PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Tomboy

Captain
Registered Member
There's no need for the platform to be a battleship.

If it's just a single gun and ammunition system, could you fit this onto a small, low-cost commercial hull?

Such a ship would be operating under land-based SAM and air cover for most of the time anyway, given a 1200km range.
If you just want to strike first island chain targets sure but I imagine the most utility of such a weapon to be beyond the first island chain which necessitates a mobile platform. Anyhow you'll need a ship with a reinforced deck to handle the recoil of such a gun which would basically only be specially designed platforms as no civilian ships would have deck built to such a standard. Also, the autoloading system of such a large gun is likely so large that it is impractical anyways.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
If you just want to strike first island chain targets sure but I imagine the most utility of such a weapon to be beyond the first island chain which necessitates a mobile platform. Anyhow you'll need a ship with a reinforced deck to handle the recoil of such a gun which would basically only be specially designed platforms as no civilian ships would have deck built to such a standard. Also, the autoloading system of such a large gun is likely so large that it is impractical anyways.

There's not actually that many targets in the Second Island Chain.
And until China has a much larger Navy, it's not realistic for such a Chinese artillery ship to get past the Second Island Chain.

That just leaves hundreds of thousands of potential targets within the 1st Island Chain.

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Of course, barrel life is an issue if we're talking about a lot of targets.
Call it 1000 rounds before the barrel needs to be changed out?

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But the biggest practical question is the cost of each munition.
 
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Tomboy

Captain
Registered Member
There's not actually that many targets in the Second Island Chain.
And until China has a much larger Navy, it's not realistic for such a Chinese artillery ship to get past the Second Island Chain.
I'm pretty sure land-based guns cannot even strike some of the first island chain targets from the mainland like Philippines, while PLAN will likely have enough destroyers to form BBGs for long distances deployments by the 2030s anyways. While the density of targets is lower for the second island chain and beyond but there are many important targets that are too far away to be economically hit with high density strikes with ballistic missiles or cruise missiles which is where this ship would come in.

A BBG with two separate traversable turrets armed with these and a few dozen VLS could make for a powerful combatant similar in idea as the Zumwalt but actually workable against peer enemies as you no longer have to sail up close to shore to make strikes.
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
Do y'all think it's possible for China to capture Lai like how the US captured Maduro?

I'm only asking if it is possible, not if it is strategically optimal.

No, Venezuela has no real military power.

Taiwan is stronger than many south America countries where they are still using ancient equipment. But China's rocket and missile force shouldn't have any problems destroying 90% of Taiwan's forces.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I'm pretty sure land-based guns cannot even strike some of the first island chain targets from the mainland like Philippines, while PLAN will likely have enough destroyers to form BBGs for long distances deployments by the 2030s anyways. While the density of targets is lower for the second island chain and beyond but there are many important targets that are too far away to be economically hit with high density strikes with ballistic missiles or cruise missiles which is where this ship would come in.

A BBG with two separate traversable turrets armed with these and a few dozen VLS could make for a powerful combatant similar in idea as the Zumwalt but actually workable against peer enemies as you no longer have to sail up close to shore to make strikes.

Manila is only 1100km from Guangdong province.
From the Chinese SCS islands, the rest of the Philippines could be covered with a munition that has a 1200km range.

From Shanghai, a 1200km munition only reaches the western third of Japan.
But from NorthEast China, a 1200km munition can just about reach all of the Japanese Home Islands that are left.

That is a curious coincidence.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
There's no need for the platform to be a battleship.

If it's just a single gun and ammunition system, could you fit this onto a small, low-cost commercial hull?

Such a ship would be operating under land-based SAM and air cover for most of the time anyway, given a 1200km range.
Again, how can a 400mm gun with a 1200km range with affordable ammunition have very narrow use cases?

It can range over all sorts of targets over the 1st Island Chain. Seaports, runways, factories, power plants, military bases, etc etc

There's literally hundreds of thousands of potential targets.
There's not actually that many targets in the Second Island Chain.
And until China has a much larger Navy, it's not realistic for such a Chinese artillery ship to get past the Second Island Chain.

That just leaves a hundreds of thousands of potential targets within the 1st Island Chain.

I'm not talking about the supergun itself, but the hypothetical naval platform where said supergun could be based on.

The primary (if not the only) purpose of the monitor is to shell enemy coastal installations and provide fire surpport for allied forces conducting amphibious assault operations against enemy beachheads. Other than that, monitors aren't useful at all: They are very slow; They don't have comparable radar, sensor and computing systems; They don't have sufficient endurance for the high-seas; And they have very weak defensive capabilities. This means that monitors are never suited for high-sea operations, hence limiting its flexibility and viability (and why we don't see a lot of them after WW1).

As for the question of commercial hulls - Sorry, but no.

Warships are specifically designed and built such that the hull structures can withstand the continous recoil loads from the main gun's operations, whereby the forces generated by the gun during firing can be distributed and dissipated effectively across the rest of the ship's hull structures.

On the other hand, commercial ships have no such capability - That's why we don't see 76mm or even 100mm gun turrets on Zhong Da 76. Trying to put the 400mm supergun system onto a commercial ship is no different that trying to destroy the ship itself and making the supergun single-use only.



In the meantime, for China's case of the supergun (and taking the claimed range of 1200-1300 kilometers) - If the supergun is only meant to be used against the 1IC, then China doesn't really need to base the supergun on a naval platform at all. This is because most of its intended targets along the 1IC are already readily reachable with land-based system alone. That's why it makes no sense to base a supergun on a monitor.

If there is a need for a ship-based variant, then the PLAN might as well go further and base the supergun(s) on a proper sea-going warship, where the supergun(s) can be moved across the seas and strike targets that are much farther away from the Chinese coastline.

Moreover (albeit hypothetically) - Who says that the supergun must only attack stationary targets? Who says that the supergun cannot fire guided projectiles against (larger-sized) mobile sea targets, if such need arises?
 
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Tomboy

Captain
Registered Member
Moreover (albeit hypothetically) - Who says that the supergun must only attack stationary targets? Who says that the supergun cannot fire guided projectiles against (larger-sized) mobile sea targets, if such need arises?
IMO, while this is possible, this effectively turns the shell into a gun launched missile, of which the benefits are dubious over regular VLS missiles as most of the cost is in the guidance system which are much more expensive for active homing ones compared to just GPS guided ones required for ground assault. It also needs to have a certain degree of maneuverability built in which also increases costs, it may possibly end up similar in cost to a normal missile anyways. The only important benefit I see for this is that if your gun is a railgun or some other propellent-less guns, the space saving from not having a massive booster on your "shells" would mean you can now carry alot more weapons in the same space compared to VLS cells.
 

GZDRefugee

Senior Member
Registered Member
No, Venezuela has no real military power.

Taiwan is stronger than many south America countries where they are still using ancient equipment. But China's rocket and missile force shouldn't have any problems destroying 90% of Taiwan's forces.
I think someone on the inside sold Maduro out. Guy probably woke up with one of his own pressing a gun to his head. And we know how Chinese spies have infiltrated the inner circle of the DPP.
 
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