PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
I find it doubtful that Philippines in its current form will ever attack China. While Japan and even SK (despite the NK issue) have fairly impressive forces, Philippines just doesn't have anything to hold against a Chinese counterattack.

If the Philippines joins an American invasion, that would essentially force America to devote a lot of forces solely to babysit them and delay Chinese actions against their undefended rear lines. While Philippines does provide a good geographical staging ground for invasion, the fact that US forces would be split could outweigh or even far worsen American chances.
What they don't realise is that hosting American forces means that they are a party to the war. For many years the world has watched US troops attack countries using bases located in third countries. These third countries have never faced any consequences for being complicit in crimes. China needs to explain to the Philippines that hosting American forces that then attack China means that they are not a neutral country anymore and would be at war with China.

China should further explain to the Philippines what it means to be at war with China. They will certainly have to lose some territory and potentially come under short term occupation like Japan post WW2.

I think they simply don't know about these risks and require education
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
What they don't realise is that hosting American forces means that they are a party to the war. For many years the world has watched US troops attack countries using bases located in third countries. These third countries have never faced any consequences for being complicit in crimes. China needs to explain to the Philippines that hosting American forces that then attack China means that they are not a neutral country anymore and would be at war with China.

China should further explain to the Philippines what it means to be at war with China. They will certainly have to lose some territory and potentially come under short term occupation like Japan post WW2.

I think they simply don't know about these risks and require education
They would only be a party to the war if the American forces there actually attack China. And would the Philippines really allow that, without having any noticeable forces of their own?

Say what you want about the IJN, but on a ship to ship level, their stuff is near parity with China's, and they have more than a few of them. So as a Japanese leader, you can at least believe that with advantageous tactics and local numerical superiority, they can win battles at sea.

In contrast, Philippines doesn't even have something that could fight a 054A directly.

For US to involve the Philippines in a war would be like 2 adults fighting and 1 adult involving their 3 year old toddler in the conflict. Sure, it brings an extra body, but you'd also need to devote considerable energy solely towards protecting it.
 

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
They would only be a party to the war if the American forces there actually attack China. And would the Philippines really allow that, without having any noticeable forces of their own?

Say what you want about the IJN, but on a ship to ship level, their stuff is near parity with China's, and they have more than a few of them. So as a Japanese leader, you can at least believe that with advantageous tactics and local numerical superiority, they can win battles at sea.

In contrast, Philippines doesn't even have something that could fight a 054A directly.

For US to involve the Philippines in a war would be like 2 adults fighting and 1 adult involving their 3 year old toddler in the conflict. Sure, it brings an extra body, but you'd also need to devote considerable energy solely towards protecting it.
My point is that they don't realise that by allowing an American attack from their territory they're risking their whole country. They have been led to believe that they can provide a safe harbour to American aggression without facing consequences. As long as they believe that they can safely behave in an aggressive way, they will not be deterred from doing so

For example, when American drone strikes in Libya or Syria use the Ramstein air base, then Germany itself becomes a legal target for retaliation. They just don't know it, because no recent victim of US aggression has had the ability to strike back at countries supporting aggression. According to the Hague conventions, neutral states even have to intern soldiers of belligerent states, so even if a country doesn't allow the use of its territory for aggression, simply hosting Americans could be argued to make an attack on them legal, if China chooses to do so.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
My point is that they don't realise that by allowing an American attack from their territory they're risking their whole country. They have been led to believe that they can provide a safe harbour to American aggression without facing consequences. As long as they believe that they can safely behave in an aggressive way, they will not be deterred from doing so

For example, when American drone strikes in Libya or Syria use the Ramstein air base, then Germany itself becomes a legal target for retaliation. They just don't know it, because no recent victim of US aggression has had the ability to strike back at countries supporting aggression. According to the Hague conventions, neutral states even have to intern soldiers of belligerent states, so even if a country doesn't allow the use of its territory for aggression, simply hosting Americans could be argued to make an attack on them legal, if China chooses to do so.
Until we abrogate the US -PHILIPPINE MDT, we're obligated to assist the US.:mad:

The Mutual Defense Treaty between the Republic of the Philippines and the United States of America (MDT) was signed on August 30, 1951 by their representatives in
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. The
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
has eight articles and requires both nations to support each other if another party attacks the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
or the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
My point is that they don't realise that by allowing an American attack from their territory they're risking their whole country. They have been led to believe that they can provide a safe harbour to American aggression without facing consequences. As long as they believe that they can safely behave in an aggressive way, they will not be deterred from doing so

For example, when American drone strikes in Libya or Syria use the Ramstein air base, then Germany itself becomes a legal target for retaliation. They just don't know it, because no recent victim of US aggression has had the ability to strike back at countries supporting aggression. According to the Hague conventions, neutral states even have to intern soldiers of belligerent states, so even if a country doesn't allow the use of its territory for aggression, simply hosting Americans could be argued to make an attack on them legal, if China chooses to do so.
We can't be sure that they actually don't know. Basic logic would tell anyone that attacking the world's no1 or no2 military that's right next to you is much different from attacking a nobody third world country that has barely any equipment. Of course, among some people, basic logic is in short supply, but that doesn't mean they're necessarily that stupid.

Leaving aside the logistics of whether Manila's leaders have basic logic or not, that doesn't change the fact that they would very likely be a pure liability to US' invasion plans.

Unlike Japan which actually brings forces to the table, Philippines has nothing. Even a couple of 054As and a landing dock slipping through could in theory decapitate important Philippines' installations. US would need to massively lengthen their front, which reduces the opportunity window of a breakthrough towards Taiwan.

To me, it sounds like the idea of involving the Philippines is a double edged sword at best, and a seppuku sword at worst.

Having them there doesn't massively help US' game plan (rapid sea/air victory and fait accompli through Taiwan landing before Chinese mobilization), but it can ruin US offensive both in terms of PR (if China counterattacks and makes huge gains/decapitation strikes on the Philippines) and on strategic level (Philippines would be an undefended rear line, unless US commits massive defense forces there, which dilutes their offensive capable forces).
 

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
China should focus efforts to remove US presence in Philippines during AR. Bloodshed and destruction on Taiwan isn't optimal, showing bloodshed and destruction of Philippines to the Wanwanese is probably more optimal. Remember Filipinos aren't 同胞, except for people like @ansy1968, hopefully huaqiao will be smart enough to recognize the signs before the big fight is about to go down.

Ultimately China's goal is to remove US hegemony from (west) pacific, AR is just a part of that goal.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Top