PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

AndrewS

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i honestly think 072 is also too big, i think a re-designed 067 or 074-like LCU with high speed and towed decoy is the answer.
with proper fake targets sailing along and cover of darkness, it is almost impossible for the enemy to identify and hit the real target, and even if they somehow manage to score a hit, one ashm will only destroy one squard or platoon, very limited damage.

I'm open to the idea of more smaller 073 or 074 landing craft if they are inexpensive enough. But Type-067s look too small.

And if a Type-072A is around $13 Million (as per the comparable Indonesian LST cost), how much cheaper can a Type-073 or Type-074 actually be?

Plus I'm already getting a figure of an additional 104x Type-072A to land the combat elements of the remaining 4 Army Amphibious Mechanised Brigades amongst the first wave of any Taiwan operation. So if you use smaller ships, you're going to need at least twice as many of them.

Also, high-speed is not compatible with a requirement for low cost. Towed Decoys against torpedoes shouldn't be needed either
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I'm open to the idea of more smaller 073 or 074 landing craft if they are inexpensive enough. But Type-067s look too small.

And if a Type-072A is around $13 Million (as per the comparable Indonesian LST cost), how much cheaper can a Type-073 or Type-074 actually be?

Plus I'm already getting a figure of an additional 104x Type-072A to land the combat elements of the remaining 4 Army Amphibious Mechanised Brigades amongst the first wave of any Taiwan operation. So if you use smaller ships, you're going to need at least twice as many of them.

Also, high-speed is not compatible with a requirement for low cost. Towed Decoys against torpedoes shouldn't be needed either

@caohailiang

Also, operating costs such as the crew become increasingly important as the size of the landing craft becomes smaller.

If the current Type-072A has a crew of 120 with an average labour cost of $25K per year, then that is already $3 Million.
Contrast that with a possible acquisition cost of $13 Million for each Type-072A.

But you can't scale down the crew size as much as the size of the ship. It's similar to how the cost of a ship doesn't scale with its size/capacity.

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If I look at the Damen 120 LST, commercial ships or the US concepts for minimally-manned warships, the minimum crew looks like 22 people. So if the Chinese Navy were to build a large number of new Type-072A sized LSTs, it would make sense to update the design with automation to minimise the crew onboard. This would likely pay for itself after 5 years or so.

As for the optimal size of a new LST design, the biggest factor is how likely they will be hit during a campaign, but that likelihood will diminish as the years go by.

You could even argue for a larger LST the size of the County-class. You get more capacity for the money (procurement+operating) and you could optimise it for landings after the smaller landing craft have gone in.

My guestimate is $20 Million in acquisition costs compared to the $13M for a Type-072A. So the ship itself wouldn't be that much more of a target.
 

caohailiang

Junior Member
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@AndrewS
your calculation at least in this particular scenario is flawed. If you really want to generalize the value of a target by its manufacturing cost, at least consider the cargo it is carrying - a 072 is not just 13MUSD because it will carry 10 ZBD05 and some 100 fully armed soldiers

Unlike other program such as 003 or J20, this particular part of PLA build-up is laser-focused to solve a very particular short term problem, that is, the amphibious scenario in the strait, where the battle space is so limited, no matter which military solution you choose, it is not going to cost too much anyway, so cost is definitely not the key consideration but how to really secure the high probability of success of this operation.

and PLA only has 6 PLAMC brigades and 6(?) PLAGF combined amphibious brigades, if you lost a large portion of those force you entire operation failed, the potential cost to this country in that failure is simply not imaginable, so i really think factor such as below one is simply irrelevant

If I look at the Damen 120 LST, commercial ships or the US concepts for minimally-manned warships, the minimum crew looks like 22 people. So if the Chinese Navy were to build a large number of new Type-072A sized LSTs, it would make sense to update the design with automation to minimise the crew onboard. This would likely pay for itself after 5 years or so.
 

caohailiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
Also, high-speed is not compatible with a requirement for low cost. Towed Decoys against torpedoes shouldn't be needed either

again, low cost is not the key point because higher speed can reduce troop's exposure to stand-off strike

by towed decoy i dont mean for torpedos but more to interfere terminal guidance of ashm
 

AndrewS

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again, low cost is not the key point because higher speed can reduce troop's exposure to stand-off strike

by towed decoy i dont mean for torpedos but more to interfere terminal guidance of ashm

You can't get higher speeds with a bow ramp.

If you think about it, higher speeds means you can offload more vehicles in a day. But each ship still has the same cargo if it is hit.

