PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

antiterror13

Brigadier
when it comes down to fighting Carrier group, it is a numbers game. If a single carrier group is equipped with 500 missile, you need 500 hypersonic missile + other cheap stuff to deplete their inventory.

for example 4 carrier group x 500 missile= 2000 missile.. you need 2000 hypersonic missile to deplete them + 2000 back-up hypersonic missile on stand-by.

I dont think there's a magic bullet to destroy carrier group. one thing for sure is you can deplete their inventory.

always have higher missile stockpile than your enemy and always have higher missile production rate than your enemy, then you win.

and you don't need all expensive missiles, even an old obsolete cheap silkworm missile would do the job to deplete the inventory of CBG missile

Also remember that it takes minimum 2-3 missiles to shot down a missile
 

Chevalier

Senior Member
Registered Member
Chinese planners should be aware that the US is using the Ukraine war not just to get rid of old inventory but also planning how much munitions they would consume in the coming war against China, and tweaking data for their own platforms under EW attack by Russian systems
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Chinese planners should be aware that the US is using the Ukraine war not just to get rid of old inventory but also planning how much munitions they would consume in the coming war against China, and tweaking data for their own platforms under EW attack by Russian systems
While they could use the experience to learn, just like China would do using Russian data, it is still not a planned move nor conductive to the eventual war performance of an American offensive vs China to participate in Ukraine. There is no 4D chess. "getting rid of old inventory" is just cope. In a war vs an economy that outstrips them by a fair bit, US would want everything that can shoot as quickly deployed as possible, to make it's gains a fait accompli before China mobilizes. Depleting missiles and artillery stocks ain't smart.
 

Derpy

Junior Member
Registered Member
Chinese planners should be aware that the US is using the Ukraine war not just to get rid of old inventory but also planning how much munitions they would consume in the coming war against China, and tweaking data for their own platforms under EW attack by Russian systems
Ukraine is like 99% a Land war, do you see major clashes happening between U.S and Chinese ground forces ? How and where ?
 

dingyibvs

Junior Member
Ukraine is like 99% a Land war, do you see major clashes happening between U.S and Chinese ground forces ? How and where ?
One, resources need to be spent to replace the spent ammunition, resources that won't go to fighting a naval/aerial war. Two, you don't always get to fight on the ground that you choose. Some allies of the US who may consider participating in the war may be threatened with a ground war.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
There is no 4D chess. "getting rid of old inventory" is just cope. In a war vs an economy that outstrips them by a fair bit, US would want everything that can shoot as quickly deployed as possible, to make it's gains a fait accompli before China mobilizes. Depleting missiles and artillery stocks ain't smart.
If this war has shown anything, its that the old "logistics win wars" saying is still as much valid as it was thousand of years ago.

All these fancy equipment and weaponry will be quickly consumed in a high intensity war. That's where industrial base matters

Imagine if China was in Russia's case. By year 2 of the war, China would be producing so much weaponry that it would make late WW2 America look like kindergarden.

We talk in these forums about military equipment a lot, but China's biggest strength is its industry. The world probably still cannot comprehend how vast China's industry is.

Just recall how quickly BYD adapted its production lines and then ramped up to produce masks during Covid and how by the end of it, it was one of the biggest mask producers... Compare that to Ford and you will understand what I am saying
 

HighGround

Junior Member
Registered Member
Financial sanctions in a TW war or blockade scenario:

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I love this part.

The long-standing guardrails around the China-Taiwan status quo have weakened. Intensifying US-China geopolitical tensions, China’s increased use of military and economic tools to put pressure on Taiwan, Beijing’s draconian handling of Hong Kong, and evolving Taiwanese perspectives on their national identity and relationship with the mainland have all contributed to rising tensions. Taiwan’s presidential elections set for early 2024 increase the risk of escalation, as do both a rancorous US debate on China and political anxiety in Beijing in the face of a deteriorating economic outlook.

If what Beijing did in Hong Kong is "draconian", what do they think is the "correct" response to mass rioting and a potential color revolution attempt?
 
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