doubt it, the CCP is increasingly working on its own timetable, not contingent on what Taiwan does. DPP or KMT, there will be no war in 2024 or immediately beyond, because the current five year plan will still be ongoing.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
hahaha Kevin Rudd, don't be a drongo mate, what a heap of snags, Don't be a larrikin cause it make you a Galah....lol
The whole article is full of meaningless content.
The author just wants to say one word：”In the meantime, America and Taiwan face the challenge of building up effective levels of deterrence, so that when Xi’s preferred timetable reaches its moment of decision, the PLA will have no choice but to advise him that the military risks are still too great to launch an invasion. In Washington, DC, and in allied capitals around Asia, the goal over this next dangerous decade will be to raise those risks to the degree that Xi continues to think twice.“
To put it more clearly, let the United States and its allies increase military spending and send more planes and warships.
Placing large military assets on the front lines may deter the enemy, but there is a risk of immediate destruction.
How much more military spending can they increase to "balance"?Let the Japanese raise the consumption tax to 100%?Or let the Federal Reserve print more money?Are Australians going to buy several aircraft carriers next?As for Taiwanese, they still have a lot of pineapples and groupers to clear.
He'd better understand that China's future generation may not be so patient.
There's understandably a lot of talk in the West about deterring a mainland invasion of Taiwan after the events in Ukraine, but it's unclear what are the specifics that may be done. Deterrence, as always, is about capability and intention. It's unclear to me what capability may be mustered up that the West couldn't at Ukraine, against a more formidable foe that's growing in capability much faster than Russia at that. As for intentions, actions speak louder than words. It doesn't matter how much the West may proclaim it'd help Taiwan, its actions in Ukraine shows its limits.
Some may argue that with TSMC Taiwan is more important to the West, but the chips TSMC makes are more "luxury" items than necessary items. An iPhone based on Intel or Samsung's 5-10nm process would be unnoticeably inferior for most users. Don't get me wrong, it'd cause a lot of economic turmoil, but the West has clearly shown that security threats trump economic threats judging by the continued sanctions on Russia. I just don't see Taiwan to be as big of a security threat to either the US or Europe as Russian advancement to NATO borders.
Nah, TSMC makes more than just chips only for luxury items and a disruption/destruction of their facilities in Taiwan would be quite catastrophic.
With that said, I think China wants and also can control the amount of damage, while also being able to take Taiwan quite quickly (less than 1 week for majority of Taiwan, maybe a bit of small resistance here and there afterwards, but nothing in the bigger picture).
A fab is the softest of soft targets. Powering down/disconnecting a tool, especially vacuum/chemical tools like an ALD chamber or etch chamber, has to be done carefully.
A bomb through the roof is not a recommended method of powering down a tool. Nor is shooting it with a gun. Which is what will happen if fighting occurs there.
Why would the PLA put a bomb through the roof of such factories?
ROC forces are gonna hideout in them? Possibility that can't be discounted sure, but don't think the chances are that high though.
Any opinion on this former soldier thinks on supposed China's impending Taiwan reunification
As much as you would expect from these kinds of "military analysis" videos on the internet, which includes wrongly pronouncing "Ji-Jin-Pin".
Also did he also just said that China is located in the Southeast Asia?
Furthermore, for a former US Army infantryman and a veteran in Iraq, it is funny that he refer Chinese warships in general as "battleships". Like bruh, anyone with understandings on even the basic naval terminologies would cringe at that.
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