PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC


Blitzo

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Eh, shouldn't H6 bombers be able to air launch bigger missiles that can travel 200+ km?

With these they could hit first island chain targets more 'safely' (some targets hit without leaving Chinese airspace)

I'm saying that H-6s won't be able to survive more than 200km outside of Chinese airspace in the early phases of a war.

If H-6s want to target Guam, they will likely have to fly at least 1500km outside of Chinese airspace (to use weapons with 1500km range).
 

Michaelsinodef

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I'm saying that H-6s won't be able to survive more than 200km outside of Chinese airspace in the early phases of a war.
Ah ok. I agree.
If H-6s want to target Guam, they will likely have to fly at least 1500km outside of Chinese airspace (to use weapons with 1500km range).
But this job wouldn't be given to H6s though, it would be given to H-20.

And even still, I kinda expect attacks on the first island chains to have been done first (even if they have not fully degraded 1st island chain bases), before H-20 starts flying past them, although timing wise this might just be an hour or some hours after launching the first attack.
 

SEAD

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Technically I don't believe any radar can detect a VLO aircraft like B-21 300km(or even 200km) away. If you check the map, you will find this range is way off for interrupting bombers crossing 1st island chain. Let alone the fact that all anti-stealthy radars are very expensive and bulky, so it's hard to deploy them in a random small island but only few islands are ideal.
AEW aircrafts and ships are much better, but just like land based radar, they are expensive, insufficient to defend the whole 1st island chain. Considering the existence of fighters and AShBM, it's also difficult to deploy them around 1st island chain before the first day.
The US is continuing to spend on BMD (including new generation BMD ships, theater BMD capabilities, and new missiles).
much less, given the budget of B-21, SSN and NGAD. BMD is basically the only important project in around 2015 but for now they are focusing on future attacking platforms.
As for the efficacy of US BMD against DF-26 and DF-17, I think we will just have to agree to disagree.
that's based on timeline of Aegis test, while practical updating is even later. But anyway, even 500 missiles is more than enough to overwhelm the whole 1st island chain.
Why do you need to segment your air wings to 4 aircrafts/group if you believe you can defend missile attacks? That's what USAF is doing in 1st island chain.
because those B-21s will also be able to launch stand off weapons 1000km from China's airspace, and the PLA will have virtually no persistent air defense or organic air capabilities during the onset of conflict.
One of the prior tasks of B-21 is hunting for TELs and SAMs in the first day(of course, with bombs rather than stand off missiles). There's one more order of magnitude of difficulty than penetrating 1st island chain.
they would have to thoroughly crush US forces basically between the first island chain and Guam.
do you know how large the area between 1st island chain and Guam is? a 10km wide path is enough for penetrating but you have to monitor 4000km for interrupting. If you don't know how difficult it is, you can try it with CMO or any other simulators.
To clarify -- I believe that 1000 land based long range missiles + 480 SSN launched missiles (prepositioned) + 30 H-20s +/- additional surface ship and possible carrier based strike from 2-3 carrier strike groups, is needed for Guam (as well as also one or two other second island chain ACE bases), on day one only.
Again, you can test it with CMO. even with their terrible database, this amount is far more than enough.
 
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SEAD

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To clarify -- I believe that 1000 land based long range missiles + 480 SSN launched missiles (prepositioned) + 30 H-20s +/- additional surface ship and possible carrier based strike from 2-3 carrier strike groups, is needed for Guam (as well as also one or two other second island chain ACE bases), on day one only.
I assume you have ever read
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, so your assumption really shocked me.
If you(or anybody) haven't read it, I really recommend to read it firstly.
 
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Blitzo

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Ah ok. I agree.

But this job wouldn't be given to H6s though, it would be given to H-20.

And even still, I kinda expect attacks on the first island chains to have been done first (even if they have not fully degraded 1st island chain bases), before H-20 starts flying past them, although timing wise this might just be an hour or some hours after launching the first attack.

The mission would be given to H-20s, and while I expect some holes to be blown in the US first island chain layers of defense, I expect other areas of defense (especially more mobile defenses like CSG CAP) to inflict some losses on the H-20s.
 

Michaelsinodef

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I assume you have ever read
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, so your assumption really shocked me.
If you(or anybody) haven't read it, I really recommend to read it firstly.
Wasn't there an even more damming report from Rand with kind of the same score card, but it was showing even worse odds for the US? (think it had 2020? Basically it was a never more updated version compared to what you linked).

I think even Xi Yazhou made a video on it on Guancha.
 

SEAD

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The mission would be given to H-20s, and while I expect some holes to be blown in the US first island chain layers of defense, I expect other areas of defense (especially more mobile defenses like CSG CAP) to inflict some losses on the H-20s.
Even without missile attack and LO capability, any contemporary SEAD operations can easily create multi holes in an IADS. Don't overestimate air defense, they are searchlights in heavy fog, not a wall.
 

