PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC


AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
No, YMTC's supply chain audit was to find the dependencies in the first place, not because it was dependent. The supply chain goes deep and dependencies come up in unexpected places.

The point is that in the semiconductor industry, the machines are generally made entirely in the West.
Yes, the US would find some unexpected dependencies, but the nature of this technology means there are comparatively few to deal with.
In terms of lithography, how many Chinese sourced components do Nikon or ASML actually use? The machines were mostly designed years ago, so my guess is barely any.

And my guess that the YMTC still has a lot of machinery suppliers who obtain components from overseas. That will change in time, but I don't think it's the situation now.

It seems that you are convinced that just in time supply chains are highly resilient, black box subassemblies are easy to find full replacements for and it's super easy to reverse engineer and produce complex custom mechanical parts that have neither vendor documentation nor anything beyond a serial number. I've never seen that to be the case, historical precedent including the Saturn 5 rocket hasn't shown that to be the case, but maybe you know a case.

Just in time supply chains are not resilient. And if you think about it, most components in products are not black box subassemblies.
Most products are actually fairly simple, with the most complex parts being the electronics.

Cars are probably the most complex mass-market product in the world, yet supply chain audits happen fairly easily.
And we've seen many of the supply chain vulnerabilities in world already appear over the past 2 years with all the COVID disruptions.

I don't know where you get this confidence from. So has anything like this ever happened historically? Please, enlighten us on that.

It goes back to how long it takes to reconfigure or produce an entirely new industrial supply chain. The best analogues are what happened during WW2 when trade links were severed and the various countries had no choice but to build alternatives.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Major
Registered Member
The point is that in the semiconductor industry, the machines are generally made entirely in the West.
Yes, the US would find some unexpected dependencies, but the nature of this technology means there are comparatively few to deal with.
In terms of lithography, how many Chinese sourced components do Nikon or ASML actually use? The machines were mostly designed years ago, so my guess is barely any.

And my guess that the YMTC still has a lot of machinery suppliers who obtain components from overseas. That will change in time, but I don't think it's the situation now.



Just in time supply chains are not resilient. And if you think about it, most components in products are not black box subassemblies.
Most products are actually fairly simple, with the most complex parts being the electronics.

Cars are probably the most complex mass-market product in the world, yet supply chain audits happen fairly easily.
And we've seen many of the supply chain vulnerabilities in world already appear over the past 2 years with all the COVID disruptions.



It goes back to how long it takes to reconfigure or produce an entirely new industrial supply chain. The best analogues are what happened during WW2 when trade links were severed and the various countries had no choice but to build alternatives.
WW2 is not a reasonable comparison. WW2 was closer to an era where most people used horse carts and worked in agriculture, than it is to today. Products were far less sophisticated and even countries like Czechoslovakia had a large MIC and automotive industry, see Skoda and Brno Armory which supplied the Waffen SS.

Even with cooperative vendors it is difficult to identify all parts of an existing product to recreate it or an equivalent. See Saturn V.

No, non electronics products are not all simple, look under the hood of a car in your automotive example.

Yes, there are many black box subassemblies, try identifying the function and BoM of a random unlabeled PCB if you doubt this.

Photolithography isn't the only piece of semiconductor equipment. The supply chain for semiconductors is vast, the supply chain deep intovcompanies with roots as far back as the 19th century, and suffice to say, you should really read the semiconductor thread as a very cursory introduction to news in this sector. Even the cheapest part - packaging - is critical and technically challenging.
 

watdahek

New Member
Registered Member
I just saw the conversations in this thread that happened around mid-May regarding a chinese nuclear retaliation upon receiving conventional strikes to its industrial base. I would like to add another example that I think pretty convincingly invalidates this.

Back in WW2, Nazi Germany had a lot of chemical weapons stored, but never used them even until its unconditional surrender and fall of Berlin. This is a regime that is far more fanatical, evil, and aggressive than China, and had plenty of opportunities to deliver chemical weapons to Britain or Soviet civilian centers via V1/V2 rockets and bombers/artillery, but never committed to it because it knew it will get retaliated with chemical weapons as well.

I do not think China will face situations that will be worse than Nazi Germany.
 

tphuang

Brigadier
VIP Professional
Registered Member
One thing I realized is that I have not even looked at the bomber units and where they are located, so using Scramble. I have the following (H-6K unless otherwise specified)

10th bomber division at Anqing - about 1100 km to Okinawa, 1250 km to Sasebo, 2200 km to Tokyo, 2400 km to Misawa, 3400 km to Guam

106th Air brigade at Dengzhou -1680 km to Okinawa, 1670 km to Sasebo, 2560 km to Tokyo, 2700 km to Misawa, 3900 km to Guam

8th bomber division at Leiyang -1470 km to Okinawa, 1790 km to Sasebo, 2730 km to Tokyo, 2950 km to Misawa, 3550 km to Guam