And if you're talking about terminal guidance for an AShM, say the decoy works.
In the Taiwan Straits, there will be hundreds? of ships involved. A missile will end up finding a new target anyway.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
@AndrewS
your calculation at least in this particular scenario is flawed. If you really want to generalize the value of a target by its manufacturing cost, at least consider the cargo it is carrying - a 072 is not just 13MUSD because it will carry 10 ZBD05 and some 100 fully armed soldiers

Unlike other program such as 003 or J20, this particular part of PLA build-up is laser-focused to solve a very particular short term problem, that is, the amphibious scenario in the strait, where the battle space is so limited, no matter which military solution you choose, it is not going to cost too much anyway, so cost is definitely not the key consideration but how to really secure the high probability of success of this operation.

Yes, ZBD-05 vehicles costs around $4 Million each, plus you have the soldiers as well.
But after these have been launched, the typical cargo during a campaign will comprise trucks and supplies.

The US buys FMTV trucks for approximately $200K each, so you can see that 18 trucks on a Type-072 comes to less than $2 Million.

The cost comes into it, because larger numbers of low-value ships are less likely to be hit.

and PLA only has 6 PLAMC brigades and 6(?) PLAGF combined amphibious brigades, if you lost a large portion of those force you entire operation failed, the potential cost to this country in that failure is simply not imaginable, so i really think factor such as below one is simply irrelevant

At the moment there's only enough landing craft for about 2 Army Amphibious Brigades.
Remember that any landing craft would be landing on beaches which have already been largely secured by troops already inserted by helicopter and small boats.
So it doesn't actually matter too much whether vehicles are amphibious or not. They could just start landing heavy armoured brigades shortly afterwards once they have prepared a path off the beach.

Remember that the Chinese Army essentially has an unlimited supply of Army vehicles located on mainland China.

Anyway, it all goes back to how many landing ships you reckon will be sunk in a campaign, which would determine the optimum size of the landing craft. We'll just have to wait and see what is built.
 

caohailiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
@Matheus S
i would like to lay out a few key points of mine so the discussion can continue without mis-understanding, and then i will try to clarify your points

1, part of OTH landing concept means to park the LPD/LHD at minimum 30km off shore so land based radar cannot detect them thus avoid being attacked, but instead send in LCAC to shore. The risk for LPD/LHD might be reduced, but for those LCAC, they will anyway operate under artillery, mine or ashm while approaching the shore making their delivery.

2, in TW scenario, considering width of the strait is only 80 miles, why bother to use LPD/LHD to take LCAC half way and having the trouble of unloading them, why not just send the LCAC shore to shore?

3, considering limited number/lift of LCAC, follow up troops (after beach head is secured) will probably need to be transported TO SHORE by other measures, such as LST, LSM or smaller LCU, or maybe civilian ro-ro ships with artificial port facility.

4, the threat to those transport ships are mainly saturated ashm strikesm either from hapoon launchers on TW island, or from US bombers (LRASM & SLAMER) , or from US surface ships (Tomahawk blk Va MST). Those strike will come through from time to time. How to disrupt the kill chain of those strike and protect the transport ships? of course to place heavy air defense in the strait is one thing, 2nd is to prevent those ships from being correctly targeted, 3rd thing is in case a missile hit, limit the damage

5, which is why i think a 4k ton LST is very easy to target (because of its size to begin with), and carry too much cargo that if sunk, an entire mechanized company is lost with it. In that regard a 30k ro-ro ship is also just unacceptable risk

6, which is why i propose using small LCU (with high speed and towed decoy) to move troops or supply instead, you can build hundreds of them quickly with relative small effort, and when sending them out, it is really difficult to tell which ship is the one loaded with cargo and which one is decoy or simply empty ship, and assuming the worst when a missile somehow hit the correct target, loss is limited to a platoon or even just a squad.

No. I said that the LCAC can only cross the strait once, for it to return to the mainland as soon as the troops landed, it must necessarily resupply before returning.

What about the case when LCAC is released halfway from LPD/LHD? are they able to return without resupply? if yes, how so?

And in that case, where would the air support be?
And the mines? Will they land on the beach without carrying out the location and removal of the mines?
What if they are tracked? What will you do? Turn back?
What if they are tracked and the enemy launches missiles from coastal batteries? Will they have punctual defenses to neutralize the attack?

like described above, i think these problems will need to be dealt with no matter how you conduct your landing

Excellent. In addition to putting amphibious landing ships at risk with a high chance of being neutralized the landing on the beach, you would also be putting escort ships, and this considering only the enemy's anti-ship coastal batteries, I am completely disregarding aviation and drones here.

