PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC (first wave, sustained, other)


SEAD

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If those 480 SSN-G missiles were not so important to greatly increase the likelihood of successfully knocking out Guam and enabling sustained strikes in the 2nd island chain, then sure, why not use those submarines for striking other targets beyond?
But I don't think the PLA can afford that luxury until after 2035 if not 2040.
It depends on how you define 'knocking out'. 30 H-20 sorties per 12 or 24 hours is much more than enough to stop any aerial operations of Guam and destroy all fixed facilities in a month, and that's a number they can reach before 2030.
 

Bltizo

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It depends on how you define 'knocking out'. 30 H-20 for every 12 or 24 hours is much more than enough to stop any aerial operations of Guam.

I disagree.

Because your H-20s are not striking Guam in isolation.

Instead the entire PLA is facing multiple layers of US defenses in the first island chain all the way out to Guam, that will need to be degraded and bypassed, and whose defenses will also take out chunks of your strike package.


To ensure mission success I think those 30 H-20s every need to be accompanied by about 1000 long range land based missiles, and multiple hundred submarine launched missiles prepositioned close to Guam, and ideally with 2-3 carrier strike groups worth of strike fighters and surface combatants.

After that, you can conduct multiple re attacks with sustained firepower using H-20s and carrier based strike fighters to permanently take Guam off the board and also to hunt and take out islands where the US is trying to exercise ACE.
 

SEAD

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I disagree.

Because your H-20s are not striking Guam in isolation.

Instead the entire PLA is facing multiple layers of US defenses in the first island chain all the way out to Guam, that will need to be degraded and bypassed, and whose defenses will also take out chunks of your strike package.
I think you highly underestimated the efficiency of modern VLO bombers. 1st island chain, just like its name, is nothing but some sparse islands. USAF is facing a much much denser air defense network but they still decide to bet their future on the huge contract of 145 B-21. Meanwhile PLAAF, after explored this field for 30 years, perhaps did much wider and deeper research than any competitors, also decides to build H-20 as their main attack platform. You can trust the double endorsement.
To ensure mission success I think those 30 H-20s every need to be accompanied by about 1000 long range land based missiles, and multiple hundred submarine launched missiles prepositioned close to Guam, and ideally with 2-3 carrier strike groups worth of strike fighters and surface combatants.
If that's the case, you don't need H-20 but H-6 is exactly what you need.

I think you highly underestimated the efficiency of modern VLO bombers. 1st island chain, just like its name, is nothing but some sparse islands. USAF is facing a much much denser air defense network but they still decide to bet their future on the huge contract of 145 B-21. Meanwhile PLAAF, after explored this field for 30 years,
“This field” here is anti-stealthy tech. Sorry for my oversight.
perhaps did much wider and deeper research than any competitors, also decides to build H-20 as their main attack platform. You can trust the double endorsement.

If that's the case, you don't need H-20 but H-6 is exactly what you need.
I believe that’s what they plan to do with H-6 and any future bomber must be more efficient, considering their cost.
 
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Bltizo

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This tangent of our discussion is more becoming about bombers and first wave strike requirements. It's an interesting discussion, but we arent' really talking about SSN-G/SSN related requirements now, so this will be my last reply on this particular tangent.
If you want to continue the discussion elsewhere, it can be moved to a new thread.


I think you highly underestimated the efficiency of modern VLO bombers. 1st island chain, just like its name, is nothing but some sparse islands. USAF is facing a much much denser air defense network but they still decide to bet their future on the huge contract of 145 B-21. Meanwhile PLAAF, after explored this field for 30 years, perhaps did much wider and deeper research than any competitors, also decides to build H-20 as their main attack platform. You can trust the double endorsement.

No, I do not underestimate the efficiency and capability of VLO bombers.
I think they can be devastatingly effective, however I believe that during periods of conflict the US would forward deploy extensive assets in the first island chain and second island chain that will be capable of causing attrition against PLA VLO H-20s as they transit from China to the launch area for their weapons against Guam as part of a first wave strike.

