PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

aqh said:

So that means Taiwan might optimistically for the US have a few weeks at most? The US would have to then rush through the grinder that the fires and sensor complex with the 1IC.

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Even by 2030-2035, I am still uncertain whether China or U.S hold the military advantage in the 1IC. It is going to be a tough conflict. Maybe stalemale.

U.S is able to roll out 2000 autonomous drone per every 2 years. U.S has a few loyalman drones for testing already

bebops said:

Even by 2030-2035, I am still uncertain whether China or U.S hold the military advantage in the 1IC. It is going to be a tough conflict. Maybe stalemale.

U.S is able to roll out 2000 autonomous drone per every 2 years. U.S has a few loyalman drones for testing already

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China can make more, and has better high end drones in the pipeline as well. US can present a danger, but outbuilding China, even when China isn't in high spending mode, is a very unlikely threat vector.

aqh said:

So that means Taiwan might optimistically for the US have a few weeks at most? The US would have to then rush through the grinder that the fires and sensor complex with the 1IC.

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I noticed you are super interested in military situation around Taiwan. Are you being paid for this or are you just writing a thesis?

Obsessed with it tbh.

bebops said:

Even by 2030-2035, I am still uncertain whether China or U.S hold the military advantage in the 1IC. It is going to be a tough conflict. Maybe stalemate. ... U.S is able to roll out 2000 autonomous drone per every 2 years.

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I believe you are referring to the program which, if Congress approves, begins in FY2024 and is a research and development effort only (no production) into FY2028. At that point a competitive acquisition for production will be initiated. SecAirForce Frank Kendall provided a notional production rate of 200 per year. As a historical note, a decade ago he described premature production of the F-35 as 'acquisition malpractice' and earlier this month stated his intent to avoid that for the NGAD platform of which CCA is a component.

From a production comparison I will note the Type 054B's shipyard ordered its steel in Spring 2020 and had that steel in the water this Fall. China's PLAAF, PLAN and CCG (and probably MM) will have autonomous drone deployments earlier in greater quantity and wider capabilities than America's USAF, USN and USCG. And if that is a determining military advantage, then there won't be a stalemate.

What are China's capabilities in the offensive deployment of naval mines?

bebops said:

Even by 2030-2035, I am still uncertain whether China or U.S hold the military advantage in the 1IC. It is going to be a tough conflict. Maybe stalemale.

U.S is able to roll out 2000 autonomous drone per every 2 years. U.S has a few loyalman drones for testing already

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The US is great at creating new "initiatives," only a fraction of which make it to completion. Previously, they had the "Digital Century Series" initiative where the next gen fighter was supposed to be built as a family very rapidly using digital designs. It got axed last year.

Automonous, attritible systems are the future but there is no chance the US will be able to build it cheaply at large scale. In fiscal year 2024, the USA is spending $934.3 million to buy 34 tomahawk cruise missiles. That is $27 million each for a non-stealth,1.5-ton class, single-use, 1000nm ranged aerial vehicle using 1980s designs with no radar, no EW and limited electrooptics.

Jason_ said:

In fiscal year 2024, the USA is spending $934.3 million to buy 34 tomahawk cruise missiles.

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That is $27 million each for a non-stealth,1.5-ton class, single-use, 1000nm ranged aerial vehicle using 1980s designs with no radar, no EW and limited electrooptics.

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Was curious about the cost per missile you quoted so I looked up the link you provided.



They are not paying that amount of money to procure 34 missiles. As you can see most of it goes to RDT&E (MST+JMEWS) as well as and providing a mid-life re-certification for it.

Interesting developments that I'm surprised haven't been posted yet.



This would be outside Chinese long ranged rocket artillery range but well within cruise missile or BM range, however the US might just be content to use it to stage their mobile optionally manned containerised tomahawk/NSM to provide area denial south of Taiwan.


Edit: I'll note that this news was already posted on the SCS thread, but I think we should focus on the strategic implications rather than the political side.

tankphobia said:

Interesting developments that I'm surprised haven't been posted yet.

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View attachment 118077

This would be outside Chinese long ranged rocket artillery range but well within cruise missile or BM range, however the US might just be content to use it to stage their mobile optionally manned containerised tomahawk/NSM to provide area denial south of Taiwan.
View attachment 118078

Edit: I'll note that this news was already posted on the SCS thread, but I think we should focus on the strategic implications rather than the political side.

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I find it doubtful that Philippines in its current form will ever attack China. While Japan and even SK (despite the NK issue) have fairly impressive forces, Philippines just doesn't have anything to hold against a Chinese counterattack.

If the Philippines joins an American invasion, that would essentially force America to devote a lot of forces solely to babysit them and delay Chinese actions against their undefended rear lines. While Philippines does provide a good geographical staging ground for invasion, the fact that US forces would be split could outweigh or even far worsen American chances.