However, as the large amphibious ships operate 50-100 km away from the beach, the SAMs batteries located on the mainland are able to adequately protect without having to have a destroyer acting as an air defense,

are you suggesting only rely on coastal SAM to provide air defense in the strait?? that in my opinion is not feasible at all.
As a basic principle, the primary AA units should be positioned between the threat and the HVT, not 50km behind the HVT.
in a landing scenario it could be complicated but i would place the AA ships as close to the transport ships as possible, assuming direct coastal artillery threat is already gone from earlier bombardment
 

caohailiang

Junior Member
Registered Member
And if you're talking about terminal guidance for an AShM, say the decoy works.
In the Taiwan Straits, there will be hundreds? of ships involved. A missile will end up finding a new target anyway.

if the decoy work, the missile will hit the decoy, not finding another target
 

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
1, part of OTH landing concept means to park the LPD/LHD at minimum 30km off shore so land based radar cannot detect them thus avoid being attacked, but instead send in LCAC to shore. The risk for LPD/LHD might be reduced, but for those LCAC, they will anyway operate under artillery, mine or ashm while approaching the shore making their delivery.
An LST like the Type 072A can only carry a maximum of two helicopters depending on what it is carrying, some other LST models do not have this capability. LCAC/LCU vehicles are not capable of carrying any helicopters as are LSM and other smaller amphibious ships. So just look at the difference. An LPD can carry 4 fully armed helicopters (has hangars for maintenance) and an LHD can carry 30 helicopters (has hangars for maintenance). In an amphibious assault, the LHD and LPD complement each other. But how are they different from other amphibious ships?

Much difference.

First - LCACs, LSTs, LSMs, hovercrafts and other amphibious vehicles lack coordination capabilities and C2 (command and control) networks to organize and maintain control of the execution of the amphibious operation. If an amphibious task force does not have these ships acting as coordinators of the amphibious assault, the planning and execution of the amphibious operation is very likely to go wrong. Americans aware of this immense contribution in an amphibious operation execution have in their inventory 4 LCCs that act as coordinators of an amphibious fleet, in addition to having LHD/LHA that could also act in this way. If a Marine force does not rely on these amphibious ships for the operation, the PLA would have to coordinate the entire land-based amphibious offensive of the mainland, which would be inherently inefficient and plausibly high likely to go awry in executing the amphibious operation.

Second - LHD/LPDs have hangars for helicopter maintenance. This may seem like a non-existent approach, but the chances of many helicopters having problems is high, not all helicopters can be expected to be successful in the operation, and as probably some helicopters will take off from the mainland, and in the middle of the way there may be some problem. caused, can land on the LHD/LPDs for maintenance, the helicopters originally assigned to these ships could return to the mainland if there are not enough places for all the helicopters on the ship. This represents enormous operational flexibility.

Third - LHD/LPD can replenish LCAC/LCUs. An LCAC/LCU when it lands on the beach and the troops are all landed, the LCAC needs to return, if there is no ship like LHD/LPD, the LCAC/LCU will not be able to return to the mainland, but if an LHD/LPD is acting at a safe distance of 40-50 km from the coast, the LCACs will have enough range to return to the ship, refuel and start operating again, landing more troops on the enemy coast. Hypothetically, the LCAC/LCU can be supported by the other LST/LSM ships or helicopters carrying the supplies/fuels, but this would mean less fuel for the landing forces and more for the LCAC vehicles/LCUs, which would limit logistically. the amphibious force on the beach.

There are other factors.
2, in TW scenario, considering width of the strait is only 80 miles, why bother to use LPD/LHD to take LCAC half way and having the trouble of unloading them, why not just send the LCAC shore to shore?
View the answer above, please.
3, considering limited number/lift of LCAC, follow up troops (after beach head is secured) will probably need to be transported TO SHORE by other measures, such as LST, LSM or smaller LCU, or maybe civilian ro-ro ships with artificial port facility.
Yes. I agree with that. This is exactly why I consider the LST/LSM and other smaller amphibious ships as a second-tier landing force when the beachhead is secure. The problem here is the approach of using these ships as a first-tier force, which is conceptually flawed.
4, the threat to those transport ships are mainly saturated ashm strikesm either from hapoon launchers on TW island, or from US bombers (LRASM & SLAMER) , or from US surface ships (Tomahawk blk Va MST). Those strike will come through from time to time. How to disrupt the kill chain of those strike and protect the transport ships? of course to place heavy air defense in the strait is one thing, 2nd is to prevent those ships from being correctly targeted, 3rd thing is in case a missile hit, limit the damage
I would disregard any US intervention in the PLA's amphibious operation. It would take at least two weeks for the Americans to organize the forces, during which time analysts expect the PLA to have all troops landed and that would be enough time for the PLA to conquer Taiwan. Full amphibious landing of all echelons would be done in 2-4 days, PLA has distance from the island as a force multiplier, so landing large amounts of troops in a short time by distance is a reasonable consideration.

US bombers need escort and also resupply, PACAF has insufficient numbers to withstand a PLA intervention in Taiwan. The logistical effort to commit other aircraft from other COCOMs (Combatant Commands) would be required and would need many more tanker aircraft. Even assembling the necessary logistical war effort to intervene in Taiwan would take the time needed to capture the island.