As I described below, this is the sort of environment I expect the PLA to be facing between China and Guam:

The outermost layer, in the 1st island chain, are US assets in the first island chain. Land based BMD radar and BMD batteries, land based fighters with AEW&C, and even naval ships with BMD capability.
The middle layer is between the 1st and 2nd island chain, composed of carriers, naval ships with BMD, and perhaps small islands with forward deployed smaller BMD radars and BMD batteries.
The final layer is in the 2nd island chain, including Guam and smaller islands that have their own land based comprehensive BMD and land based airbases with fighters and AEW&C, as well as escorting naval ships with BMD, perhaps carriers as well.

All of those layers will seek to track PLA land based missile and aircraft attacks launched towards Guam, as well as seek to shoot them down and thin them down as much as possible before they reach Guam. In other words, PLA attacks from land will have to go through three layers of defense, because at the commencement of hostilities, those land based weapons are naturally not forward deployed close to Guam.


Now, the PLA will obviously take measures to strike, defeat, degrade US defensive layers between China and Guam, but I expect H-20s flying the mission are still going to suffer losses just to make it to the launch zone.


If that's the case, you don't need H-20 but H-6 is exactly what you need.

H-6K family bombers could be useful once the bulk of US western pacific air warfare capabilities are destroyed....

....but during the early stages of a conflict (such as the first wave strike we are talking about), I do not expect H-6s to be able to survive even 200km outside of Chinese airspace, let alone travel 1500-2000km outside of Chinese airspace to launch weapons against Guam.
 

Bltizo

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*scroll scroll scroll* :rolleyes: can we take the bomber vs sub discussion elsewhere??

The VLS requirements of future 09V/SSN in relation to strike missions is a fair topic of discussion in this thread, I think.

The discussion about only bombers and strike missions without 09V involvement, is for a different thread, and as I wrote in reply 978, it was the last reply I had on that tangent.
 

SEAD

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This tangent of our discussion is more becoming about bombers and first wave strike requirements. It's an interesting discussion, but we arent' really talking about SSN-G/SSN related requirements now, so this will be my last reply on this particular tangent.
If you want to continue the discussion elsewhere, it can be moved to a new thread.




No, I do not underestimate the efficiency and capability of VLO bombers.
I think they can be devastatingly effective, however I believe that during periods of conflict the US would forward deploy extensive assets in the first island chain and second island chain that will be capable of causing attrition against PLA VLO H-20s as they transit from China to the launch area for their weapons against Guam as part of a first wave strike.

As I described below, this is the sort of environment I expect the PLA to be facing between China and Guam:

The outermost layer, in the 1st island chain, are US assets in the first island chain. Land based BMD radar and BMD batteries, land based fighters with AEW&C, and even naval ships with BMD capability.
The middle layer is between the 1st and 2nd island chain, composed of carriers, naval ships with BMD, and perhaps small islands with forward deployed smaller BMD radars and BMD batteries.
The final layer is in the 2nd island chain, including Guam and smaller islands that have their own land based comprehensive BMD and land based airbases with fighters and AEW&C, as well as escorting naval ships with BMD, perhaps carriers as well.

The capability of BMD is very suspicious when facing missiles with contemporary tech. Aegis can interrupt neither DF-26 in 2015 nor DF-17 in 2022, I don’t think in 2030 they can be magically more efficient so 1) PLARF is enough for any ‘kicking the door’ operation 2) spending too many resources on BMD of 1st island is unreasonable. I believe US has realized that and that’s why they are spending less for BMD but more for bombers, SSNs and NGAD, especially compared with what they were doing several years ago.
All of those layers will seek to track PLA land based missile and aircraft attacks launched towards Guam, as well as seek to shoot them down and thin them down as much as possible before they reach Guam. In other words, PLA attacks from land will have to go through three layers of defense, because at the commencement of hostilities, those land based weapons are naturally not forward deployed close to Guam.
Any USAF attack packages must face even more defense but they still decide to leverage B-21 as a part of first wave of strike. I said they have endorsed the capability of VLO platforms in this way.
Now, the PLA will obviously take measures to strike, defeat, degrade US defensive layers between China and Guam, but I expect H-20s flying the mission are still going to suffer losses just to make it to the launch zone.
Any operation must suffer losses, the real question is is it worth it.
H-6K family bombers could be useful once the bulk of US western pacific air warfare capabilities are destroyed....

