I think you overestimate these "reservists"
PLA setting foot on the island + internet/mobile communications cut off + electricity cut off + supplies cut off = surrender
Why fight them when you can make them surrender..
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
PLA setting foot on the island + internet/mobile communications cut off + electricity cut off + supplies cut off = surrender
Why fight them when you can make them surrender..
solarz
Brigadier
That's a gargantuan if.
That is the plan. I've already outlined this scenario with some details.
But suppose you have some reservists who actually stockpile supplies and then bunker down in cities?
And you can't avoid all the cities in Taiwan. If you look at a map of Taiwan, there are urban areas everywhere, and most of the population is urbanised. Taiwan is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, and it is mostly mountainous so people are crowded along a narrow coastline. Plus those urban areas are the primary target of any conquest or invasion.
Yes. But they are certainly motivated to do so. And it's better to plan for a worst case scenario in say 5 years time.
If China does decide to invade one day, it would have to be in overwhelmingly force so that it is a quick campaign.
solarz
Brigadier
Certainly one shouldn't underestimate ones enemies, but one should not overestimate them either.
China is already capable of a quick victory irrespective of US intervention.
lcloo
Captain
Considering the amount of training given to regular conscripts in Taiwan, and the follow up training for the reservists (if there is any), those so called millions of reservists are not much better than Taiwan's retired civilian police.
I expect urban battles would be mainly between PLA special forces against career soldies of Taiwan (not those conscripts and reservists), and these battles would be mostly mopping up operations by PLA after they secure control of the cities and towns.
Also no one in Taiwan wants to fight if they are very clear that there is no hope of winning a war with PLA. They won't fight to deaths like those WW2 Japanese soldiers.
A very classic war scenario is always to open an escape corridor to give the opponents the choice of fighting to death or to retreat.
Opening up a safe escape air corridor in major airports would weaken the will to fight, especially those millions of reservists.
I expect urban battles would be mainly between PLA special forces against career soldies of Taiwan (not those conscripts and reservists), and these battles would be mostly mopping up operations by PLA after they secure control of the cities and towns.
Also no one in Taiwan wants to fight if they are very clear that there is no hope of winning a war with PLA. They won't fight to deaths like those WW2 Japanese soldiers.
A very classic war scenario is always to open an escape corridor to give the opponents the choice of fighting to death or to retreat.
Opening up a safe escape air corridor in major airports would weaken the will to fight, especially those millions of reservists.
I think photos here help to explain the situation:
Can't have the recruits get too hot under the sun, they will cry and report up the chain of command for bullying.
To be fair, ROC warplanners know these conscripts are not war fighting machines, so when it comes to facing the PLA the plan is to use them ala Nazi Germany's Volkssturm. They're going to issue them each a simple anti tank missile and get them to be meat shield and man the line, no fancy manoeuvre warfare. I personally think that sort of formation won't last long under fire and won't be able to hold the line worth a damn.
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lcloo
Captain
Extract:-
Several officers who have participated in the computer-simulated phase of the annual in recent years also pointed out this obvious flaw. That raises the question of how many of the Taiwanese military’s simulations of its own ability to hold off a Chinese invasion are based on now purely hypothetical soldiers.
These personnel issues would not be so serious if the military had a functional reserve force. On paper, this enormous reserve force is to be more than 2 million strong.
Just about everything in these talking points is pure fantasy, according to James Huang, a retired army lieutenant colonel who has since become a prolific writer on defense issues and military history, with on Facebook. Huang said there was “no way whatsoever” any of Taiwan’s reserves would reinforce existing field units, despite the proven success of the system elsewhere in the world, especially Israel.
That’s the case regardless of whether the reservist is a conscript with four months’ training or a five-year veteran paratrooper just discharged from the special forces. The established practice of Taiwan’s Reserve Command, according to Huang, is not to send reservists back to their previous units but to lump everyone together into the newly activated reserve infantry brigades that possess no specialty, no vehicles, and no equipment except rifles (often older types) and are led by called-up reservist officers who have little experience commanding such ad hoc units.