SEAD

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Wasn't there an even more damming report from Rand with kind of the same score card, but it was showing even worse odds for the US? (think it had 2020? Basically it was a never more updated version compared to what you linked).

I think even Xi Yazhou made a video on it on Guancha.
I would appreciate if you can link the 2020 report, but I haven't read it.
 

Blitzo

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Technically I don't believe any radar can detect a VLO aircraft like B-21 300km(or even 200km) away. If you check the map, you will find this range is way off for interrupting bombers crossing 1st island chain. Let alone the fact that all anti-stealthy radars are very expensive and bulky, so it's hard to deploy them in a random small island but only few islands are ideal.

AEW aircraft, shipborne radar, land based radar, with modern networking, I believe can substantially increase the ability to detect VLO bombers especially if you operate in a region where you know the VLO bombers have to fly through.

AEW aircrafts and ships are much better, but just like land based radar, they are expensive, insufficient to defend the whole 1st island chain. Considering the existence of fighters and AShBM, it's also difficult to deploy them around 1st island chain before the first day.

They are capable of being deployed during the first day, because China will not start shooting at them prior to commencement of hostilities.


much less, given the budget of B-21, SSN and NGAD. BMD is basically the only important project in around 2015 but for now they are focusing on future attacking platforms.

That is partially because offense outweighs defense in the US strategic doctrine and plays into their pre-existing geographical advantages. Partly it is because those projects (new bomber, new SSN, new generation fighter) are the ones where the US has been needing to move onto the next generation anyhow.
But comprehensive BMD development and procurement remain ongoing, with current projects underway either in development or construction (Flight III Burke, new SM-6 and SM-3 variants, new THAAD variants).


that's based on timeline of Aegis test, while practical updating is even later. But anyway, even 500 missiles is more than enough to overwhelm the whole 1st island chain.
Why do you need to segment your air wings to 4 aircrafts/group if you believe you can defend missile attacks? That's what USAF is doing in 1st island chain.

Because you want to be able to defend against the missile attack while also maximizing the survivability of your aircraft to give yourself every advantage, in case if some of the missiles get through or if the enemy launches a larger salvo than expected, you do not lose everything due to an unforced error.


One of the prior tasks of B-21 is hunting for TELs and SAMs in the first day(of course, with bombs rather than stand off missiles). There's one more order of magnitude of difficulty than penetrating 1st island chain.

I'm aware of the USAF's demands for the aircraft. Depending on the opfor nation, depending on the theater of the opfor nation in which the B-21 is operating, it may well be possible that they can do day one hunting for TELs.

Against the PLA, in the 2030s, in the ETC or STC? Much more doubtful.


do you know how large the area between 1st island chain and Guam is? a 10km wide path is enough for penetrating but you have to monitor 4000km for interrupting. If you don't know how difficult it is, you can try it with CMO or any other simulators.

Again, you can test it with CMO. even with their terrible database, this amount is far more than enough.

CMO is a fine tool, and while its modelling is fine, it relies on the data to be accurate, which it seldom is.

I never said that the US needs to saturate the entire area with AEW&C and Aegis ships to pose a threat that is able to credibly degrade H-20 strike packages to Guam.



Even without missile attack and LO capability, any contemporary SEAD operations can easily create multi holes in an IADS. Don't overestimate air defense, they are searchlights in heavy fog, not a wall.

I am aware.

Carrying out SEAD operations against US integrated IADS in the first island chain to second island chain region (comprising land based aircraft and radars, at least 2-3 CSGs, and multiple additional SAGs with aegis), I believe will be very difficult.
 

Blitzo

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I assume you have ever read
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, so your assumption really shocked me.
If you(or anybody) haven't read it, I really recommend to read it firstly.

I have read it. That report is some years out of date -- some aspects of it has favoured China more since then, but some aspects have favoured the US more since then as well.

However, that scorecard (and others) is very much written from a perspective of early/mid 2010s era of perceptions of what constituted a "threat" to US dominance in the pacific and US assumptions of what are reasonable geopolitical goals for itself, which was far more luxurious than what I believe the PLA is required to do.


Let's put it this way -- my belief is that after 2035, the PLA should be capable of waging a high intensity conflict that can neutralize virtually all US air and naval surface forces, including land bases (that has been surge deployed during a period of tension leading up to conflict -- constituting up to 70% of total US deployable naval and air strength) in the western pacificwithin two to three weeks, and to be able to do so even if they roll a "two" (on a six sided dice) during the conflict in terms of luck/fortune.
After those two to three weeks, the US should have no meaningful air or naval capability west of Hawaii.

edit: the above requirement, is where the PLA is able to retain at least 75% of its primary air and naval forces, especially its blue water capable naval forces (CSGs, large combatants, SSNs). That is to say, being able to achieve the above requirement in a manner where it is not a phyrric victory.
 
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