RIP PLAOps' Twitter account lol)
Should the PLAN be interested in the project, there is a massive potential to derive a light carrier design which displaces around 15000-20000 tons from this testbed ship, which can deploy helicopters and drones for specializing in not just anti-submarine warfare, but also scout & recon, and early warning missions.
And @Maikeru (sorry for not responding to your question earlier): There is no mention of either a ski jump or an EMALS catapult for the flat-deck testbed ship in the open tender.
However, yesterday I did some digging through @大包CG‘s Weibo album, and this is what I found:
Seems like @大包CG has improved upon the original design and made it into a proper light carrier, equipped with an EMALS catapult as well. The flat-deck testbed ship only has a set of arresting wires.
For convenience's sake, let's name this light carrier 077.
Placing the 076M light carrier side-by-side to the flat-deck testbed ship and 071 LPD:
The build is pretty cool, to be honest. The 077 looks like a baby 076 or 076-lite to me. With smaller dimension and displacement than contemporary LHDs, the 077s definitely can be fielded in large numbers.
However, if the 077 is meant to sail on the high seas and operate alongside carrier strike group (CSG) as a dedicated scout, early warning and ASW carrier, then the stipulated top speed of the 077 must be significantly increased from the original 16 knots of the testbed ship. 16 knots ain't going to cut it when everyone else in the CSG can do 28-30 knots.
@AndrewS and @BoraTas I believe this is what you are referring to.
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Not really. The ship you are referring to is a pure test and likely training platform. It shows China is serious about the flattop business if it is real.
The 076 won't be an ASW carrier. It will be an LHD with a catapult for drones. I can see why a nation would pursue such a ship. Land warfare without drones is already an outdated idea. The world has changed in that regard in the past 5 years. So having amphibious assault ships carry drones and a small catapult to launch a large variety of drones is a good idea.
As I said in multiple posts earlier, a USS America-type ship might not be a good idea for China. The USA has interservice rivalry and small shipbuilding industry. For them, using amphibious assault ships as light carriers in addition to their original role is a sensible approach. For China, it is likely not. China would just churn out a few more CVNs if it was in the place of the USA. Its shipbuilding industry could easily handle it.
The dynamics of ASW are inherently different from the support of amphibious forces too. It is an inherently risky mission. A good ASW carrier should be capable of surface combatant-like speeds, quiet, and somewhat expendable. I don't think China will go this route though. Considering that helicopters are a standard in surface combatants nowadays, a carrier group would have plenty of helicopters anyway.
I agree that this is the most likely scenario, but I think it's China's initiative to pick and choose, barring something like out right declaration of independence by the Taiwanese. What I mean is the Americans are going to keep throwing trigger scenarios at China (salami slicing), short of independence. However, one day China could choose to take one of America's offers and start Armed Reunification.
Hypothetical scenario: In 2025, a newly elected China-hawk US president announces a visit to Taiwan. China publicly declares it a red line ahead of time, but as anticipated the Americans cross it anyway as it would be too embarrassing to step back. China initiates something similar to post-Pelosi visit, but morphs into full blockade and armed reunification.
In this situation, the US military will definitely be on emergency footing prior to the provocative visit, and the core of the 7th fleet will not be sitting in Yokosuka. Rather, they'll most likely be taking up positions somewhere between the 1IC & 2IC. In fact, the Americans will be pre-positioning a lot of extra assets on the edge of the region already in anticipation.
Then from here it becomes a game of timing the "First Strike". America and Japan will try to rush enough assets in to knock out the PLA before they overwhelm Taiwan. Meanwhile, the PLA will be thinking about when to destroy the alliance buildup. I don't think they'll wait for them to fire the first shot as that is way too risky. If they can overwhelm Taiwan quickly, the US and Japan won't have time to intervene and it won't be necessary.
Personally, I think the PLA will "First Strike", but as part of the development in a crisis such as my hypothetical scenario. Much less likely we'll wake up one random morning and find out all the US bases in the Westpac have been destroyed. There's a political aspect as well, I think China will find it important to paint the US as the provocateur if they're going to go big.
Cross-posted from PLAN ASW Capability thread.
A timely reminder on the importance of having strong and effective ASW capabilities, especially for the protection of large surface warships on the high seas. This is especially true in the vast expanses of the Pacific, populated by the large numbers of American and British SSNs coupled with Japanese and South Korean SSKs - All of which have world-leading underwater stealth technology.
Imagine having an enemy submarine sticking right underneath your aircraft carrier for more than an hour without your escorting ships even discovering that the enemy submarine even existed. Other than the enmy submarine being able to torpedo your carrier from a much closer distance, having an enemy special mission submarine attaching timed/remotely detonated limpet mines underneath the hull of the carrier is also a big possibility.
Though, I wouldn't be shocked if similar stories of American or British submarines having done the same thing with the PLA Navy as late as the early 2010s came out - Because Chinese ASW capabilities are indeed sh1tty back then.
A timely reminder on the importance of having strong and effective ASW capabilities, especially for the protection of large surface warships on the high seas. This is especially true in the vast expanses of the Pacific, populated by the large numbers of American and British SSNs coupled with Japanese and South Korean SSKs - All of which have world-leading underwater stealth technology.
Imagine having an enemy submarine sticking right underneath your aircraft carrier for more than an hour without your escorting ships even discovering that the enemy submarine even existed. Other than the enmy submarine being able to torpedo your carrier from a much closer distance, having an enemy special mission submarine attaching timed/remotely detonated limpet mines underneath the hull of the carrier is also a big possibility.
Though, I wouldn't be shocked if similar stories of American or British submarines having done the same thing with the PLA Navy as late as the early 2010s came out - Because Chinese ASW capabilities are indeed sh1tty back then.
Didn't PLAN did the same to one of USN's CSG some time ago?
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That is why state of the art SSKs were traditionally that important to Chinese defense. This was what they used to do when US sent ships on an incursion, before China got a myriad other ways to sink an incoming hostile fleet.
And there is a significant promise in that since the SSKs already reach a world leading level, given the right funding, the same technologies can be adapted for the SSN program.
Transiting from slow and quiet SSK to fast but equally quiet SSN will be the biggest change and leap which China can undertake in the upcoming few years.
meh, that sub popped because it was discovered. You don't pop out unless the adversary noticed you and actively pinging you.
Why is that? It makes no sense for a submarine to do that in peace or war - if it's during war, the submarine will take evasive action or start its attack, and if it's peace, the submarine won't be fired at and it's not forced to do anything.
Japanese SSKs get pinged by the PLA all the time and they don't surface.