PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

sunnymaxi

Colonel
Registered Member
The removal of Zhang in such humiliating fashion not only weakens China’s deterrence, but also degrades PLA’s moral since Zhang is one of the few former flag officers with in-depth combat experience. Professional officers with valuable combat experience like him are what average soldiers and frontline officers look up to as role models. It is a huge loss for China.
zero loss for China and PLA.

what 50 years old battle experience bring in today's modern warfare ?? time has changed so is warfare. we have prime example of Ukrainian armed force. despite zero experience they are fighting for last 4 years. keep learning and adapted the modern battlefield like drones and EW. there is no place for Zhang like officer in 21st century warfare except for Morale boosting. all Chinese potential future battles will be fight in Waters.

nevertheless he was going to retire next year.
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Being prepared for any contingencies is one thing; nobody is denying that the Chinese have been doing that since 1949. Having a plan and timeline to actually going through with a Taiwan campaign is another thing.

We know that the US military have plans for a Canadian campaign, but it doesn't mean that the US is planning to attack Canada by a certain date (although things might seem on the brink these days).


There likely isn't a clear definition of what it means to be "fully prepared" for a Taiwan campaign; these are moving goalposts and there might never be a "perfect" time or condition in which a Taiwan operation would make most sense.

As for public support and its supposed decline (no evidence of this but let's entertain this for argument's sake), their leadership would have to weigh that against the possibility of greater domestic backlash should a Taiwan campaign be unsuccessful or costly. I'm also not convinced that public sentiment is something that the CCP gives too much though about. Suffice it to say, things like public support and the ambiguous measure of isolationist sentiment are trivial compared to the real ramifications and risks of a Taiwan campaign, economic- and political-wise. If the Chinese government has any care about China's society, economic wellbeing, and the living standards of its citizens, it would need to ensure that armed reunification would occur only in the most dire of circumstances (e.g. an imminent and unacceptable threat to China such as the development of WMDs by Taiwan) and when there is near 100% confidence that such an operation would succeed without incurring the risk of economic or military harm.
There things that would trigger immediate total invasion's war in the straight, regardless.

- Independence and the recognition by foreign powers. The total brake of diplomatic relations and immediate war.
- Anything that threatens the KMT and opposition, if DPP Lai decided to ban KMT and persecute its members.
-WMDs
- Everything else.

And once start, it wont stop. That longer takes, the more the blood, would mean the absolute destruction of that island. So the best that can happen to Taiwanese is to be a short war.
 

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
zero loss for China and PLA.

what 50 years old battle experience bring in today's modern warfare ?? time has changed so is warfare. we have prime example of Ukrainian armed force. despite zero experience they are fighting for last 4 years. keep learning and adapted the modern battlefield like drones and EW. there is no place for Zhang like officer in 21st century warfare except for Morale boosting. all Chinese potential future battles will be fight in Waters.

nevertheless he was going to retire next year.
The kind of war that the old guard prepare to fight for doesn't exist anymore. That war being a massive land war against a Soviet Union invasion through the North or against a US Invasion through Taiwan and Korea
 

drowingfish

Senior Member
Registered Member
But if the main reason of Zhang’s removal were his political difference with Xi regarding Taiwan and reluctance to fight the Americans, then his punishment should have been dismissal only whilst keeping his Party membership and pension. Just have him retire and go teach basic combat in a military academy or work in a policy think tank.

The removal of Zhang in such humiliating fashion not only weakens China’s deterrence, but also degrades PLA’s moral since Zhang is one of the few former flag officers with in-depth combat experience. Professional officers with valuable combat experience like him are what average soldiers and frontline officers look up to as role models. It is a huge loss for China.
combat experience in Vietnam has very little to do with modern warfare.
 
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