PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Yes, US defense companies are all private and they go for 20% profit margins at the minimum !!

As a result, the US defense budge is actually shrinking every year due to extreme high inflation !

The profit margin is fixed.

The issue is, as raised by other posters, is that the costs are poorly controlled.

As mentioned, the work is often spread out amongst different states. Now the government has to pay an engineer's hotel, car rental, airfare, per diem, etc. to visit different suppliers in different places.

In China, they often have worker's dorms and canteens. You go to work in a shuttle bus.

The other problem is accountability.

The US has the GAO to examine these costs, and they are actually quite good at their job. However, the GAO doesn't have any actual authority besides producing reports. If no one acts on the information, or if there isn't enough stink about it, then it can be swept under the rug.
 

Broccoli

Senior Member
I don't see this happening.

For example, to shoot down a DF-17 ($2 Mn), you need a minimum of a Patriot SAM ($4 Mn) which is twice as expensive.
So in an arms race, China can build more DF-17 and watch the US struggle to buy enough Patriots.

In comparison, you can shoot down LRASMs and JSMs with lower cost SAMs or even guns.
An AMRAAM equivalent ($2 Mn) is half the cost of an LRASM
Stinger and equivalent SAMs start at $100K, which is 40x less than an LRASM
The cost of gun ammunition is essentially zero.

Hypersonic missiles are the way to go.

Low flying stealthy cruise missile is much more harder to detect than hypersonic missile what can be seen on both radar and IR systems. Missile launches can be also detected from space while cruise missile dropped from a plane wont as it only uses small jet engine.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Low flying stealthy cruise missile is much more harder to detect than hypersonic missile what can be seen on both radar and IR systems. Missile launches can be also detected from space while cruise missile dropped from a plane wont as it only uses small jet engine.
How stealthy is stealthy? From what angle?

RCS is different by aspect/band and nothing can be all aspect, full spectrum stealthy by shaping alone. If it isn't stealthy from the bottom or top aspect - as almost nothing is due to the need for control surfaces and fuselage - then it can be shot down from above by CAP and or shot down when it overflies an unexpected SAM or AA gun site.

Nothing prevents a hypersonic missile (especially an unpowered glider stage since it doesn't need wings or an engine) from also having a small RCS, with the difference that even when detected there might be nothing that you can do about it since it is flying too high for guns, too fast for standard SAMs, too fast to move the target away if possible at all, and you can only rely on 1v1 terminal phase interception with the most expensive specialied SAM munitions.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
How stealthy is stealthy? From what angle?

RCS is different by aspect/band and nothing can be all aspect, full spectrum stealthy by shaping alone. If it isn't stealthy from the bottom or top aspect - as almost nothing is due to the need for control surfaces and fuselage - then it can be shot down from above by CAP and or shot down when it overflies an unexpected SAM or AA gun site.

Nothing prevents a hypersonic missile (especially an unpowered glider stage since it doesn't need wings or an engine) from also having a small RCS, with the difference that even when detected there might be nothing that you can do about it since it is flying too high for guns, too fast for standard SAMs, too fast to move the target away if possible at all, and you can only rely on 1v1 terminal phase interception with the most expensive specialied SAM munitions.
Imho the most interesting development is the CJ-100 missiles, which seem to have managed to boost up a stealthy cruise missile to 4-5 mach. It's likely highly expensive and there isn't much of the CJ-100 deployed. However, if it works as advertised, it would be one of the key weapons in any Taiwan defense scenario.

The DF-17 and DF-21/26 are chaff weapons, the former is produced at same cost as Tomahawk. Likewise, the CJ-10 missiles are even cheaper. Technically the DF-17 might work similar to the Avangard, but unlike the Avangard, it is not an one of a kind weapon, it's cost allows for mass use.

In order for a successful US invasion, multiple aircraft carrier groups need to be able to enter the vicinity of Taiwan and then operate there until enough troops have been deposited to launch further offensives. If only 1 or 2 US CV or large amounts of escort ships are sunk early on, there won't be a way to supply the American forces.

In this environment, China will launch all the older type kinzhal equivalents along with newer HGVs at the invasion fleet. We do not know if the latest SM can shoot down HGVs, but even if it could, it the midst of this battle, there would also be sea skimmers coming in at hypersonic speeds.

If just a few missiles get through to the US carriers, the whole attack might as well be scuttled in terms of its momentum. Especially after seeing latest block Patriot failing to take on air breathing ALBMs over Kiev, China would have greater confidence that it's missiles can scuttle an American force before US even manages to attack in earnest.
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
when it comes down to fighting Carrier group, it is a numbers game. If a single carrier group is equipped with 500 missile, you need 500 hypersonic missile + other cheap stuff to deplete their inventory.

for example 4 carrier group x 500 missile= 2000 missile.. you need 2000 hypersonic missile to deplete them + 2000 back-up hypersonic missile on stand-by.

I dont think there's a magic bullet to destroy carrier group. one thing for sure is you can deplete their inventory.

always have higher missile stockpile than your enemy and always have higher missile production rate than your enemy, then you win.
 
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FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
when it comes down to fighting Carrier group, it is a numbers game. If a single carrier group is equipped with 500 missile, you need 500 hypersonic missile + other cheap stuff to deplete their inventory.

for example 4 carrier group x 500 missile= 2000 missile.. you need 2000 hypersonic missile to deplete them + 2000 back-up hypersonic missile on stand-by.

I dont think there's a magic bullet to destroy carrier group. one thing for sure is you can deplete their inventory.

Not sure what makes you think it has a 100% hit rate.
 
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