In theory, all soldiers and officers (both conscripts and volunteers) are automatically enrolled as reservists on being discharged from active service. They are called up at most once every two years by the Reserve Command to receive refresher training for five to seven days. In practice, such training rarely consists of more than just basic drills and a short practice session at the rifle range. A reservist corporal who was a veteran M60 tank gunner, for example, will be activated only as an infantry rifleman even if one of the army’s active armor brigades has tanks sitting unmanned in the base.
“If we go to war, the soldiers currently on roster are all that we have,” said Lin, the lieutenant colonel, who pointed out that he had never heard of any plan to reinforce units he commanded with reserve soldiers. “At best, they might start combining depleted units. We are supposed to fight until everyone is dead or can’t fight anymore.”
Several officers who have participated in the computer-simulated phase of the annual in recent years also pointed out this obvious flaw. That raises the question of how many of the Taiwanese military’s simulations of its own ability to hold off a Chinese invasion are based on now purely hypothetical soldiers.
These personnel issues would not be so serious if the military had a functional reserve force. On paper, this enormous reserve force is to be more than 2 million strong.
Once activated, these reservists are supposed to fill existing shortages across regular field units, and reinforce casualties, while creating fresh reserve formations from virtually nothing to bolster overall defense, according to the ’s own words.
Just about everything in these talking points is pure fantasy, according to James Huang, a retired army lieutenant colonel who has since become a prolific writer on defense issues and military history, with on Facebook. Huang said there was “no way whatsoever” any of Taiwan’s reserves would reinforce existing field units, despite the proven success of the system elsewhere in the world, especially Israel.
That’s the case regardless of whether the reservist is a conscript with four months’ training or a five-year veteran paratrooper just discharged from the special forces. The established practice of Taiwan’s Reserve Command, according to Huang, is not to send reservists back to their previous units but to lump everyone together into the newly activated reserve infantry brigades that possess no specialty, no vehicles, and no equipment except rifles (often older types) and are led by called-up reservist officers who have little experience commanding such ad hoc units.
In theory, all soldiers and officers (both conscripts and volunteers) are automatically enrolled as reservists on being discharged from active service. They are called up at most once every two years by the Reserve Command to receive refresher training for five to seven days. In practice, such training rarely consists of more than just basic drills and a short practice session at the rifle range. A reservist corporal who was a veteran M60 tank gunner, for example, will be activated only as an infantry rifleman even if one of the army’s active armor brigades has tanks sitting unmanned in the base.
“If we go to war, the soldiers currently on roster are all that we have,” said Lin, the lieutenant colonel, who pointed out that he had never heard of any plan to reinforce units he commanded with reserve soldiers. “At best, they might start combining depleted units. We are supposed to fight until everyone is dead or can’t fight anymore.”
How do you define victory?
If we're talking about China achieve air superiority over the skies of Taiwan and maritime superiority, then yes, it will likely take a few days.
This is already a huge deterrent because Taiwan can be systematically dismantled.
But at the current time, if China was to launch an invasion of Taiwan, I see it as 50:50 as to whether there would be a quick Taiwanese collapse.
If not, it would likely end up being an extended campaign lasting weeks and therefore inviting a US response.
Of course, this assessment will be different in 5 years. And in 10-20 year's time, I don't see Taiwan being able to mount any sort of effective military resistance AND the US declining to go to war with China which has a nuclear arsenal comparable to the US.
But as previously stated, China can live with the status quo, so there's no need to actually invade even if China has the capability to.
There are very real costs to an actual war and it will disrupt domestic economic development.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
How can they contest the landings if they are all hunker down in the cities preparing for urban combat? If they are not contesting the landings, the PLA can land with giant inflatable rubber duckies for all the difference it would make.
Big ticket LHDs and LHAs are door kickers designed to smash open the beachheads as quickly and as effectively as possible. After the beachhead has been secured and breakout achieved, follow on forces can land via whatever means necessary while the LHDs and LHAs are free to return to port because it’s game over by that point.
If any die hards try to hold out in the cities, the PLA can send it as many troops as needed.
And Taiwan’s reservists will just be live target practice for the PLA if they are stupid enough to show up given how pathetically little training they get.