In fact, I see US and allied forces not as an attempt to defend the island, but to recapture the island, because by the time US and allied forces are prepared for a high-intensity war scenario, China would already have captured the island.

Some may claim that the PLA's preparation for the invasion of Taiwan may be being spotted by satellites, since it is impossible to hide large movements, this is certainly an undeniable truth, but the PLA has the advantage of being very close to the Theater of Operations (TO ), actually 130 km to be exact. Compare a full US and allied logistical effort to the PLA, surely that the PLA logistical efforts would be ready much faster than enemy forces, not only because it was on their own territory, but because the TO would be very close to the continent.

The biggest problem I see is Taiwan's anti-ship missiles and mines. It is to be expected that the PLA will attack some coastal battery positions with its ballistic and cruise missiles as well as guided and precision bombs, but the chances of many batteries surviving are still high, which could pose a risk to the landing forces, therefore, the PLA would have to rely on close support aircraft and drones. Regarding mines, dedicated ships can play a role, but I would expect some helicopters to play that role like the MH-60S(AN/ASQ-235 Airborne Mine Neutralization System (AMNS)) which has this role.
 

Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
5, which is why i think a 4k ton LST is very easy to target (because of its size to begin with), and carry too much cargo that if sunk, an entire mechanized company is lost with it. In that regard a 30k ro-ro ship is also just unacceptable risk
Here is already another argument. It's about the difference between an LST and an LCU. An LST carries between 2-10x more load than an LCU, depending on an LCU's configuration. For example, an LST Type 072A carries between 500-1000 tons of payload, a small LCU (100-200 tons) only carries 50 tons, a medium LCU (500 tons) carries between 200-300 tons and a large LCU (900 tons). tons) carries between 400-500 tons.

I see more of these ships as second-tier landing ships, where amphibious forces would have already landed on the beach and gained a safe beachhead for the amphibious landing of second-tier forces. Regardless of analyzing which ship is more vulnerable and which ship carries more cargo, the fact is that these ships will operate with second-tier forces, the vast majority of landing forces will be supported by these ships, but only when they manage to conquer the beach and the TO is safe for the massive landing of troops and equipment.
6, which is why i propose using small LCU (with high speed and towed decoy) to move troops or supply instead, you can build hundreds of them quickly with relative small effort, and when sending them out, it is really difficult to tell which ship is the one loaded with cargo and which one is decoy or simply empty ship, and assuming the worst when a missile somehow hit the correct target, loss is limited to a platoon or even just a squad.
An LCU is not as fast as you think. Only the small LCUs which have a speed of 22 knots, the medium LCU and the small size LCU have exactly the same speed as an LST Type 072A, around 12-14 knots, speed is not the differentiating factor between the different types of amphibious ships. In reality, an LST can also contain towed bait, hardly a large amphibious ship will not have countermeasures to protect itself, it becomes convenient that an amphibious ship will have in addition to the chaff buoy decoy system, it will also have towed torpedo decoy.
What about the case when LCAC is released halfway from LPD/LHD? are they able to return without resupply? if yes, how so?
Of course yes. Read the comment above. An LCAC can return to the LHD/LPD because these ships operate between 30-40 km from the TO, this is more than enough range for an LCAC to land amphibious forces on the enemy beach and return to the LHD/LPD to resupply and land more troops and equipment on the enemy beach and so on. An LCAC will not be able to make the return, because its reach makes crossing impossible.
like described above, i think these problems will need to be dealt with no matter how you conduct your landing
I have already described that there is a difference just above.
are you suggesting only rely on coastal SAM to provide air defense in the strait?? that in my opinion is not feasible at all.
In theory it is feasible, but I am certainly not suggesting this, because one or more CSG will be working with the amphibious forces. But hypothetically, as long as it utilizes the cooperative engagement capability, a long-range coastal SAM is able to shoot down cruise missiles that are heading towards LHD/LPDs that are only 50-60 km away from the launchers. Obviously this cannot be trusted, but as long as one uses the capabilities of cooperative engagement that include not only naval radars, but drones and aviation, the possibility exists.
As a basic principle, the primary AA units should be positioned between the threat and the HVT, not 50km behind the HVT.
Yes I agree. I only used a hypothetical situation if we analyze the argument that the LHD/LPD doesn't have dense enough defenses to contain saturation attacks.
in a landing scenario it could be complicated but i would place the AA ships as close to the transport ships as possible, assuming direct coastal artillery threat is already gone from earlier bombardment
No. It is not possible to expect that even with a salvo of missiles and guided bombs it will completely eliminate all coastal batteries, and not to mention that the enemy force will probably have reserve forces in case of losses.
 
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