....but during the early stages of a conflict (such as the first wave strike we are talking about), I do not expect H-6s to be able to survive even 200km outside of Chinese airspace, let alone travel 1500-2000km outside of Chinese airspace to launch weapons against Guam.
I don’t know what’s your imagination about a 1000 MRBM/CMs attack, but for me it can literally stop all 1st island chain air bases for a long time and destroy hundreds of planes, so H-6 can freely go anywhere, at least for a while.
Indeed I cannot believe they will use so many missiles for 1st island chain even during the whole war.

could anybody move these posts to another thread?
 

Bltizo

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The capability of BMD is very suspicious when facing missiles with contemporary tech. Aegis can interrupt neither DF-26 in 2015 nor DF-17 in 2022, I don’t think in 2030 they can be magically more efficient so 1) PLARF is enough for any ‘kicking the door’ operation 2) spending too many resources on BMD of 1st island is unreasonable. I believe US has realized that and that’s why they are spending less for BMD but more for bombers, SSNs and NGAD, especially compared with what they were doing several years ago.

The US is continuing to spend on BMD (including new generation BMD ships, theater BMD capabilities, and new missiles).
As for the efficacy of US BMD against DF-26 and DF-17, I think we will just have to agree to disagree.

For the purposes of discussion, I generously assume for the PLA that half of their IRBMs/HGVs that they launch at Guam from land in the main axis of attack will be shot down.



Any USAF attack packages must face even more defense but they still decide to leverage B-21 as a part of first wave of strike. I said they have endorsed the capability of VLO platforms in this way.

Actually, US attack packages will face less formidable defenses than what the PLA faces, because those B-21s will also be able to launch stand off weapons 1000km from China's airspace, and the PLA will have virtually no persistent air defense or organic air capabilities during the onset of conflict.
The nature of geography of the western pacific and the peacetime basing of US forces in the region (and the ability to surge deploy their capabilities as tensions rise prior to a conflict) means that the US will have far superior air and sea presence outside of the first island chain at onset of hostilities.

It will be the PLA's responsibility to break that presence... but until they are able to do that, it means that US B-21s will be very difficult to intercept if they are more than say, 500km outside of of China's airspace. It also simultaneously means that for PLA H-20s to conduct missions against Guam/second island chain, they would have to thoroughly crush US forces basically between the first island chain and Guam.



Any operation must suffer losses, the real question is is it worth it.

If your losses mean you are unable to achieve your mission, then it is not worth it.


I don’t know what’s your imagination about a 1000 MRBM/CMs attack, but for me it can literally stop all 1st island chain air bases for a long time and destroy hundreds of planes, so H-6 can freely go anywhere, at least for a while.
Indeed I cannot believe they will use so many missiles for 1st island chain even during the whole war.

To clarify -- I believe that 1000 land based long range missiles + 480 SSN launched missiles (prepositioned) + 30 H-20s +/- additional surface ship and possible carrier based strike from 2-3 carrier strike groups, is needed for Guam (as well as also one or two other second island chain ACE bases), on day one only.

For the first island chain, they will use many more SRBMs/shorter range ground launched weapons, with H-20s and H-6Ks and strike fighters carrying shorter range ALCMs/standoff weapons (alloperating simultaneously with the strike mission for Guam/second island chain).... with the first island chain in the initial couple of days likely requiring totalling thousands of munitions, to begin with.
 

Michaelsinodef

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H-6K family bombers could be useful once the bulk of US western pacific air warfare capabilities are destroyed....

....but during the early stages of a conflict (such as the first wave strike we are talking about), I do not expect H-6s to be able to survive even 200km outside of Chinese airspace, let alone travel 1500-2000km outside of Chinese airspace to launch weapons against Guam.
Eh, shouldn't H6 bombers be able to air launch bigger missiles that can travel 200+ km?

With these they could hit first island chain targets more 'safely' (some targets hit without leaving Chinese airspace)
 

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