It's useful to look at nuclear submarine construction as well
In recent years, Bohai shipyard built 2 brand new assembly buildings for submarines.
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Let's take the first submarine assembly building and assume a 9 month block assembly time (slightly faster than the fastest assembly time for a Virginia in peacetime).
That implies annual production capacity of 16 SSNs or 4 SSBN/SSGN-sized submarines (or any combination thereof).
This is far in excess of any possible peacetime requirement.
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Yet Bohai decided to build a second submarine assembly building, with roughly two-thirds of the capacity of the first building.
We haven't seen any civilian or non-submarines coming out of these buildings, so the space is not being used for other purposes.
So the only rational justification for the second assembly hall, is as emergency wartime-level production space in reserve.
If we take those 2 buildings together, there is space for 20 SSNs to be assembled simultaneously, which works out as 26.6 per year. At that rate, then every 2 years, the Chinese Navy would be adding the equivalent of the entire US Navy SSN fleet.
But of course, it would take some years to ramp up to this level.
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In addition, if this is the thinking about SSNs, then shouldn't there be corresponding emergency production "plans" for aircraft carriers, other surface warships and carrier-capable aircraft?
In recent years, Bohai shipyard built 2 brand new assembly buildings for submarines.
---
Let's take the first submarine assembly building and assume a 9 month block assembly time (slightly faster than the fastest assembly time for a Virginia in peacetime).
That implies annual production capacity of 16 SSNs or 4 SSBN/SSGN-sized submarines (or any combination thereof).
This is far in excess of any possible peacetime requirement.
---
Yet Bohai decided to build a second submarine assembly building, with roughly two-thirds of the capacity of the first building.
We haven't seen any civilian or non-submarines coming out of these buildings, so the space is not being used for other purposes.
So the only rational justification for the second assembly hall, is as emergency wartime-level production space in reserve.
If we take those 2 buildings together, there is space for 20 SSNs to be assembled simultaneously, which works out as 26.6 per year. At that rate, then every 2 years, the Chinese Navy would be adding the equivalent of the entire US Navy SSN fleet.
But of course, it would take some years to ramp up to this level.
---
In addition, if this is the thinking about SSNs, then shouldn't there be corresponding emergency production "plans" for aircraft carriers, other surface warships and carrier-capable aircraft?