10th bomber division at Nanjing/Luhe (H-6H and H-6M brigades) - about 1050 km to Okinawa, 1000 km to Sasebo, 1930 km to Tokyo, 2200 km to Misawa

8th bomber division at Shaodong -1570 km to Okinawa, 1830 km to Sasebo, 2780 km to Tokyo, 3050 km to Misawa, 3700 km to Guam

36th bomber division at Wugong -2050 km to Okinawa, 1960 km to Sasebo, 2840 km to Tokyo, 2960 km to Misawa, 4300 km to Guam

36th bomber division at Xi'an (H-6H) - Similar distance to Wugong

PLAN locations
6th Division 17th air regiment at Denyang (changzhou) H-6G - 920 km to Sasebo and 1880 km to Yokosuka
5th independent regiment at Denyang H-6J (2 digit serials)

8th Division 23rd air regiment at Guiping H-6G - 2210 k to Sasebo and 3120 to Yokosuka
1st indepdent regiment at Guiping H-6J

I'm assuming the H-6K will be used as missile carriers for both LACMs and YJ-12s, so I listed major regions where they'd called upon to hit with cruise missiles and YJ-12s.

For H-6J, I'm assuming they will only be used against naval targets in the beginning phase of the war. It's unclear to me if they can be used for land attack.

I'm assuming in most cases, each H-6K/J will carry 4 YJ-12s for anti-ship missions and 6 LACMs for land attack missions. In limited cases like Anqing, it may be asked to also carpet bomb with a lot of PGMs on Taiwan and Okinawa. Big difference between hitting 30 targets by mission vs 6 targets. It would seem to me that Changzhou is a great location for the start of a conflict, so PLAN would want to deploy as many H-6Js there as possible if they are planning an attack. Moving H-6J to south command or even Spratlys would make sense in the middle as they try to attack possible enemy fleet coming from the south or the west.
 

vincent

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I just saw the conversations in this thread that happened around mid-May regarding a chinese nuclear retaliation upon receiving conventional strikes to its industrial base. I would like to add another example that I think pretty convincingly invalidates this.

Back in WW2, Nazi Germany had a lot of chemical weapons stored, but never used them even until its unconditional surrender and fall of Berlin. This is a regime that is far more fanatical, evil, and aggressive than China, and had plenty of opportunities to deliver chemical weapons to Britain or Soviet civilian centers via V1/V2 rockets and bombers/artillery, but never committed to it because it knew it will get retaliated with chemical weapons as well.

I do not think China will face situations that will be worse than Nazi Germany.
Interesting choice of words. The comparison is more apt at describing the US
American will be delusional if they think China will not use nukes if America bombs and invades China.
 
Last edited:

watdahek

New Member
Registered Member
Interesting choice of words. The comparison is more apt at describing the US
American will be delusional if they think China will not use nukes if America bombs and invades China.

Sure, Nazi Germany is more aggresive, evil, and fanatical than US, no problem with that.

If Nazi Germany restrained itself from using chemical weapons on enemy states that possess chemical weapons, I think it is more delusional to say modern great powers will use WMD on another great power possessing WMD even when there are no existential threat. I will stop here, since it is off topic, I just felt this example shows the incredibly high threshold for situations that warrant using WMD.
 

vincent

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
If Nazi Germany restrained itself from using chemical weapons on enemy states that possess chemical weapons, I think it is more delusional to say modern great powers will use WMD on another great power possessing WMD even when there are no existential threat. I will stop here, since it is off topic, I just felt this example shows the incredibly high threshold for situations that warrant using WMD.
If that’s the case, why don’t NATO send troops to Ukraine then?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Major
Registered Member
Sure, Nazi Germany is more aggresive, evil, and fanatical than US, no problem with that.

If Nazi Germany restrained itself from using chemical weapons on enemy states that possess chemical weapons, I think it is more delusional to say modern great powers will use WMD on another great power possessing WMD even when there are no existential threat. I will stop here, since it is off topic, I just felt this example shows the incredibly high threshold for situations that warrant using WMD.
Chemical weapons are generally ineffective and many Nazi Germans hoped for - and got - high positions in postwar Germany including
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. If they used chemical weapons they wouldn't have been able to decisively cripple any allies and the cushy postwar jobs would be replaced by long prison sentences, minimum.
 

Biscuits

Senior Member
Registered Member
Agree that chance of WMD use is almost zero.

And no, China would not use it even if the US committed a war crime by attacking civilians.

The real question is, from which base can US attack civilians from anyways? Not any Korean or Japanese bases, so Guam or an aircraft carrier? Highly risky and useless action because the volume of engagement is so small anyways. Not using it to fight military targets doesn't make sense.

And if a Korean or Japanese base is used, China could not just launch symbolic conventional hypersonic strikes on the US mainland, but more importantly, carpet bomb major Jap and SK population centers in retaliation. So no sane west Pacific leader would allow their territory for the US to commit an atrocity, because their own human cost will be immense.
 

Top