PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

00CuriousObserver

00CuriousObserver

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Japan frustrated at Trump administration’s silence over row with China - Tokyo asks US to be more vocal in its support after Beijing reacted furiously to prime minister’s comments about Taiwan

Our good friend Colby makes an appearance:

Some people said the lack of US support was ironic given that Elbridge Colby, the under-secretary of defence for policy, had pushed Japan to make clear what role it would play if the US and China went to war over Taiwan.
 
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Aaa

Just Hatched
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Any Chinese move on Taiwan would require first annexing Myanmar and perhaps Mongolia. This would be relatively trivial with UAV/UGV as well as artillery dominance as well as air dominance. China is the undisputed world benchmark for local pacification, would be trivial in Myanmar and Mongolia. Annexing Myanmar would secure China's Indian ocean access and bypass the Malacca dilemma, while also providing a strongpoint to project power across the Indian ocean to secure shipping lanes. Annexing Myanmar would also secure China access to an enormous quantity of renewable freshwater, to partially mitigate climate change threats. If India intervenes in Chinese annexation of Myanmar, China would have the perfect opportunity to annex Sinitic portion of India (the entire Indian northeast). If Russia intervenes in Chinese annexation of Mongolia, China would have the perfect opportunity to annex the Russian Far East. Nuclear weapons are a paper tiger if both states have equal stockpiles. In 2025, the world has already entered the era of the transparent battlefield. 4th generation warfare is now nearly totally obsolete. FPV drones now decisively counter irregular forces. Chinese laser CIWS/C-RAM ensure Chinese ground dominance. China is a global logistics superpower. Logistics with a country China shares a land border with will be manageable. Mongolia is further basically entirely traversable with off road trucks easily. China would also need to reach nuclear parity with the U.S.. China would also need to increase it's strategic rocket forces conventional anti-ship ICBMs to a large enough stockpile to sink 3 carrier strike groups. Not doing so would allow the U.S. to activate every single proxy on China's borders as well as choke raw materials imports to China easily. U.S. would be able to enact a distant seas naval blockade. This is absolutely required as China is losing tens to hundreds of billions of dollars in investments overseas annually due to all the various forms of expropriation. Annexation is the only viable way to spread socialism.
 
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Just Hatched
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Crystalizing a Myanmar annexation would allow China to then Island hop and annex all the islands in the Indian Ocean, which would allow the annexation of the Eastern seaboard of Africa. This would ensure resource security for China, which would then allow China to annex the rest of East Asia. China through Myanmar by rail, switching to maritime shipping to East Africa. This would all be secured through bounding overwatch of A2AD.

This would directly counter the distant seas blockade strategy.
 
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Thecore

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Aaa said:
Any Chinese move on Taiwan would require first annexing Myanmar and perhaps Mongolia. This would be relatively trivial with UAV/UGV as well as artillery dominance as well as air dominance. China is the undisputed world benchmark for local pacification, would be trivial in Myanmar and Mongolia. Annexing Myanmar would secure China's Indian ocean access and bypass the Malacca dilemma, while also providing a strongpoint to project power across the Indian ocean to secure shipping lanes. Annexing Myanmar would also secure China access to an enormous quantity of renewable freshwater, to partially mitigate climate change threats. If India intervenes in Chinese annexation of Myanmar, China would have the perfect opportunity to annex Sinitic portion of India (the entire Indian northeast). If Russia intervenes in Chinese annexation of Mongolia, China would have the perfect opportunity to annex the Russian Far East. Nuclear weapons are a paper tiger if both states have equal stockpiles. In 2025, the world has already entered the era of the transparent battlefield. 4th generation warfare is now nearly totally obsolete. FPV drones now decisively counter irregular forces. Chinese laser CIWS/C-RAM ensure Chinese ground dominance. China is a global logistics superpower. Logistics with a country China shares a land border with will be manageable. Mongolia is further basically entirely traversable with off road trucks easily. China would also need to reach nuclear parity with the U.S.. China would also need to increase it's strategic rocket forces conventional anti-ship ICBMs to a large enough stockpile to sink 3 carrier strike groups. Not doing so would allow the U.S. to activate every single proxy on China's borders as well as choke raw materials imports to China easily. U.S. would be able to enact a distant seas naval blockade. This is absolutely required as China is losing tens to hundreds of billions of dollars in investments overseas annually due to all the various forms of expropriation. Annexation is the only viable way to spread socialism.
Click to expand...
Aaa said:
Crystalizing a Myanmar annexation would allow China to then Island hop and annex all the islands in the Indian Ocean, which would allow the annexation of the Eastern seaboard of Africa. This would ensure resource security for China, which would then allow China to annex the rest of East Asia. China through Myanmar by rail, switching to maritime shipping to East Africa. This would all be secured through bounding overwatch of A2AD.

This would directly counter the distant seas blockade strategy.
Click to expand...
I agree. China should also annex the USA before any move on Taiwan to lock them down from doing anything.
 
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Aaa

Just Hatched
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Thecore said:
I agree. China should also annex the USA before any move on Taiwan to lock them down from doing anything.
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My scenario would be relatively trivial militarily. Yours obviously would not be.

The only reason China is hemmed in right now is due to the logic of A2AD, and the fact that forts are far more cost effective than ships.

U.S. selling hypersonic missiles to Japan would basically already totally negate any ability of China moving on Taiwan in any real war.

LRHW has already been fully tested and can easily be sold to Japan.
 
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Aaa

Just Hatched
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China getting all it's shit expropriated overseas is a real issue for China, which is why China is totally screwed right now, in it's current condition.
 
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